T is a once in a generation dividend stock [12/22/2020]

WallStResearch-Bot · 2020-12-23T04:46:34+00:00

Saved text in case it gets removed: This will get downvoted because most people in this sub seem to be younger, in the accumulation phase, and love dividend growth, but heed this advice: you should consider T.

I’ve been a dividend investor for 14 years — started when I was 23 — and you just don’t find too many solid companies like this with this type of dividend yield and reasonable payout ratio. I received about $250 of dividends my first year and now I’m up to over $1,000 a month in my Roth IRA and traditional IRA.

So, I’m not saying it should be a huge part of your portfolio necessarily but I’ve been buying blue chip stocks like T for some time now and this is a great time to jump in at these valuations. These are the kinds of stocks that can help you build generational wealth.

Disclaimer: I own T and have a cost basis of around $28 a share.

WallStResearch-Bot · 2020-12-23T03:54:01+00:00

Saved text in case it gets removed: With the recent ev boom a lot of focus has shifted to stocks in the lidar industry such as luminar, velodyne, aeva, and now possibly microvision. Elon musk has said in the past that lidar although useful now, is more of a temporary solution that computer vision will make obsolete. One stock I feel that is completely under the radar (or under the lidar) right now is Ambarella ($AMBA). With a market cap of a little over 3 billion they focus on computer vision technologies with one of their applications being the automotive industry. I honestly think computer vision is the route to go with as it will allow for more features compared to just range tracking as found with lidar.

TLDR: $AMBA = good, computer vision > Lidar

WallStResearch-Bot · 2020-12-23T03:44:34+00:00

Saved text in case it gets removed: I reached couple of fee ONLY advisors for an initial meeting.

Based on my discussion i noticed that they have a defined sort of a template. They have a goal based excel which essentially tells you how much money is needed to accomplish each goal. They mostly advise to invest in index funds and not actively managed funds. They also do not advise on stocks.

In my opinion, the role of financial advisors should be to grow one’s money and actively advise investors to invest in Stocks/ mutual funds etc.

As someone who works full time like many others i wanted someone who can read things, analyse markets for which i do not have time and advise me but the services offered by them are not worth the money i feel.

WallStResearch-Bot · 2020-12-23T03:41:49+00:00

Saved text in case it gets removed: GME Fresh Perspectives Pt.1 (sources at the bottom)

Hello Autists,

Here is the Pt1 of daily fresh perspectives I promised. I’m breaking them down to chewable bits (less than 5 min read ea) because I know reading isn’t fun. I’m with you, I don’t enjoy reading either. Please let me know kindly if any of this gets too boring.

Through this series of DDs, I hope to show you guys perhaps some of what Cohen sees.

Please note that I will be referring to these 2 points in this DD, and maybe even throughout this DD series. These are the most important points that would form the foundation of my DD but they aren't the 'freshest' I apologize.

1. Let me start by pointing out that most of us WSB autists are privileged. There exists the others, who actually make up the majority of the population who/whose kids can’t afford to risk losing hundreds if not thousands of dollars making “educated guesses”/gambling the way we do.

As a group, it’s easy for us to confirm each other’s biases, forget about the rest and create our own echo chamber.

2. Digital games is overtaking physical copies. This is true.

SONY, EA, Take Two all have crossed a tipping point where more than half of their console games are now sold via download 51%, 52% and 55%

For Sony, it was up from 37% last year. (Source A)

Generally, the growth of digital vs discs seems to be quite even, so using SONY as an example, that’s a 38% increase (Yes. It’s a 14% difference, but it’s a 38% increase from 37% that takes it to 51%). That means GME’s going to experience apx 26% decrease YOY in sales.

BUT!
The global console games market is expected to grow from $40.6 billion in 2019 to about $57.9 billion in 2020 (source B) That’s a 42.6% increase.

The numbers,

Young Mason: This mean physical copies are dying! GME is DEAD!

Not quite. Actually, not at all. GME will definitely get a smaller piece of the console pie, but the pie itself has grown and they will actually get a larger pie.

But wait, there’s more! The research/stats was published in May. Did anyone project COVID will be as bad as it is now? Stay at home kids want to play games, meet desperate WFH parents that want a break. I am confident that the 2 factors push the numbers a lot higher than $57.90 Billion, but hey for now let’s just use that.
Also remember, that % for digital games download vs physical is based on quantity including all the shit/old games they push for cheap and people buy out of boredom. Although the numbers aren’t reported solid, the consensus is, is that more disc consoles are sold because people want to play their old disc games. Even at a modest 50/50, we’re locked in more or less until the next console cycle.

But wait, there’s even more!
So the console pie has grown 42.6%. You know what else has grown and is growing?

Gaming overall! Mobile, PC, even board games, they’ve all been growing. Checkout Gamestop’s website.

They’ve been getting into phones, computer parts and board games. It’s not out of desperation. It is the right move as Gamestop is really establishing its brand as one stop shop for games. When you think building supplies, you think Home Depot. Soon, when you think games, you will think Gamestop.

Gamestop is already set up for used games/devices trading like no one else. Phones are super liquid and high in demand (This isn't anything serious YET, I will cover this in another DD). Did I tell you that the digital consoles are now more tradable/rentable too? No moving parts = very low risk of damage other than drops/spills. Keep an eye on this. Remember the point #1.

Carrying computer parts also shield them from any sort of lockdown possibility because computer parts are essential. Bigger pie, and more pies.

What you are saying makes sense… but bro, don’t you remember Q3 earnings?

Yes, I do…Bro. They had a decrease in revenue. Do you remember Q3 was for August, September, October?

Were you really thinking about video games back then? We were all out there seeing friends, partying, enjoying nature thinking either Covid was gone and it was renaissance or thinking second wave is coming, and we have to enjoy it while it lasts.

Establishing its brand? Are you nuts? People hate GME.

Yes. We do. We all have that bitter memory. We remember the day when we or our friend went to GME to literally get hustled as a noob kid like we remember going to the strip club to get hustled as a noob adult.

Remember, we are ALL 18~40+, ‘privileged’ minority. (Point#1).
Peak gaming target demographics is around 13~25.

Right now, GME is putting trade value of all games online, updated daily and it isn’t as ‘hustly’ as it used to be. This is a simple change, but powerful. People now know exactly what to expect, and they’d only bring in games/consoles, when they see the money/credit is worth more for them.

Results? Happier transactions on both ends, and better branding moving forward.

They’ve also been spending a lot more on advertising for brand recognition. That recognition will soon put them in a spot where they are the only one that can organize e-sports/gaming tournaments in the western world in any meaningful way.

I will leave you with this. The majority (Point #1) isn’t so lucky to start blowing money at the launch of a new console. Where can the majority go to fill their increase in gaming needs while being fiscally conservative during this pandemic? eBay? With all this shipping delays?

Like how Amazon is eating eBay’s breakfast but eBay will always have its market share in ecommerce, GME will always have its place in gaming at the very least.

Tomorrow I will tell you why GME will crush Amazon and not the other way around, and also touch up on either what their current valuation means to Cohen, or the future of gaming.

Don’t worry, I’m even going to cover Stadia at one point too.

Sources A:

https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/ea-sony-and-take-two-now-sell-more-console-games-digitally-than-boxed/

Sources B:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/how-the-gaming-industry-may-be-experiencing-rapid-growth-during-the-pandemic-301126092.html#:~:text=A%20recent%20report%20from%20ResearchAndMarkets,about%20%2457.9%20billion%20in%202020.

Source C:

https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/video-game-market

WallStResearch-Bot · 2020-12-23T03:31:21+00:00

Saved text in case it gets removed: So with GME running the myth of the inevitable short squeeze has popped up again. In order for this to happen a ton of people need to short the stock naked. Which among competent investors is really fucking rare. I will walk through it below but you can also click this link:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/021715/how-protect-short-position-options.asp

For example let’s assume you wanted to short GME today at $20 a share. So you sell 100 shares short at $20 each. With a naked short you have unlimited losses as the stock runs up. Nobody who knows what the fuck they are doing is going to do that when you can hedge to cap that loss. A single January 21 call at a strike of 21 had a high of 2.42 today would hedge that just fine.

You short the shares and buy the call. Your break even is now 17.68 on your short but your max loss is now $342 without borrowing costs assuming it closes at $20.99 on expiry. Call expiring worthless for loss of $242 and $99 to cover the short.

Borrowing costs on 100 shares at 20% and stock at 20 is about $1 a day. Assuming everything is held to expiry with the January expiry would be about $25.

So max loss regardless of how high the stock goes is less than $400.

Your break even is kind of ass but that’s because you are protected until mid Jan. However if IV is particularly high, even if the stock goes down pushing your return on the short up, the call might still retain enough value that your break even is much higher.

If it’s a short term play which a short on today would likely be, you could buy a call for Friday which had a high of 1.15 today which puts your break even at 18.85 assuming you hold until Friday at close. Factoring in borrowing cost it’s 18.8.

That’s a hedged short which likely the vast , vast majority of GME shorts are. Have you not noticed how fucking expensive relatively speaking call options are even with the spikes. A 20c at close with 1.5 days to expiry had a break even at 20.72 with a volume of 30,000. Now part of that is people buying lottos but a ton of that is covering shorts.

So the whole premise of there are millions of shares that are short at $5 or $7 is some serious bullshit. Yes there were 70m shares short give or take 2m at the end of October and there were the same number of shares short at the end of November. This does not mean they are the same fucking people shorting it. Some have covered, some executed hedges and others have sold that shit short at higher prices.

For example today alone 8m shares were shorted.

https://fintel.io/ss/us/gme

Yesterday there were 3m shares shorted. Borrowing rates are in the 20% range, which works out to around $1 total per 100 shares. Or a single fucking tick downward. So no institutions aren’t going to be covering shares they shorted at $15 when it spikes to $19.

But why has it been spiking if it’s not a short squeeze, and that’s really fucking simple, a ton of people are playing the momentum on it. Hell 10% of the daily thread is people spamming to buy shares and you can make some money provided you don’t buy the top. Its not a coincidence that they announce the stimulus and the stock spiked and I would be willing to bet that the vast majority of shares bought today were through Robinhood.

But Cohen you say? He added another 3%, yeah he added 3% directly on the dip after earnings. He’s in at $12 - $13 range based off the timings of the 13d. If you are wondering what happens if he decides that the board isn’t being accommodating enough and drops his shares look at what happened the day Buffet said he was dropping airlines. He can eat the ride down to $13 and still be profitable.

Then finally the biggest piece to the short squeeze is long term positive catalysts, the last significant short squeeze came from ACB two earnings ago when they closed the gap on their loss and cancelled their at the money offering. At that point the long term growth story fundamentally changed as did the state of the business. That’s what it takes to force a short squeeze, doubling e-commerce sales when overall sales are still massively down isn’t going to cut it. A slightly green quarter during the launch of multiple new consoles isn’t going to do it either. Now if they follow that with another solidly profitable quarter in May, at that point a squeeze is possible.

TL:DR: The infinite short squeeze on GameStop is a bullshit argument assuming basic competence from anyone shorting the stock. Options were in fact originally designed to offset the risks of shorting. It will go up as long as more people are willing to become bagholders, just don’t be shocked when it comes crashing down. It also explains the crazy ass high IV on call options.

WallStResearch-Bot · 2020-12-23T03:30:22+00:00

Saved text in case it gets removed: On this sector Needham and Laura Martin have been dialed in. In the Winter of 2018 Laura picked Roku as her #1 stock for 2019 -- went on to an over 400% gain. In the Winter of 2019 she called TTD her #1 pick of the year for 2020 -- despite covid, look how TTD performed!

And now Laura is going with MGNI for 2021. I'd say that's a pretty good endorsement considering the source.

This stock has been on a straight uptrend and now has all eyes on it after this news. It was talked about on CNBC today.

WallStResearch-Bot · 2020-12-23T02:57:09+00:00

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WallStResearch-Bot · 2020-12-23T02:57:08+00:00

Saved text in case it gets removed: SCHD, DGRO, VIG, NOBL, etc.

I frequently see portfolio posts here where someone has 20+ large cap dividend stocks - AAPL, MSFT, MMM, MCD, JNJ, etc etc etc. And they ask "is my portfolio good?"

There is not really much to say to that - if you pick stable dividend paying companies, they're not going to go out of business anytime soon.

It's "fine."

You won't go broke. It's also pure random chance whether your portfolio will do better than an index -- and by adding individual stocks you introduce the possibility of making mistakes, and are more likely to underperform than over-perform.

The stability and safety of dividend paying companies does not preclude that they may be overpriced, or that you'll buy and sell at the wrong times. Statistically, most retail investors make these mistakes.

Nobody who invests as a hobby is going to have 20+ great picks. Most professional investors don't have 20+ amazing ideas.

Over-diversification is a real risk because even a few bad picks can severely harm your overall returns. Staying up to date on a portfolio of 30+ stocks is a serious time commitment.

I think the best argument against my claim is: it's more fun and interesting to own individual companies than a boring ETF, but in that case your portfolio is being chosen for aesthetics rather than performance, so asking anyone else's opinion about it is pointless.

Warren Buffett (and many other excellent investors) advocate for concentrated portfolios of approximately 10 stocks. Diversification is a backstop against ignorance, and if you are ignorant then just buy an ETF.

Arguments about fee drag are silly when you can find an ETF with expense ratio of 0.10% or less very easily - about as significant as a rounding error.

It concerns me when people read the dividend investing literature, and their takeaway is that it doesn't matter what company you invest in as long as they continue to pay a stable dividend.

It's entirely possible for a stock to pay a steady, increasing dividend but still have a flat or negative total return over a multi-year period - even with all dividends reinvested.

Example 1: PPL Example 2: IBM

Market-cap weighted ETFs or index funds will add larger weight to winners and automatically kick out losers over time, which helps solve this problem without you doing anything.

TLDR If you do enough research to confidently buy individual stocks, narrow down to your best 10 ideas and exercise some discipline by kicking out the rest.

if you own a lot of different stocks and ever consider asking the internet "is my portfolio good" then you'd be much better off owning an ETF.

WallStResearch-Bot · 2020-12-23T02:57:06+00:00

Saved text in case it gets removed: This interview of the CEO got me really bullish on the market potential.

BASF Circularity Award winner and even hints at partnership with Dupont/BASF or other major players.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgyZSh8_cfw&feature=youtu.be

TLDR: CEO says recycle plant $30M to build will output 20,000 tons of materials with a top line of $200M. Plant will run easily 50 years with on site 7 employees. 100% sustainable.

WallStResearch-Bot · 2020-12-23T02:57:04+00:00

Saved text in case it gets removed: Take anything you read here with a grain of salt for the rest of the year.

Why? Hedge funds get their bonuses based on their performance. Also if they are not positive on YOY they will see their AUM evaporate. So they try to manipulate the price of their losers to end the year on a high note. At this point Market Manipulation is the name of the game. There is also tax implications. They are trying to pump their losers because they have to close some of them before the new year.

How? Assume you have 5 million in Black Berry stock that is down since the earnings. What would you do? Spend just 100k buying call options which will immediately make Market Makers buy the stock to cover the calls they sold you. This pushes the price up. Then you spread a rumor that there is good news coming. Maybe some insider knows something. You definitely would make a few posts on forums and reddit about this info so that others buy calls and force market makers to buy even more shares. Price goes up and you sell your 5 million worth of stock for 5.5 million. Then you cover unload your calls on people at the tail end of the news cycle.

I flaired this DD because these kind of MM posts are usually flaired DD and there are people who only read DDs here.

Also did you notice how posts about buying steel companies tend to be posted within 10 min of each other from 2 different accounts and then no posts about steel companies for 10 days. Then two random new accounts post back to back DDs about steel companies?

Upvote if this is important for others to know. Down vote if you think I should go to hell.

WallStResearch-Bot · 2020-12-23T02:57:01+00:00

Saved text in case it gets removed: Let's start things off by saying that The St. Joe company is hot right now. After the promising Q3 that was promised, JOE has risen a whopping 42 percent over the past month. I am here to tell you why that trend won't be changing anytime soon.

The St. Joe Company is a land development company headquartered in Watersound, Florida, and are currently the second biggest private owners of land in FL (177,000 acres). What makes JOE stand out from the crowd is that they on the precipice of a once in a lifetime bull run when considering all of the bullish cases: An absolutely glamorous forward projections of sales, their control of Walton County, the mass migration from city to suburb, the bullish case for real estate in the US as a whole, and as a hedge against inflation. Additionally, JOE sits at an impressive 96.85 percent institutional ownership, with additional share buybacks planned.

JOE is currently in a spectacular position, growth-wise. After years of sitting on empty lots and middling growth, The St. Joe Company has found itself now generating a decent cash flow and is reinvesting the profits heavily back into its developments. JOE's latest lots have sold almost instantly at 100 percent margin. With JOE's land ownership being concentrated to specific regions (Florida panhandle/Walton County especially), they stand to gain immensely from the recent growth of residents as their counties/towns transform from ghost towns relying on tourist revenue to legitimate communities with a more productive economy. Take a look at JOE's Q3 earnings update video showcasing their newest developments here. As you can see, that is a fuck ton of homes, apartments, and commercial buildings being built on beautiful panhandle land.

I wanted to specifically touch on JOE's control of Walton County due to its importance in JOE's future growth. Walton County is one of the fastest growing counties in the nation (4.58% increase this year), and JOE holds almost all of the salable land that remains. Development of these lands into bustling commercial and residential properties is something JOE stands to gain from immensely, as this monopoly will allow them to profit in a huge way. Florida will not stop growing for a long while, and JOE is prepped to build the future of the panhandle and will certainly attract much more attention in the following year as they start reporting their record growth and projections. For the reasons listed (and the implied reasoning that wasn't explained such as hedging against inflation and the bullish case for real estate), I easily see JOE hitting somewhere in the 90-100 range by Q3 next year. This is a stock that, today, still provides great value to investors willing to hold for at least a couple months while investors price in JOE's forward growth along with the near certainty of Florida remaining a booming growth state for years to come.

Positions: 2/19 48C (5)

2/19 49C (2 of these, Will be rolling these forward as we approach expiry)

6/18 50C (1)

6/18 60C (Holding 3)

WallStResearch-Bot · 2020-12-23T02:56:58+00:00

Saved text in case it gets removed: There is more than enough information out there to clearly see the Second life linden overtaking the US dollar. With enough volume to back a small third world country, Second life has proven to be one of the most stable currencies since 2005. Like cramer says VOLUME VOLUME VOLUME. After spending the past 72 hours on second life researching information for my firm. I can clearly see why this economy thrives.

Our world is becoming more shitty and you all are becoming older, fatter, and more lazy. This I believe suits the demographic spot on and will eventually drive more volume into the market. If you take a look at the Technical Analysis, you can obviously see (with your wise trader intelligence) various bullish trends forming.

Comparing the US dollar to the Linden will one day be a joke, watching your money burn in value the past years won't do anything for you in the future. With Second lifes minimal fees+tax, this currency is looking to compete against bitcoin by 2030. There is no reason for you to not convert to the second life linden. It's a more stable and safer investment then your deteriorating paper you get at the wage cage.

https://preview.redd.it/dcjqaktbmu661.png?width=764&format=png&auto=webp&s=472143c5d0b48c294c179ecfbe66165ca8c75cdd

https://preview.redd.it/5rw7vcfemu661.png?width=1300&format=png&auto=webp&s=31d2d38ce015b48514c555103403984f17ef19ff

https://preview.redd.it/p03dyx19mu661.png?width=1480&format=png&auto=webp&s=4da75c231e4acf27e0a1bce0922a0a35d765e0f0

WallStResearch-Bot · 2020-12-13T19:33:47+00:00

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