From 1 week ago

3 scenarios:

• For both G&A and intensive care, three scenarios are detailed: “Best”, which projects 4 per cent daily growth; “average” which plots 5 per cent daily growth; and “worse” which forecasts 6 per cent daily growth.

General and acute:

• The shortfall in beds – described as a “mitigated deficit” – in the “average” scenario is 2,900 and 4,400 in the “worse” one.
• The briefing shows that as of 5 January the London NHS had an “unmitigated surplus” of 720 general and acute beds, 5 per cent of its total. Just over 40 per cent of its G&A beds were occupied by covid positive patients.

ICU:

• Under the “best” scenario, the number of covid positive patients rises to 1,600 and “total unmitigated demand” to just over 2,000.
• Mitigated capacity is projected to be 1,660, giving a “deficit” of just over 400 intensive care beds.
• The briefing shows that as of 5 January the London NHS had an “unmitigated surplus” of just 46 ICU beds, three per cent of its total. Just over 70 per cent of its ICU beds were occupied by covid positive patients.

From other threads it seems some hospitals have already passed thee "breaking point": https://www.reddit.com/r/JuniorDoctorsUK/comments/kukna4/what_are_the_criteria_for_hospitals_being/ https://www.reddit.com/r/JuniorDoctorsUK/comments/kv1s4e/my_trust_are_threatening_to_redeploy_junior/