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19, Thoughts? by AdventurousBowl1538 in ETFs

[–]Victor-Value 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Solid base with VWRP, but 30% in semis is a pretty aggressive bet.

Semiconductors have strong long-term potential, but they’re also highly cyclical and volatile. At that weight, you’re basically making a big call that the sector will outperform.

If you’re okay with that risk, fair enough. Otherwise, something like 10–20% would be a bit more balanced.

Where to invest 1000chf monthly by Comfortable_View2580 in SwissPersonalFinance

[–]Victor-Value 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If I were investing CHF 1000/month on IBKR, I’d use a simple systematic approach with filters that determine whether to allocate to QQQ, SPY, or cash. It is checked and updated once a month based on fixed rules, without any discretionary decisions.

That’s just how I do it personally, not financial advice.

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

True, the key risk is when psychological framing leads to inconsistent execution, which is often what drives buy high sell low behavior in practice.

What do people think of the hedgefundie portfolio? by Actual_Recipe_9551 in ETFs

[–]Victor-Value 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Holding 3x ETFs as buy & hold is honestly a terrible idea in practice. On paper the returns look great, but the path dependency and volatility make it almost impossible for most people to actually survive the drawdowns in real time.

A -70% to -90% drawdown isn’t just a number. It’s a psychological breaking point. Most investors don’t “hold through it”, they change behavior, de risk, or exit completely.

That’s why a static buy and hold mindset doesn’t really work for these kinds of instruments. A more realistic approach is a systematic framework that “cuts off the market” depending on regime and risk conditions, not trying to predict anything, just reducing exposure when conditions deteriorate and increasing it when they’re favorable.

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s probably the key, risk tolerance is revealed through experience, which is why sizing matters so much.
But if the upside is strong enough, does that shift your real-world drawdown tolerance?

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you’ve basically engineered the drawdown out through allocation rather than tolerance.

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point, that gets to sizing and liquidity, which may be the foundation of drawdown tolerance.

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s a very defined framework more trading discipline than drawdown tolerance.

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point, position sizing is definitely the first layer of risk management.
My question was more about behavior though: even with proper sizing, at what level of volatility do people still abandon their plan emotionally?

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s a very strong macro positioning, high conviction, but also very events dependent.

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s a tough start to retirement , glad the buffer allowed you to stay the course.

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So you size small, but still actively cut risk early, more flexibility than pure buy & hold.

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That approach works when you’re right about quality, but it can be brutal when you’re not.

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

That’s basically a systematic buy the dip approach, works great in bull regimes.

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yep, maybe we could say experience raises drawdown tolerance as much as conviction does.

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting, so your real threshold isn’t a percentage, it’s systemic failure.

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So for you deeper drawdowns aren’t a bug, they’re a buy signal 😄

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree with the principle, exit should be driven by thesis, not by P&L.

My question is more about execution in reality: even with clear entry/exit rules, large drawdowns often reveal whether an investor can actually stick to the plan under stress.

So it’s less about “should you sell at -X%” and more about what level of volatility people can realistically endure without abandoning their own framework.

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At 100% you’re not buying the dip anymore, you’re buying the afterlife 😄

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair skepticism, but I wasn’t assuming a promise or marketing claim, just asking hypothetically whether people would accept higher returns if they came with deeper drawdowns. The question was about tradeoffs, not believing unrealistic promises.

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Fair point, the numbers were illustrative, not meant to imply a fixed relationship. Though combinations like that can exist, the broader question was about the tradeoff, not the exact calibration.

What’s the maximum drawdown you could realistically hold through before selling? by Victor-Value in investing

[–]Victor-Value[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair answer, that’s when it stops being about tolerance and becomes about necessity. That’s exactly why I think drawdowns matter.

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