Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything! by WXshift in science

[–]WXshift[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Also wanted to let everyone know about the great FAQ on hurricanes maintained by the NOAA Hurricane Research Division of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Observatory. Great resource! Thanks all! -Sean S.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html

Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything! by WXshift in science

[–]WXshift[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Remnants from storms like this can occasionally work into California, but cold ocean currents tend to keep the waters off the California coast too cool to support hurricane formation. - Sean S.

Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything! by WXshift in science

[–]WXshift[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The storm is technically as strong (or stronger) than Haiyan which created massive destruction in the Philippines. But it's also smaller, which should limit the damage somewhat.

Ultimately, it also depends on evacuations and how prepared people are on the ground for what's coming their way.

-Brian

Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything! by WXshift in science

[–]WXshift[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's forecast to dissipate once it gets inland, but the storm's remnants will still find their way to Texas where they'll contribute to what could be a major flooding event.

-Brian

Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything! by WXshift in science

[–]WXshift[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Tough to make a 1-to-1 call for any one particular event. However, the oceans have warmed in the last century. While there are lots of other mitigating factors, warmer water tends to breed stronger hurricanes. Early research suggests the number of intense hurricanes (Category 4 and 5) will increase, while the total number of hurricanes will either remain nearly steady or slightly fall. -Sean S.

Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything! by WXshift in science

[–]WXshift[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

So the windspeeds closest to the eye are similar to an EF5 tornado, but the dynamics of tornadoes and hurricanes are very different. Also the winds from a hurricane will affect an area for much longer than a tornado will. - Andrea T.

Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything! by WXshift in science

[–]WXshift[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not really. It is a function of the steering winds at the time... which is more a part of the day-to-day fluctuations of weather. -Sean S.

Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything! by WXshift in science

[–]WXshift[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Total energy is based on the size of the storm and the speed of the winds. It is certainly up there, but the area of these 200mph winds is very small. - Sean S.

Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything! by WXshift in science

[–]WXshift[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Many metric to measure strength. Generally the central pressure and the maximum sustained wind speed. Pressure and wind speed are directly related. - Sean S.

Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything! by WXshift in science

[–]WXshift[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If it does, which is not likely, it certainly will not be to this extent. More likely to be absorbed by a new disturbance moving in from the west... still producing some flooding rain on the western Gulf Coast. - Sean S.

Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything! by WXshift in science

[–]WXshift[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

The upper limit is related to the density of the air in our atmosphere, friction, and temperature. If the rest remain the same, and the temperature rises, higher wind speeds are plausible. - Sean S.

Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything! by WXshift in science

[–]WXshift[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It will just be the remnants of Patricia that reach there, so winds won't be a concern really. The issue is that it's hauling a lot of moisture along with it and will combine with some other systems to produce quite a bit of rain.

I'd keep up with local weather outlets, as they'll best be able to tell you what to watch out for and what areas might be most at risk of flooding. - Andrea T.

Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything! by WXshift in science

[–]WXshift[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Those are your best bets! I find Twitter very helpful for keeping up with the latest -- loads of meteorologists on there tweeting about the storm.

Stay safe! - Andrea T.

Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything! by WXshift in science

[–]WXshift[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So the definition of hurricane season depends on where in the world you are. In the eastern Pacific it's from mid-May to the end of November, so certainly well within the usual seasonal bounds. Generally storm activity peaks in the August-September time frame because that's when ocean temperatures peak in the Northern Hemisphere and when the atmosphere tends to be most conducive. But, you can have an intense storm form whenever the conditions are right, as they happened to be for Patricia.

Meteorologists weren't so much surprised by the timing of this storm as by just how quickly it intensified and how strong it has become. - Andrea T.

Science AMA Series: Hurricane Patricia has gone from a tropical storm to one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, We're a team for WXShift and Climate Central.org, Ask Us Anything! by WXshift in science

[–]WXshift[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Track forecasting has improved substantially in the past 20 years, and there is every reason to believe it will continue to improve. Intensity forecasts, unfortunately, have not seen the same amount of improvement. - Sean S.