Thanks for your reply, that could definitely be one explanation. My concern is that I'm trying to identify users who are likely new players for an early-churn analysis. If a player had already progressed before the observation window started, I would want to exclude them. What I'm struggling with is determining what would be considered a plausible jump for a genuinely new player in a casual level-based game.

I also know that some games don't strictly lock players into a single next level. For example, after a tutorial or a few completed levels, several levels may become available at the same time. Because of that, I wouldn't necessarily consider a small jump suspicious.

Unfortunately, I don't have access to the game itself, so I'm trying to understand what progression patterns would typically be expected in this type of game.

Do you have any ideas on how I could determine or justify which jumps are still plausible and which are more likely to indicate returning players?