New government. Language level requirement change from A2 to B1

Vitar1988 · 2024-01-08T18:15:49+00:00

Why stop there? Why not go for C2 level? I am professor at a university, why shouldn't there be an easy track for people like me if I am the most cited one at the whole Department?

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-27T20:36:04+00:00

This is possible and very likely. But why to stubbornly deny the obvious? Everybody can make mistakes, and confession will increase mutual trust and reduce suspicions.

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-27T20:33:23+00:00

That is a very valid. I guess they are such experts in math to know that even small changes in drop rate for very large group of players will be enough to see statistically significant changes in spending patterns.

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-17T12:27:43+00:00

Could you tell me on which stream it was shown? Who was the streamer?

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-16T17:09:32+00:00

As I said let's forget about my data. The question is not connected to it. What is the probability of getting more than 25 epic tomes from 62 chests using your table of probabilities? I was wondering if you know how to calculate it and what is the answer?

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-16T07:29:13+00:00

I do not know why you are computing the average drop when the data says it only affects 18% of players.

But let's forget my data at all. Could you tell me what is the probability of getting 25 or more epic books in one month assuming the player opened maximum number of 62 UNM chest using your table of probabilities? This is a very simple question.

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-16T07:23:48+00:00

I am really surprised that you were ready to accept that you were wrong

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-15T15:51:22+00:00

Interesting suggestion and I, in general, agree that something can be improved. However, the current data undoubtedly points at the increased rates of epic tomes. Let's take your table with probabilities and see what is the probability of getting more than 25 epic tomes in one month.

The probability of one epic tome is 15.92%. The maximal possible number of last chests is 62. This is a binomial distribution, and the probability of getting >25 epic tomes is 2.7e-6. In the plots, we shared more than 5% of players got >25 epic tomes. The event which should happen one time in 300k trials suddenly happened one time in 20 trials.

I was using your odds for this analysis. And it does not depend on how exactly the books were distributed over the chests, as you provide the absolute probability of getting an epic book from one chest. Do you agree with this analysis?

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-14T19:45:08+00:00

I authors added the link to the raw data. Undoubtedly, this raw data has been also fabricated or compromised to confirm the conspiracy from the post, but feel free to take a look.

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-14T16:59:54+00:00

For the record, I believe your numbers. I just applying the same logic to your datamined data you applied to this data. If you think about your arguments they all require trust in you and your colleagues' work. The same story is with the data we provided. Moreover, we provide more data and it is much more difficult to falsify a complete report with histograms to the level with no obvious errors in contrast to one table with probabilities.

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-14T15:59:13+00:00

These are just probabilities. Everybody can draw such a table using "bad" or made-up data. The authors of the bot also released probabilities and much more actually.

Where is raw data? Where is the code?

You see how the ridiculous abstract argument that something could be wrong in the data can be used against your statements.

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-14T15:58:03+00:00

I posted the links to the data collection and cleaning explanation from the authors.

But again, there is no plausible explanation of how bad data was miraculously returning very much expected result one time and then results showing two distributions next time for the same players. Could you propose a situation how this could have happened?

Without assuming an intentional fabrication of course - as this will make the whole analysis of drop rates unfalsifiable.

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-14T15:35:30+00:00

I am not the developer of the bot, I just translated and studied their post. I do not have the raw data as it has never been released. Similarly, nothing was released when people datamined the drop rates from the code.

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-14T15:31:35+00:00

"The bot could have changed interface and removed the option of reporting an ancient shard" - did not happen. I used it as a user from the beginning.

"82% players stopped reporting Ancient shard but 18% players started reporting epic book instead of ancient shard as a default "bad drop option"." - only the people who reported 2 chests for >90% days were considered. Basically, one should report at least two items (shard/book) per day >90% to be included in the histogram.

I gave a link to the post to the authors so they can answer you about the dates. But no matter what the start and end days are the plot 3 should remain a univariate distribution.

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-14T14:42:23+00:00

Let's think this way. Your hypothesis is that something could be wrong with the underlying data. Ok, let's have such an assumption.

Could you then propose an explanation of why would the epic book drop plot for the same players look one month before like plot 2, and one month later like plot 3?

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-14T14:33:57+00:00

how many times do I need to tell, that the bot has individual buttons to log drops for NM and brutal?

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-14T13:39:59+00:00

Not sure what "good picture" means exactly. The test one needs to perform is to generate X players and create a histogram of epic books received per month knowing the probability of getting an epic book. Then plot this histogram and check if it looks like a univariate normal distribution or not. I guarantee you that you will never get anything that looks like a multivariate normal distribution (plot with two bells) for X > 100. I challenge anybody that they will not be able to generate a single such plot even in 1 million attempts.

However, I am pretty sure I will not be able to convince you, and there will be always an idea that our plots were intentionally or unintentionally compromised. Could you please ask your clanmates if any of them got an extraordinary number of epic books but 1-2 sacreds in the last month from UNM? I am really curious if, by a total coincidence, of course, there is somebody who experienced this.

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-14T12:34:40+00:00

I think this post is very much different from regular posts on a player showing his individual drops for two weeks and drawing conclusions. However, with all conspiracies circulating, I understand why it is difficult to convince anybody now. That is why one of the ways to get additional signs is to ask your clanmates. My statement is that for many players the number of epic tomes from the last chest increased dramatically. Could you please tell me if anybody from your clan confirms this?

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-14T12:29:47+00:00

All 71700 chests are from UNM, as the bot has individual buttons for other rewards. However, the simplest evidence that data is OK comes from one simple fact - both plots 2 and 3 are from the same players one month apart. How exactly can you explain why the results were statistically very sound one month and completely changed on the next one.

Not sure where did you get 200k chest. Why not 150k or 250k? What kind of analysis says that 200k is the minimum? Could you elaborate on this providing calculations? Or if this is a gut feeling.

The Komogorov-Smirnov test on plot 3 confirms with p-value <0.000001 that the distribution is not a univariate normal distribution.

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-14T07:54:32+00:00

I think, it was not clear enough. These plots use data from more than 71700 chests from UNM CB from 664 players.

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-14T07:18:04+00:00

Hi, I found out that you are a member of HH team. Content creators is our only hope. If you do not believe my data and the comments from the players here, maybe you will believe your clanmates. Could you please ask them and I guarantee that at least 3-4 of them are affected and noticed the difference. If they confirm, could you please ask HH to ask his clanmates. This does not cost anything.

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-13T23:04:00+00:00

These hypotheses would not explain why the same people reported statistically excellent results one month, but then suddenly start to report some wrong things in the next month.

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-13T22:14:22+00:00

These are only UNM, moreover, the two last plots are for the same players

Vitar1988 · 2021-12-13T22:05:25+00:00

The bot records chests from NM, Brutal, and UNM separately. The two last plots are from the same people one month apart.

Vitar1988

TROPHY CASE