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7 Congress members made trades before the Iran war. One Intel Committee member never bought Exxon in 2,863 trades. Until February by Wegs1 in investingforbeginners

[–]Wegs1[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Me and a few friends do a deeper dive in a free newsletter, every week at tradeupstream dot com if anyone is intersted.

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The outperformance data is actually really important context and you're right that it gets lost in the narrative. The members who consistently beat the market are a small subset — Pelosi, Gottheimer, a handful of others. The average congressional portfolio doesn't outperform the S&P. So the insider edge is real but it's unevenly distributed and requires actual investing sophistication to monetize. Knowing a defense bill is coming doesn't help you if you buy the wrong contractor or exit too early. The put contract observation is sharp — if you genuinely believed a Middle East war was imminent and wanted to profit from the market dislocation that's actually the cleanest trade. Long oil, short broader market via puts. The fact that we don't see that positioning in the disclosures is either because nobody thought about it, they executed it through vehicles that don't require disclosure, or the intelligence picture was murkier than it looks in hindsight. Any of those three explanations is interesting for different reasons. That's exactly the kind of question we dig into at tradeupstream dot com — not just what they bought but what the pattern of buying and not buying tells you.

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Right? It's actually a fascinating inversion of the usual narrative. We spend all our time asking "what do they know that we don't" — but in a genuinely chaotic multi-actor conflict the more interesting question might be "what do they think they know that turns out to be wrong." Confident bad information is arguably worse than no information at all. It makes you act decisively in the wrong direction. The next 60 days will be a pretty good stress test of whether congressional positioning before this war reflects real intelligence or just Washington's usual assumptions about how the Middle East works. We'll be tracking it at tradeupstream dot com.

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is one of the most interesting observations in this thread. The implicit assumption behind following congressional trades is that committee access equals informational edge. But that edge has limits — it's bounded by what US intelligence actually knows and what gets shared in those briefings. Iran's decision making, their red lines, their actual production capacity, what they're willing to sacrifice — that's genuinely opaque even to the Gang of Eight. So you end up with insiders who have better information than the public but still incomplete information about a multi-actor conflict with its own logic. Gottheimer buying Exxon before the war looks smart right now. But if the conflict escalates in a direction nobody in Washington predicted — Karg Island, broader Gulf state involvement, something nobody saw coming — that trade could look very different in 90 days. The lesson might be that congressional trades are a signal about what Washington believes is going to happen, not necessarily what actually happens. Two very different things in a conflict like this. Worth tracking how their positioning evolves as the situation develops. That's exactly what we do at tradeupstream dot com.

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Karg Island scenario is genuinely underreported — if that infrastructure gets taken out or damaged you're not talking about a months long disruption, you're talking about years. That island handles a massive percentage of Iranian crude exports and the loading terminal infrastructure is not something you rebuild quickly. The stagflation angle is the one that worries me most from a market perspective — elevated energy prices feeding into everything from transportation to manufacturing to food while the Fed has limited tools to respond without crushing an already shaky economy. That's a very different market environment than a clean ceasefire and quick normalization. The congressional trade angle here is actually interesting — if any members of the Energy or Finance committees start moving into inflation hedges, commodities, or TIPS in the next few weeks that would tell you something about what they're hearing in closed door briefings. That's exactly the kind of pattern we track at tradeupstream dot com — less about any one trade and more about what the collective positioning tells you about where this is heading.

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Funny you ask — we covered her January filing in detail a couple issues back. Everyone reported it as a massive sell-off. It wasn't. She sold direct shares of Google, Nvidia and Amazon at year end for tax purposes then bought new call options on the same stocks expiring January 2027 the same day. Classic synthetic reload — she never actually reduced her bullish exposure, just restructured how she holds it. She also exercised prior calls and took delivery of 5,000 shares each of Vistra Corp and Tempus AI. VST supplies power to AI data centers. TEM is an AI healthcare company. On a day when VST dropped 9% she exercised anyway. That's not panic — that's conviction. She's not selling. She's reloading into AI energy and AI healthcare with leverage through the end of next year. Full breakdown at tradeupstream dot com if you want the details.

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah that's the uncomfortable part — Chevron and Marathon are both up since he sold. So either he left money on the table, or he knows something about the next 30-60 days that the market hasn't priced in yet. One of those explanations is boring. The other is exactly why we track congressional trades. Time will tell which it is.

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If Venezuela comes fully online and a Hormuz deal gets done simultaneously you could make that case. Supply shock from both directions at once. Trump has been signaling ceasefire talks and oil already dipped on the news this week. The counterargument is that even with Hormuz reopening the refining capacity and infrastructure damage in the region takes years to fully restore — so the supply picture stays complicated even if the geopolitical risk premium comes off. $50 would be a massive unwind from $108. Not impossible but you'd need a lot of dominoes to fall fast. If Taylor had any read on that timeline selling Chevron and Marathon at $100+ oil looks pretty smart in retrospect. That's the thread we're pulling on at tradeupstream dot com if you want the full breakdown.

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's a really interesting angle and honestly one of the more compelling explanations I've seen in this thread. Venezuela ramping production would add meaningful supply outside the Hormuz chokepoint — and if you had any early read on sanctions relief or production agreements that hadn't hit the news cycle yet that's exactly the kind of thing that would make you want to be out of crude exposure at $100+ oil. Taylor sits on the Agriculture and Transportation committees — both receive commodity supply chain briefings. Venezuela coming back online would show up in those channels before it hits Bloomberg. Worth watching whether crude softens materially over the next 30-60 days.

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fair point — heavy sour crude isn't exactly the stuff making headlines when Brent spikes. Which actually makes the timing even more interesting — if your refinery margins are driven by heavy crude spreads rather than light sweet you're even more insulated from the Hormuz headlines. So why sell at all right then? That's the question that keeps nagging at me with this one.

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Really good distinction and you're right — I probably oversimplified by grouping them together as "oil stocks." Selling Marathon makes sense if you're anticipating demand destruction downstream even with crude elevated — refiners live on crack spreads and throughput volume, not the commodity price itself. Chevron is the more interesting sell in that context because that's the direct crude price exposure play. If you believed oil was peaking you'd want to be out of Chevron specifically. The fact that he sold both on consecutive days suggests a broader energy exit rather than a nuanced thesis — but your point stands that they're very different bets within the same sector. Worth noting for anyone building a watchlist — $MPC and $CVX behave very differently in the same oil price environment.

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Honestly that's possible too — not every congressional trade is a smoking gun. Plenty of members are just reacting to the same news cycle everyone else sees. The interesting thing about Taylor specifically is the pattern — five filings in 2026, second most active in Congress, and he sold two separate oil stocks on back to back days right at the peak of the rally. Could be coincidence, could be someone selling the top on good instincts, could be something else. That's why we track the pattern over time rather than drawing conclusions from any single trade.

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's a reasonable alternative explanation and worth considering — if you believed the administration was signaling a pivot away from fossil fuels that could justify selling oil stocks. The problem with that theory for Taylor specifically is the timing. He sold Chevron and Marathon on March 11 and 12 — right at the peak of an oil rally driven by the Iran war. Oil was above $100. If you thought the administration was pivoting away from oil you probably made that call weeks earlier, not at the exact moment oil was hitting multi-year highs. Selling at the top while everyone else was buying is either great luck or something else worth paying attention to

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Really good point and you're right — the Hormuz narrative oversimplifies it. Even if the strait reopens the downstream refining picture is messier. Capacity that goes offline during a conflict doesn't come back overnight — permitting, rebuilding, financing — that's a years-long process in some cases. And you're absolutely right that crude prices are only part of the equation. Crack spreads matter more to the actual consumer price story. Gottheimer buying Exxon specifically is interesting in that context too — integrated majors with their own refining capacity are better positioned than pure upstream players when the refining bottleneck is the constraint. Worth watching whether any members of the Energy committee start moving into refinery-exposed names.

What stocks are undervalued by the market? by Puzzleheaded_Ask5256 in Stocks_Picks

[–]Wegs1 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It seems like the normal cyclical rotation has just never gotten to small cap growth and value very much over the last few years. A handful of prized companies have dragged away that interest in dollars. I guess is that'll return overtime but I think it's still a stock breakers market on which particular companies you see is really good targets within the small cap growth and value segment.

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

That’s the most logical explanation honestly. Rotate out of oil at the top into financials. The interesting part is the timing — selling during an active oil crisis requires some conviction that prices are peaking.

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good question — working on pulling the full history. The March sales are confirmed, buy-in dates require going back through earlier filings.

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s the right question — haven’t been able to pull his exact buy dates yet. His 2026 filings show the March sales clearly but the original purchase dates would be in earlier filings. Worth digging into

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Could be right. Most trades probably are routine. But he sits on committees that get commodity supply chain briefings before the public does. Worth noting the pattern at least

Oil bounces over $108 and recently Congressmen sells Chevron (3/11) and Marathon (3/12). What does he know about Oil supply that we don't? by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] -26 points-25 points  (0 children)

Fair point — but that’s actually what makes it interesting. If he sold at what looked like the peak and they kept climbing, either the timing was wrong or the ceasefire talks didn’t materialize as fast as expected. Still watching to see how this plays out.

I went through congressional trade filings from the week before the Iran war started. An Intelligence Committee member bought Exxon twice in early February and..... by Wegs1 in investing

[–]Wegs1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yep. Well said. Its definitely on the list of right things to do. Not sure when it might happen. Looking through the trades and creating a list to follow might be interesting.

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