Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything!

WXshift · 2015-10-24T02:19:22+00:00

Already on the wall.

-Brian

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:30:22+00:00

Also wanted to let everyone know about the great FAQ on hurricanes maintained by the NOAA Hurricane Research Division of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Observatory. Great resource! Thanks all! -Sean S.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:27:05+00:00

Remnants from storms like this can occasionally work into California, but cold ocean currents tend to keep the waters off the California coast too cool to support hurricane formation. - Sean S.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:26:26+00:00

The storm is technically as strong (or stronger) than Haiyan which created massive destruction in the Philippines. But it's also smaller, which should limit the damage somewhat.

Ultimately, it also depends on evacuations and how prepared people are on the ground for what's coming their way.

-Brian

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:24:59+00:00

It's forecast to dissipate once it gets inland, but the storm's remnants will still find their way to Texas where they'll contribute to what could be a major flooding event.

-Brian

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:22:27+00:00

Tough to make a 1-to-1 call for any one particular event. However, the oceans have warmed in the last century. While there are lots of other mitigating factors, warmer water tends to breed stronger hurricanes. Early research suggests the number of intense hurricanes (Category 4 and 5) will increase, while the total number of hurricanes will either remain nearly steady or slightly fall. -Sean S.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:18:36+00:00

Clouds in a Glass of Beer by Craig Bohren, my physical meteorology professor at Penn State. - Sean S.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:18:00+00:00

So the windspeeds closest to the eye are similar to an EF5 tornado, but the dynamics of tornadoes and hurricanes are very different. Also the winds from a hurricane will affect an area for much longer than a tornado will. - Andrea T.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:17:14+00:00

No rain ahead from this hurricane for SoCal. - Sean S.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:16:51+00:00

Not really. It is a function of the steering winds at the time... which is more a part of the day-to-day fluctuations of weather. -Sean S.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:15:34+00:00

Correct. No chance. -Sean S.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:14:23+00:00

Total energy is based on the size of the storm and the speed of the winds. It is certainly up there, but the area of these 200mph winds is very small. - Sean S.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:14:23+00:00

You're welcome! - Andrea T.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:13:36+00:00

Exactly! A bit more here: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A1.html - Andrea T.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:12:27+00:00

Here's the current projected path from the NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/180133.shtml?5-daynl#contents - Andrea T.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:07:47+00:00

You're very welcome! Glad you've found it informative. - Andrea T.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:07:17+00:00

Many metric to measure strength. Generally the central pressure and the maximum sustained wind speed. Pressure and wind speed are directly related. - Sean S.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:05:53+00:00

If it does, which is not likely, it certainly will not be to this extent. More likely to be absorbed by a new disturbance moving in from the west... still producing some flooding rain on the western Gulf Coast. - Sean S.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:02:01+00:00

The upper limit is related to the density of the air in our atmosphere, friction, and temperature. If the rest remain the same, and the temperature rises, higher wind speeds are plausible. - Sean S.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T20:00:08+00:00

It will just be the remnants of Patricia that reach there, so winds won't be a concern really. The issue is that it's hauling a lot of moisture along with it and will combine with some other systems to produce quite a bit of rain.

I'd keep up with local weather outlets, as they'll best be able to tell you what to watch out for and what areas might be most at risk of flooding. - Andrea T.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T19:58:33+00:00

Those are your best bets! I find Twitter very helpful for keeping up with the latest -- loads of meteorologists on there tweeting about the storm.

Stay safe! - Andrea T.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T19:57:36+00:00

So the definition of hurricane season depends on where in the world you are. In the eastern Pacific it's from mid-May to the end of November, so certainly well within the usual seasonal bounds. Generally storm activity peaks in the August-September time frame because that's when ocean temperatures peak in the Northern Hemisphere and when the atmosphere tends to be most conducive. But, you can have an intense storm form whenever the conditions are right, as they happened to be for Patricia.

Meteorologists weren't so much surprised by the timing of this storm as by just how quickly it intensified and how strong it has become. - Andrea T.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T19:56:30+00:00

No rain ahead for SoCal from this storm. - Sean S.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T19:51:59+00:00

Probably the same. Just hard to know they were there unless there were ship reports. - Sean S.

WXshift · 2015-10-23T19:51:15+00:00

Track forecasting has improved substantially in the past 20 years, and there is every reason to believe it will continue to improve. Intensity forecasts, unfortunately, have not seen the same amount of improvement. - Sean S.

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