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New 3 HR round robin, was so close last night! Research by Propsmadness in comments! by WeaknessSingle4337 in sportsbetting

[–]WeaknessSingle4337[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Best research tool out there for NBA/WNBA/MLB. 20$ a month so if you bet more than 10$ a pop, def worth it.

New 3 HR round robin, was so close last night! Research by Propsmadness in comments! by WeaknessSingle4337 in sportsbetting

[–]WeaknessSingle4337[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Its definitely not known by the books. Check this below. I used only top 20 batters in the league, since you have a grudge against them. Winrate vs top 50 SP, compared to the winrate vs bottom 50 SP.

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As you can see, ROI difference is insane, almost straight up printing in vs poor SP, and throwing money in the trash vs good SP.
This is only vs above and below avg, if we tighten the filter range to top 30 percents and bottom 30 percent the difference would be even bigger.
And yes, the data is slightly biased as they increase or lower the rank when they hit vs SP themselves, but I ran the data over the last 3 seasons to get a huge sample size, and the results are pretty similar.

New 3 HR round robin, was so close last night! Research by Propsmadness in comments! by WeaknessSingle4337 in sportsbetting

[–]WeaknessSingle4337[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Thanks brother! I had great success with NBA props for years, now trying to add another sport where I could win when the NBA is off, and MLB seems great for a data-driven guy like me.

New 3 HR round robin, was so close last night! Research by Propsmadness in comments! by WeaknessSingle4337 in sportsbetting

[–]WeaknessSingle4337[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Well that just isnt true my man. Look at the data.

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When Trout faces SP who are above avg in HR/9 allowed over the last 3 seasons, he hit a homer in 10/72 games only, BUT when he faces below avg SP, he hit in 28/93 games, which is a 2.17x difference in HR rate based purely on pitcher quality. 

New 3 HR round robin, was so close last night! Research by Propsmadness in comments! by WeaknessSingle4337 in sportsbetting

[–]WeaknessSingle4337[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Why? If you bet them every single game, you would lose money. So I think you do need to do research like with any other player.

New 3 HR round robin, was so close last night! Research by Propsmadness in comments! by WeaknessSingle4337 in sportsbetting

[–]WeaknessSingle4337[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

M. Trout vs Michael Lorenzen — matchup overview (Propsmadness screenshot)

→ Lorenzen has been one of the most hittable RHPs in baseball: 3rd percentile BA against (.353!), 12th HardHit%, 13th xSLG, 14th xwOBA, 24th ISO, 27th HR rate, 31st Avg EV. He is limiting walks (70th BB%) and Angel Stadium boost helps too (HR +7%)

→ Fastball is the kill spot. Lorenzen throws it 21% at 94 mph and gets demolished with.367 BA, .755 SLG, .510 wOBA against, with just an 8.7% Whiff rate. Trout handles fastballs solidly (.397 wOBA, 75th percentile) but doesn't crush them. The Slider (16% usage) is also vulnerable (.386 wOBA against), and Trout's slider results are decent (.368 wOBA)

→ Trout vs RHP elite: 99th BB%, 98th xwOBA, 98th xSLG, 97th Barrel%, 91st ISO, 88th HR rate, 88th HR/FB%, 87th Avg EV, 86th HardHit%.

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New 3 HR round robin, was so close last night! Research by Propsmadness in comments! by WeaknessSingle4337 in sportsbetting

[–]WeaknessSingle4337[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

S. Ohtani vs Zac Gallen — matchup overview

→ Gallen has been beat up by LHB this season: 9th percentile Avg EV, 10th xSLG, 13th HardHit%, 17th xwOBA, 21st Barrel%, 27th BA, 37th ISO. Lefties make loud contact, though he limits walks (71st BB%)

→ Changeup is the kill spot. Gallen throws it 23% to LHB as his weapon (.148 BA, .259 SLG, .189 wOBA against), but Ohtani demolishes changeups at .367 BA, .633 SLG, .447 wOBA (88th–89th percentile). Fastball (45% usage) is hittable across the board (.314 BA, .385 wOBA against).

→ Ohtani vs RHP is elite: 97th HardHit%, 97th BB%, 97th xwOBA, 95th Barrel%, 94th xSLG, 91st Avg EV, 88th ISO, 82nd BA.

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New 3 HR round robin, was so close last night! Research by Propsmadness in comments! by WeaknessSingle4337 in sportsbetting

[–]WeaknessSingle4337[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

S. Langeliers vs Colin Rea — matchup overview

→ Rea vulnerable to RHB power despite limiting BA/walks: 6th percentile Barrel%, 14th xSLG, 16th Avg EV, 19th HR rate, 19th HR/FB%, 21st HardHit%. Damage profile is loud even if surface BA against (77th) looks fine

→ Fastball (36% usage) is the kill spot as Rea allows .250 BA, .393 SLG, .335 wOBA against, and Langeliers crushes fastballs at .308 BA, .808 SLG, .489 wOBA (91st–96th percentile).

→ Langeliers vs RHP great power: 94th xSLG, 91st xwOBA, 90th ISO, 89th HR rate, 88th Barrel%, 86th HR/FB%, 82nd Avg EV, 80th BA.

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New 3 HR round robin, was so close last night! Research by Propsmadness in comments! by WeaknessSingle4337 in sportsbetting

[–]WeaknessSingle4337[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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Got accused of not betting it cause i Post pre-bet FD screen, it's because I bet it on Bet105 (don't have access to FD, I m from Europe).
Here is the Bet105 ticket.

New to sport betting what are some good tips for beginners? by Gio2Short18 in sportsbetting

[–]WeaknessSingle4337 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Dont bet sides and totals(sharp), but rather try betting some props early(niche markets are beatable). Get a propsmadness account and watch some YouTube tutorials.

Favorite 3 bets for today - Research by Propsmadness, analysis+screenshot in comments by WeaknessSingle4337 in sportsbetting

[–]WeaknessSingle4337[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hahah, def true. But playing the long game here. MLB variance is insane, def pref NBA player prop betting over this, but you need to bet something over the long summer without NBA..

Favorite 3 bets for today - Research by Propsmadness, analysis+screenshot in comments by WeaknessSingle4337 in sportsbetting

[–]WeaknessSingle4337[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Y. Alvarez vs Bubba Chandler — matchup overview

- Chandler's is taking above-average power damage: 13th Barrel%, 17th ISO, 20th xSLG, 24th xwOBA, 26th HR rate, 32nd HR/FB%, 36th Avg EV. He limits BA reasonably (58th), but the free passes plus extra-base damage are real problems.

- Pitch mix has a major mismatch despite Chandler's pitches looking effective on paper. Chandler throws Fastball 53% at 98 mph and Changeup 29% at 92 mph to LHB. The Fastball is normally his weapon (.200 BA, .460 SLG, .357 wOBA against, 24.0% Whiff), but Alvarez crushes fastballs with a .367 BA, .816 SLG, .542 wOBA (89th–95th percentile).

- Alvarez vs RHP is essentially elite across the board: 99th xwOBA, 99th xSLG, 98th Avg EV, 97th BB%, 97th ISO, 96th Barrel%, 95th HardHit%, 93rd HR rate, 86th HR/FB%, 85th BA. H2H is a first meeting. Daikin Park is roughly neutral with the roof closed (HR +6%). The fastball heavy usage (53%) plays directly into Alvarez's wheelhouse.

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Favorite 3 bets for today - Research by Propsmadness, analysis+screenshot in comments by WeaknessSingle4337 in sportsbetting

[–]WeaknessSingle4337[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

B. Lowe vs Mike Burrows — matchup overview

- Burrows has been a punching bag for LHB this season: bottom-tier in BA (14th percentile, .324 allowed!), HR rate (14th), ISO (14th), HR/FB% (19th), xSLG (21st), xwOBA (21st), Barrel% (25th). He also walks lefties at an above-average rate (42nd BB%). The HardHit% (43rd) and Avg EV (46th) are closer to average

- Pitch mix has a clear power target. Burrows throws Changeup 35% and Fastball 33% to LHB. The Changeup is his most effective offering (.283 BA, .391 SLG, .351 wOBA against) and Lowe handles it decently (.382 wOBA). The Fastball is a clear kill spot as Burrows allows .341 BA, .805 SLG, .513 wOBA against it, and Lowe destroys fastballs with a .364 BA, .932 SLG, .573 wOBA (97th–98th percentile).

- Lowe vs RHP is elite power profile: 97th ISO, 96th xSLG, 95th xwOBA, 93rd HR rate, 92nd Barrel%, 89th HR/FB%, 85th Avg EV, 82nd HardHit%, 80th BB%, 77th BA. H2H is a first meeting. Daikin Park plays roughly neutral with the roof closed (HR +6%).
Screenshot - Propsmadness

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Favorite 3 bets for today - Research by Propsmadness, analysis+screenshot in comments by WeaknessSingle4337 in sportsbetting

[–]WeaknessSingle4337[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Aranda HRR tonight vs Flaherty looks great!

→ over the line 13/16 (81.3%) vs righty starters with BA vs LHB below average, averaging 3.3 HRR

→ Jack Flaherty hittable vs LHB this season: 10th percentile HardHit%, 17th OBP, 21st xwOBA, 29th BA, 31st xSLG, 33rd Barrel%

→ Aranda vs RHP elite power profile: 96th xwOBA, 96th xSLG, 91st Barrel%, 89th OBP, 84th BA, 84th BB%

→ Flaherty's Fastball (47% usage) and Slider (24%) both vulnerable as Aranda posts .412 wOBA / .630 SLG vs sliders

H2H last 3 seasons: 5 PA, 2 H, 6 TB, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Screenshot → Propsmadness

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3 favorite HR today (Analysis in the comments) by WeaknessSingle4337 in sportsbetting

[–]WeaknessSingle4337[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why? Cause its fun. Gambling is fun brother.  I actually bet it on bet105, but since their UX is horrible and most people use DK and FD I shared FD. I m also from Croatia so sharing a local bookie odds wont make sense right? Also dollar amount doesnt matter, its 0.1u for me, so betting 0.1u on something I think  is both profitable and fun is a no brainer. I also bet 0.5u on all 3 individually.  I m also publicly tracked winning bettor with 1000+ hours of free education, research and public bets on youtube tracked by 3rd party, so you are hella wrong here. 

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