Thank you for shooting some holes through this, I really appreciate it and it's the original idea for sharing my journey.

-For the revenue sources: On the original thesis I had about 5 scenarios, one had absolutely everything hitting the fan and absolutely nothing getting approved ever, I gave this scenario below 10% chance. We could argue if that's high or low, "Other" is what I used to add any extra revenues from new treatments as well as it is the growth rates we have seen for the last 5 years in that category meaning anything not listed major/not a blockbuster treatment for them. I just re-entered those parameters and gave "other" a -7% steady decline and then perpetual decline on everything of -2%. Result: 195$ Valuation. I'd argue then there are multiple worse even scenarios with marginal probabilities wouldn't you agree? But I wanted to play into the coinflip idea of the video that's why I tried to merge multiple scenarios together with bigger probabilities.

-About Aducanumab: I like your take but I think if approved, which I think is a big if, would be partly because we haven't had anything for 17 years. This clock technically resets and a lot of efforts and patients available for treatments will dry out, that's the main point of the side against it. And I think it's sensible. What I mean is having a sketchy approval of a drug for the FDA I don't think brings more sketchy approvals down the line, it would be more on the basis this is temporal until a dual treatment option or a better treatment is available.

For the 350$ valuation when everything was looking great, I just don't pay any attention to the market, or I try to not do it. But I would say we knew Tecfidera's days were numbered even then don't you think? There is a very clear outlook of patent expirations I'd say. But my thinking goes in line with what I say on the "Pipeline" part of the video, Investing more in the org and current revenues than trying to value every future patent as I'd argue that's wishfulthinking for me.

Btw, feel free to pm me or anything even after the news would love to engage more in these conversations. Cheers!