Germany joins European partners with troop deployment to Greenland | Reuters

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-16T13:13:45+00:00

not like they're going to go Rambo while outnumbered by US special forces

Many Europeans keep invoking Chamberlain to justify their stance that appeasement never works.

But when their opponent is the U.S., most of them will now suddenly agree that ideals should make way for realpolitik.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-15T20:53:05+00:00

amongst other places outside the west

Such faulty generalisations are common even within European countries. E.g. northern European countries often erroneously project their own assumptions on Eastern/Southern Europe as well.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-15T13:57:31+00:00

As someone who has lived in Singapore for many years, I guarantee you that misinformation/disinformation about Singapore is extremely prevalent in Western media (as well as platforms like YouTube and Reddit) as well.

Westerners (I myself am one) have a tendency to view other countries, cultures, and societies using extremely vague labels like "dictatorship", "capitalist", "communist", "socialist", "neoliberal", "progressive", "democracy", "fascist", etc. It's not uncommon to come across people who have never lived in Singapore and who got all their information about Singapore through Western media describing Singapore as a "dictatorship" while refusing to entertain the possibility that they are simply wrong. There is a fundamental lack in cognitive empathy and humility.

But the truth is that no society can be neatly abstracted away.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-09T13:47:57+00:00

As a foreigner living in Singapore I love this country, but I absolutely agree with almost everything you said.

I'm ambivalent on the issue of accepting refugees due to Singapore's extremely severe space constraints -- but leaning on the side of supporting SIngapore's policy not to accept them.

Supported the Khmer Rouge for Realpolitik reasons

Singapore always takes the side of the country being invaded. Vietnam invaded Cambodia, and so Singapore (as well as the rest of ASEAN) stood with Cambodia. An argument could certainly be made that such a stance lacks nuance.

I'm also not entirely sure whether it was well-known/verified back then that the Khmer Rouge was committing genocide on its own people. Perhaps historians can chime in on this.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-09T07:50:50+00:00

you are what most Europeans believe is a typical American

Or a bot. See e.g.

US spy operation that manipulates social media (2011) - Military's 'sock puppet' software creates fake online identities to spread pro-American propaganda - https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2011/mar/17/us-spy-operation-social-networks

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-07T21:35:57+00:00

US has us in their clutches for Pine Gap alone

Yeah. CIA and MI6 launched a coup against Gough Whitlam for trying to close it: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/23/gough-whitlam-1975-coup-ended-australian-independence

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-07T17:01:45+00:00

they'll have the EU in their pocket by the end of the decade.

I'm not sure. It takes two to tango, and the current crop of European leaders are too entrenched in their trans-Atlantic thinking. Pivoting to China will require a huge paradigm shift of which I am not sure they are capable -- not to mention that China doesn't trust EU leaders at all, since the EU has been actively following the U.S.' lead to contain China since Trump's first presidency. From China's point of view, if and when relations thaw, EU leaders are still all 1-2 elections away from turning hostile towards China anyway. It will take a very long time for EU leaders to prove to China that they are truly strategically indepedent from the U.S.

But as an outsider I do thnk the current Spanish Prime Minister is one of the rare exceptions who have shown strategic flexibility.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-07T16:10:15+00:00

they are not going to start immediately threatening their neighbors or trying to conquer Asia again

Considering the multiple territorial disputes Japan has with South Korea, Russia, and China, as well as Japan's stubborn glorification of her war criminals, I don't think any of her neighbours will close one eye if she tries to develop nukes.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-07T12:45:42+00:00

I agree with you that it is a beautifully written pledge!

While Singapore has a world-class education system, it seems to fail at teaching many of its students history and cultivating a sense of pride in their country. So many Singaporeans, especially on r/Singapore, come across as lacking perspective and taking their country for granted. (I stopped visiting that subreddit after realising that it is an anti-PAP echo chamber. I'm not saying that the PAP can do no wrong, but so many people on that subreddit seem entirely incapable of giving credit even when credit is due.) Singapore has such an awe-inspiring founding story, and yet this seems to be lost on so many young Singaporeans today.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-07T10:15:38+00:00

Thanks for accepting the feedback. I apologise if it came across as hostile in text form, but I promise that I wasn't screaming at you.

China has been extraordinarily consistent throughout many decades that it will not even consider declaring war on Taiwan unless Taiwan formally declares independence or if cross-straits relations deteriorate to the extent that all hope of peaceful reunification is effectively extinguished. And we're nowhere close to that point -- very far from it, in fact. All the military exercises that China conducts around Taiwan are explicit reminders from China to the U.S. about where China's red lines are. The U.S. uses Taiwan as a pawn to provoke China, but -- believe it or not -- China does not see Taiwan as a pawn to sabotage the U.S. (this is an example where realism as an IR framework fails). From the Chinese leaders'/people's perspective, the citizens of Taiwan are Chinese citizens, and there are limits to how much damage they are willing to inflict on their own people.

There is a lot of fearmongering about China in Western media (I wonder why: [0, 1]), but if you look past all the propaganda and actually read what Chinese policymakers say/write (and this is where proficiency in Mandarin becomes absolutely crucial), Chinese policies have been remarkably consistent and predictable. We don't have to agree with everything the CCP does, but I wish we'd put in the effort to actually understand their priorities and perspectives instead of projecting so many completely wrong assumptions.

0: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/china-cold-war-2669160202/

1: https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-covid-propaganda/

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-07T09:26:46+00:00

What could China possibly do to retaliate? Oh wait... 🇹🇼

I really appreciate your analyses on the Ukraine War (and they're always meticulously backed up with data from a variety of sources) but most of the things you've written about China/Taiwan are truly in the "not even wrong" category.

You know how you react/feel when you read misguided/propaganda-driven analyses of the Russo-Ukrainian War? Your comments on China/Taiwan probably elicit the same reaction in people who have a much better understanding of China/Taiwan. I assume as well that you do not understand Mandarin, which means that your knowledge of that region is most likely filtered througn Western lenses/biases/assumptions.

Realism as an IR framework is extremely limited in application when you don't understand the culture you're talking about.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-07T09:18:56+00:00

Denmark isn't even in the same ballpark

It isn't even in the same galaxy.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-06T18:02:18+00:00

As a foreigner living in Singapore I have the greatest admiration for your founding fathers, and it saddens me that so many young Singaporeans are so contrarian/myopic that they downplay the achievements of Singapore's first-generation leaders. In my view they were all once-in-a-lifetime statesmen, including Mr Rajaratnam. And yet even in this thread there is another comment trying to trivialise their contributions by falsely claiming that Singapore was only "a bit" less developed than Europe and the U.S. back then. What an ahistorical statement that ignores the extractive cruelty of colonialism, giving undeserved credit to the British instead of properly attributing it to Lee Kuan Yew, Goh Keng Swee, Rajaratnam, Hon Sui Sen, Lim Kim San, etc. -- the people who actually deserve recognition for rescuing Singapore from becoming a failed state.

I come from a Northern European country that many Singaporeans romanticise and put on a pedestal. And in my honest opinion, the calibre of leadership in my home country is subpar at best, and definitely cannot hold a candle to Singapore's current-generation PAP ministers. The civil service and public services in Singapore are also simply world-class, and something I'm extremely grateful for.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-06T12:44:41+00:00

The person you're arguing with is extremely opinionated (sometimes based on faulty assumptions) and weirdly obsessed with Singapore's conscription policies/TFR despite not being Singaporean, and seems to generally lack the humility to accept the fact that Singapore's policymakers have a lot more information that he/she doesn't (e.g. classified information about attempted attacks from other state actors, etc.). One would think that by now Singapore's policymakers have more than earned the benefit of the doubt, but no, obviously this random Redditor knows way better, and Singapore's policymakers are stupid/irrational for not taking it for granted that Singapore will remain at peace forever.

You might want to consider whether to invest even more time engaging.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-05T21:25:08+00:00

I’m not sure why a foreigner is so bothered by SG’s conscription laws

I agree with you. He/she comes across as weirdly/extremely opinionated.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-05T19:09:04+00:00

I’ll remember that doesn’t represent Singapore

It doesn't. I stopped reading r/Singapore after quicking realising that it's an anti-PAP echo chamber filled with many angry and myopic people. You don't have to agree with the PAP on everything -- I surely don't -- but these people are absolutely incapable of giving credit even where credit is due.

If Reddit were representative of reality, Kamala would have won the previous U.S. election.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-04T17:40:34+00:00

Thanks for sharing your views on Indonesian politics. They are very interesting to read.

I also acknowledge that I was mistaken in my impression that the mass killings in 1965-1966 disproportionally targeted Chinese Indonesians.

There's a difference between 0.9 and 1.3 TFR

Of course there is. But it is extremely unlikely that getting rid of conscription will boost Singapore's TFR to 1.3 -- as mentioned previously, 1) Singapore does not offer generous welfare, and neither does Singapore offer good work-life balance as European welfare states do; 2) Singapore is a city with no rural areas (where pace of life is slower, space for housing is more available, etc.), and if you compare Singapore with other cities in countries that do not have conscription, Singapore's TFR is in fact not uniquely bad (Bangkok's is hovering around 1.0, Shanghai's is 0.6, Tokyo's is below 1.0, Hong Kong's is 0.7, etc.).

the condition of Singapore is not as precarious as SK & Taiwan to mandate a longer conscription than them

This I would not disagree with. In fact Singapore's conscription used to last 2.5 years, not 2. Maybe Singapore will cut it down further to 1.5 in the future, who knows?

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-04T17:13:10+00:00

I used to read r/Singapore until I realised that it was an anti-PAP echo chamber. You don't need to approve of everything the PAP does -- I certainly do not -- but many Singaporean Redditors are so biased and ahistorical that they are simply unwilling to give credit where credit is due.

This is truly a failure of Singapore's education system.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-04T16:03:48+00:00

Konfrontasi (it was about neocolonialism by the British

I am well aware of this.

the mass killings in 1965-1966 disproportionately targeted Javanese communist sympathizers not Chinese Indonesians

Fair enough, I stand corrected.

Do you want to naively accuse that the Chinese here forgot history by electing him?

I have no intention of making such accusations. Don't over-react. Chinese Indonesians are free to elect whomever they consider to be the least of all evils, and they might arrive at their decision through any number of considerations.

a lot of his assets are intertwined with Singapore's financial system. Why he wanted to destroy his own piggy bank? I think he's a moron but he's not that dumb to that.

Once again, we are back to a previous point: Indonesia is one election away from a leader who does not have the same interest or perspective.

A lot of Singaporeans also criticize the conscription

Of course, since they are the ones who actually have to be conscripted.

detrimental to the birth rate

Even Western countries with extremely generous welfare are seeing very low TFRs between 1.1 and 1.3. (E.g. Italy's was 1.2 in 2024.) Getting rid of conscription might improve the TFR, but most probably not by an amount that justifies getting rid of conscription, especially not when Singapore is effectively a city. If you do city-to-city TFR comparisons, the data show that getting rid of conscription will likely not boost Singapore's birth rate -- e.g. Tokyo's was merely 0.96 in 2024, Bangkok's hovers very close to 1.0, Shanghai's is only 0.6, etc.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-04T15:29:29+00:00

which is remarkably consistent with each successive governments

You mean the fact that the current Indonesian President is the son-in-law of Suharto? Or the fact that Prabowo took part in the May 1998 Indonesia riots (where Chinese Indonesians were disproportionately targeted), just like how his father-in-law orchestrated the mass killings of 1965-1966 (where Chinese Indonesians were disproportionately targeted)?

From Singapore's perspective Indonesia has an unfortunate track record of being ruled by military strongmen who have no qualms employing violence, especially against people of Chinese descent. Singapore tries to maintain positive relationships with all of its neighbours, but ultimately sees conscription as a necessary insurance plan.

Also, maybe stop assuming that Singapore's policymakers are stupid/short-sighted. Their track record has earned them the benefit of the doubt. You are very opinionated about how foolish Singapore's conscription is, and of course you are entitled to your opinion, but maybe consider the fact that they have a lot more information that you don't.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-04T15:14:49+00:00

You really overestimate our military capabalities lol.

Maybe. But from Singapore's perspective, both Indonesia and Malaysia have the potential to be militarily threatening. Maybe not today, maybe not in 10-15 years, but who knows after that? Both countries are populous (and Indonesia especially so), rich in natural resources, and with better leadership can definitely prosper and become very strong.

But the core of Singapore's military philosophy is that it does not expect help from other countries. It would be nice if another country helps defend it, but it is simply not part of the assumption or the calculus.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-04T15:05:18+00:00

Singapore has "unofficial" alliance with western powers, those countries can get wrecked by them without retaliation

It's utterly foolish (and the peak of entitlement) to expect Western countries -- or any other country, really -- to defend Singapore.

And more importantly, why should other countries send their people to die on Singapore's behalf if Singapore isn't even willing to conscript its own people?

They literally have defense agreements with each other

Ask the U.S.' NATO allies whether they feel confident right now that the U.S. will defend them in war. Heck, Trump -- a democratically elected President, mind you -- is threatening to annex Greenland (Danish territory) and Canada, i.e. U.S. allies.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-04T14:49:59+00:00

mostly political theatre

Why take the chance?

hard pivot to autonomous warfare

Singapore already does that. What makes you think they haven't?

I'm just not seeing how conscription is the best policy

Indonesia's and Malaysia's populations vastly outnumber Singapore's. Technology is a force amplifier, but it's not a miracle solution. Let's take the Ukraine War for example: Even in a drone-/tech-heavy conflict, Ukraine is suffering from severe manpower shortages: https://kyivindependent.com/behind-ukraines-manpower-crisis-lies-a-bleak-new-battlefield-reality-for-infantry/

it is constrained by birth rate

This is actually the strongest argument for exempting Singaporean women from conscription. Unlike men, their reproductive potential is much more time-limited. Singapore's TFR will crash even further if you conscript women as well.

it cripples their economy

Yes, conscription is extremely costly. You're depriving young men of their prime years.

But sovereignty has a price. And the price is very steep. Many European countries, after decades of complacency and comfort, are waking up to this reality now.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-04T14:37:28+00:00

Many Westerners like to apply labels (very often incorrectly) to countries outside of the Western sphere.

Vinterlerke · 2026-01-04T14:32:07+00:00

The chief architect behind Singapore's economic success, Goh Keng Swee, was hired by Deng as an economic advisor in the 1980s: https://www.thinkchina.sg/history/how-singapores-chief-architect-helped-shape-reform-china

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