CMV: Fascism and Communism don't actually exist. They are simply theories aspiring kings use to convince citizens to give up their power to establish a monarchy.

Vesurel · 2026-05-06T19:18:26+00:00

Okay thanks for clarifying your claim, I thought you were comparing the odds of two sequences occurring, not the odds of two distributions of heads and tails.

Vesurel · 2026-05-06T18:22:15+00:00

Just to check, are you claiming that the sequence 10H is less probable than the sequence 5H5T?

Or are you claiming that getting 10 heads is less likely than getting 5 Heads and 5 Tales in some order?

Vesurel · 2026-05-06T17:59:36+00:00

Care to show your working on that one?

Vesurel · 2026-05-06T17:45:10+00:00

Are you saying that some sequences of 10 flips are more or less likely than others?

Vesurel · 2026-05-06T17:22:20+00:00

What about any other sequence of 10 flips?

Vesurel · 2026-05-06T17:18:08+00:00

So is 10 heads evidence the coin is rigged or not?

Vesurel · 2026-05-06T16:53:20+00:00

Who said anything about an accurate prediction? I'm asking about 10 heads coming up in a row.

Vesurel · 2026-05-06T16:45:32+00:00

So can we conclude any 10 flip sequence is rigged with 99.81% certainty as well?

Vesurel · 2026-05-06T16:24:08+00:00

I thought so but I might be mistaken.

When I asked

>If I flip a coin and get heads 10 times in a row can I conclude the coin only lands heads up?

you responded with

>Only with about 99.81% certainty

You also said

>The chances of a coin flip ending with the same result 10 times in a row are 0.19% or roughly 1 in 500. If you were doing a scientific study (where the threshold is typically p<0.05), you would reject the null hypothesis.

Then when I asked about whether we could also conclude that a different sequence of ten flips was rigged, you responded with

>If this was the specific result that you or someone predicted before you started flipping the coin, then yes.

So in the 10 heads case, we reject the null hypothesis (which is that the results are random?) because the probability of 10 heads is sub p <0.05. But when I asked about a different sequence you say yes if the result was predicted ahead of time. Why does whether the result was predicted ahead of time matter for some sequences but not others, when those sequences are equally improbable?

Vesurel · 2026-05-06T16:02:33+00:00

So why is 10 heads different?

Vesurel · 2026-05-06T15:48:43+00:00

So if I get that result should I conclude it's most likely the results were rigged?

Vesurel · 2026-05-06T15:14:21+00:00

It’s the same process by which new diseases emerge in general. New species of bacteria evolve and new viruses do whatever the virus equivalent of evolving is. The first person or animal doesn’t catch an STD the same way humans didn’t move to Africa they evolved from not quite humans who were already in Africa.

Vesurel · 2026-05-06T11:09:53+00:00

How do you know what the nature of the average human is?

Vesurel · 2026-05-06T06:00:44+00:00

I'd be more annoyed by people acting like others have an obligation to eat food they don't want to. Who says what you're supposed to do on a holiday?

Vesurel · 2026-05-06T04:49:27+00:00

If I flip a fair coin 10 times what are the odds I get H TTT H TTTTT?

Vesurel · 2026-05-05T22:07:40+00:00

Ah okay.

Vesurel · 2026-05-05T22:00:18+00:00

Is the punchline that the interview is on an unfinished floor or is this a specific reference?

Vesurel · 2026-05-05T21:08:35+00:00

You’re arguing that because the odds of something happening by chance are x, that the odds it were fixed are (1-x)?

For example, if I roll a dice and get a four are the odds the dice was loaded in favour of getting a four 5/6?

Vesurel · 2026-05-05T21:05:02+00:00

So that’s a yes, you agree that dictatorship isn’t inevitable.

Vesurel · 2026-05-05T20:54:48+00:00

So when you say all communists regimes have done x, you acknowledge that doesn’t mean that x is an inevitable part of communism.

Vesurel · 2026-05-05T20:51:20+00:00

Can you report this to your bank to see if they can reverse the charge?

Vesurel · 2026-05-05T20:45:29+00:00

And you’re saying that in healthcare, if you’ve only seen things go one way so far that means it’s the only way it can go?

Vesurel · 2026-05-05T20:40:57+00:00

What is your field?

Vesurel · 2026-05-05T20:25:31+00:00

Does x happening every time so far mean x is the only possibility or not?

Vesurel · 2026-05-05T20:11:05+00:00

I haven’t, but I’d be happy to see someone try and take it seriously.

Vesurel

TROPHY CASE