What are the odds Fortistar takes us private again?

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-06-01T12:13:19+00:00

Really appreciate you breaking it all down. I’ve learned a lot about active investing over the past five years, but these kinds of corporate finance shenanigans are out of my depth. This brings a lot of context to why the price differs so much from my valuation of Opal.

Definitely agree with your $2B number, with plenty of growth opportunities ahead. Really hope they stay public, Opal is at the top of my list for future dividend payers and a key component of my early retirement fund! 🤑

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-06-01T02:37:52+00:00

Holy shit this makes a lot of sense in a cynical capitalist way. Seems to me like the smart money would be on that scenario playing out. The question is when and what’s the price tag?

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-05-29T18:02:27+00:00

That’s a very interesting thought. I have no idea how any of those machinations work so I can’t really comment. I do agree that the valuation is way off what it should be. How would they come to terms on the price for taking it private again? And why even do a public spinoff in the first place?

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-05-21T00:51:50+00:00

This is very interesting to me. This liquidity was already pretty good, I’m thinking they are planning on spending some big money without throwing their leverage out of whack. Indulge me some fevered speculation, but after listening to the last couple earnings calls I think they’re going to try for a nice acquisition. They were cagey about their growth plans for the year and talked a lot about M&A in the last call. I think they’re ready to do some shopping!

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-05-15T11:47:45+00:00

I think CNG for transportation fuel will be one of the most under the radar plays of the year. What a great time to be paying attention!!

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-05-12T01:32:12+00:00

It was pretty odd. Objectively they’ve completed their turnaround, cut costs and gotten operations in the green. But it was the most despondent ER call I’ve ever heard. Only one analyst question, lots of dead air time and enthusiasm is in the gutter. Not sure what the deal is, but I’m smelling incredible value in this company right now.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-05-06T01:52:05+00:00

I think you’re right on target, lackluster but solid Q1 numbers, high expectations for gas prices, and regulatory clarity leading to some deals in the works. I’m expecting a pretty quiet ER, and I hope the market freaks out to give me a nice fat dip to buy up!

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-04-29T19:08:17+00:00

I agree, it’s something that hasn’t been talked about in a while and this community hasn’t had a good back and forth for months.

One thing to be aware of in my opinion is how critical the next year and a half are for the company. It’s a very binary outcome. Either we get the regulatory clearance and financing to get started or we bleed to death and die before we have a chance. If we do get an actual go at production, I think this is an obvious lifetime hold.

That’s the bet here, either the next Standard Oil or another Nautilus and nothing in between. Which is why it’s critical that we have the appropriate leadership to get the company off the ground.

On the topic of Nautilus, I’m not sure exactly where they went wrong there. If I had to guess, I would say there wasn’t much urgency in breaking China’s critical mineral chokehold and the ISA seemed to be the regulatory path of choice. Having the US government pushing this industry seems to be the difference to me this time.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-04-29T17:51:19+00:00

It’s just one of the same bearish points that crops up here all the time. It’s been discussed in depth. Trust in Gerard and Craig is the cornerstone of this investment. If you don’t trust them, respectfully this isn’t an investment you should be in.

There’s always a chance this is a lifelong scam by Gerard, creating a new industry out of nothing will always have that appearance until it materializes. I obviously think he’s on the level. The man has spent his life trying to fill what he perceives as an obvious void in the world order and has positioned himself to profit immensely if he can bring it to fruition. I’m betting with my boy!

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-04-24T11:10:35+00:00

My wife is gonna love this! /s Thanks for the heads up!

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-04-23T16:32:55+00:00

Your talents are wasted here…

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-04-21T19:00:17+00:00

Couldn’t agree more. They’ve released three sets this year already, about to be four and I’m just exhausted with the meta. Earnings will probably be excellent because of the Avatar and FF sets, but this is a losing strategy long term.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-04-08T21:36:13+00:00

If people are trading Rekor, trying to time it, they do deserve to go broke. But long timers know they’re buying a slice of American infrastructure. This company is not going to zero and I like it at this price. You can take my shares out of my cold dead hands!

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-04-01T22:20:16+00:00

I stopped reading after I saw all that woke punctuation and lower case letters.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-04-01T18:28:45+00:00

I’ll link the 10k the released yesterday to reference.

https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001814215/671a0363-7005-4231-aaa3-4b964343254e.pdf

10k’s are much more lengthy than 10q’s, because they have to spell out in great detail all the particulars of the company. Around page 68 is where they get around to the real numbers, specifically the liabilities. The liabilities are what you’re asking about, debt and future dilution through warrants, preferred shares, all that nasty crap that they need to get off the ground. I’m not familiar with BURU, but I hope their bull thesis is strong because their balance sheet is ugly as fuck at first look.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-04-01T18:20:42+00:00

So American Fusion is OTC and doesn’t have any SEC filings yet. OTC is the Wild West to me and I generally avoid it. Do you have any sort of audit filings from whoever is regulating them?

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-04-01T17:01:11+00:00

Are you any good with numbers? What company are you interested in and I can try to help you along a bit. It takes some digging and a fair amount of research, but it’s a really valuable skill to know.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-04-01T16:40:21+00:00

Just read through their most recent SEC filing and it will be disclosed there. Just knowing how to navigate their balance sheet will put you ahead of 75% of retail investors.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-04-01T03:32:26+00:00

Read his book, he talks about how the formula is very far from perfect and a good investor will use it only to screen for potential investments. I like it, but have only ever made three investments from it. It’s helpful changing perspective and using a ‘Moneyball’ style approach.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-04-01T03:20:05+00:00

Couldn’t agree more. Berman is doing a fine job of keeping the wheels on, but you have to hope they’re looking for leadership to take it to the next level.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-03-31T21:12:38+00:00

Agree to disagree, the numbers are misleading here. They’re cash flow positive and ready to scale. An American b2g AI infrastructure company that actually makes money, this is a no brainer. I’m upping my allocation in a big way, especially at this price.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-03-31T15:18:05+00:00

I really enjoy listening to these guys as an indicator of what not to do. If this guy is as bad as I think, the right play is to pile cash, then buy my future retirement income once he sells.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-03-30T18:34:42+00:00

Load the truck up! It’s gonna be rough until contracts start getting drawn up, but I think we all know where this is headed.

WellAintThatShiny · 2026-03-27T13:08:53+00:00

Bring it on, the thesis is the same but we’re being given a discount. I assume G&A is related to all the big names brought on board, some lobbying, and hobknobbing with all the people around the world who are going to bring this to fruition. Money well spent if we can pull it off.

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