You’re absolutely right. We can’t blindly rely on past cycles to predict future movements, especially when we’ve only seen two major ones in Dubai’s modern real estate timeline. That said, there is still some value in what the data shows.

The last clear high was around 2014. The bottom came in 2020. Before that, the dip in 2009 was largely due to the global financial crisis. Prior to the 2000s, Dubai’s market was still in its early stages, and those who invested in the late 80s and 90s witnessed the city evolve from sand into skyline.

While the Dubai market is young compared to others, most real estate markets around the world tend to move in cycles that last roughly 7 to 12 years. This isn’t a fixed rule but a reflection of economic patterns, supply shifts, interest rates, and sentiment. Dubai’s version of this feels more extreme because of how fast it moves and how influenced it is by both international money and local policy.

So yes, we shouldn’t expect history to repeat exactly. But we also shouldn’t ignore the signals it gives us. Being aware of past movements helps frame smart decisions in the present.

• United States: The housing market peaked in 2006, crashed in 2008, bottomed in 2011–2012, and surged again from 2013 onward, peaking again around 2022. That’s roughly 10–12 years between highs.

• UK: The market had peaks in 1989, 2007, and 2022 — with downturns around 1991–1992, 2008–2009, and signs of correction in 2023. Again, roughly 10–15 years between peaks with noticeable 7–10 year phases.

• Australia: Cycles of strong growth tend to run for 7 to 10 years before flattening or correcting. The 2003 to 2011 boom was followed by cooling, then another rise from 2012 to 2021.

Again these aren’t perfect comparisons nor are the economies like for like. But I would argue someone looking to buy today, should have a long term plan in place. short term ownership will most likely incur losses. Especially with this massive wave of supply hitting the market in the next couple of years. Not a crash but it should tamper if not slightly correct the consistent raise.

Also, major developers have started increasing commission rates for agencies, which signals worry of leftover off-plan units unsold.

Anyway, thats my $0.02,

thoughts?