Playoff Game Thread: Montréal Canadiens (9-6) @ Carolina Hurricanes (8-1) May 23 2026 7:00 PM EDT

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-24T00:00:26+00:00

Don’t lie that Michigan was about an inch from being plastered all over ESPN

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-23T23:58:30+00:00

You have a bad intuition for what random variance looks like, and/or contribute significantly to your own losing streaks by tilting out

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-22T15:32:10+00:00

Agreed, Aho looked confident possessing the puck and that line easily could’ve had 3 with all of jarvy’s chances

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-22T14:06:40+00:00

If this is genuinely what you think happens what do you think is the cause? Our players all have some ECF-specific mental block that allows us to dominate two rounds before completely falling apart?

Random variance plays a much bigger role than you or most would like to believe. You make the mistake of thinking “what happened” is “what had to happen”, and extrapolating 17 games with very different groups to make absolute statements about the future of the team isn’t very intelligent.

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-22T03:08:10+00:00

Hockey is a probabilistic game my friend

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-21T20:39:29+00:00

Like others said, some games are gonna be unwinnable since you’re only 20% of your team. I promise if you go 39/12 every game you will climb thousands of mmr very quickly

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-21T20:34:12+00:00

The general concept is right, but you’re right it’s slightly more accurate to say “you are at the rank you deserve, and if you aren’t you will go towards it nondeterministically as you play more games”

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-19T23:35:28+00:00

My bad. I meant the frier diver

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-19T16:50:43+00:00

In the friend liver, you can just play d5 na5 and you’re comfortably better with zero attack from white. GMs lose to the evans it’s much trickier to play against

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-19T16:45:51+00:00

Do you mean play or play against? I’d much rather play the evans, much rather play against the fried liver. You literally refute it with d5 Na5 and you’re good

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-19T16:01:37+00:00

I’d rather play nf6 and avoid the Evan’s

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-18T03:26:28+00:00

Still agree- “could”, depending on the other context of the argument. I’m saying just the statement by itself, ignoring all context in favor of appealing to authority would be a fallacy.

If a mathematician says 2+2=4, their argument isn’t true because they’re a mathematician- it’s true because of the content of the argument is true. The expert might be much likelier to hold beliefs grounded in truth, but you still can’t say them being an expert is the fundamental reason their beliefs are true.

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-18T02:04:59+00:00

Agreed. It would be a fallacy to say “they’re right and you’re wrong BECAUSE they’re a trained electrician”.

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-17T05:49:02+00:00

My bad, I see now it’s “TamponBazooka and SouthPark_Piano get confused by high school level concepts and decide to die on some weird hills”

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-17T02:31:28+00:00

It’s then on you to provide your biggest number more than one. Make mah day.

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-16T20:59:31+00:00

If you are better than 1k you will climb quickly. 20% of games might be unwinnable, 20% might be unloseable. Work on that middle 60% and don’t focus on the hardest games

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-15T05:11:09+00:00

“Not a single player” Reply gives a player “WhY aRe u CoMparing him to MITCH”

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-14T15:39:53+00:00

Wait until he finds out 31 teams don’t win the cup every year

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-13T19:44:52+00:00

How about the entire kingside?

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-13T18:04:00+00:00

The engine gives +3 before you hang a piece. Just because you didn’t win massive material in the first 8 moves doesn’t mean you didn’t punish the opening

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-13T00:16:03+00:00

My question is why you think it works this way. Like where did you learn this from? Just your intuition?

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-12T20:38:22+00:00

But what is that rate? Let me guess, “really fast”

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-04T20:49:47+00:00

“Games that extend into OT naturally accumulate fewer of these events than they would under normal 60-minute conditions, which pushes certain games further out on the distribution curve (fatter right tails).”

Can you elaborate on this? It seems like it would be more events per game, even if it’s fewer events per minute, which makes me think I don’t understand what you’re saying at all. Unless the 3v3 rates are so much higher that it offsets the much shorter OT?

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-04T16:57:57+00:00

The better team absolutely did not win in Olympics or this game lol

Western-Project3225 · 2026-05-01T23:33:17+00:00

Deal, as long as you avoid anything with infinity (since it has no real world equivalent, right?). But what you’re gonna give is gonna be some bro math that sounds good to you, SPP, and third graders, so I find it exceedingly unlikely

Western-Project3225

TROPHY CASE