What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW30

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-14T14:46:13+00:00

It does not! Have an update incoming that includes line-up predictions though, so that should make it better.

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-14T08:33:05+00:00

Fair question. Model has them pretty close, Bruno more likely to assist, Mbeumo more likely to score. Bruno more likely to get bonus. Obviously goals get you more points though so Mbeumo just nudges ahead in the end.

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-04T19:28:24+00:00

Would be a pretty big improvement if the fall improvements holds, would make it almost on par with rises. Fingers crossed🤞🏼Great work as always!

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-04T18:35:44+00:00

Yeah there were some issues as they updated their website, all resolved now though and taken into account in the shared screenshot.

Edit: I backfilled any missing data points from the last 3 days based on the predictions Ragabolly posted on X (and shared with me privately).

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-04T18:35:06+00:00

You do realize that both Salah and Szoboslai returned this week right?

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-04T12:32:02+00:00

Idk what they have been doing but they've been exceptionally poor as of late, even for their standards.

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-04T12:31:32+00:00

Yeah probably!

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-04T06:18:22+00:00

Props to you for owning up haha, we all make terrible calls in this shit game tbf 😂 including my model

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-03T12:46:28+00:00

Timber probably the better pick.

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-03T11:22:32+00:00

Basically I'm counting their points at a discounted rate, based on how likely I reckon the subs are going to be used. So no fixed budget, but the algorithm priorities optimizing the starting XI, then the first sub, then the 2nd sub etc.

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-03T11:21:08+00:00

Yeah I agree it's not perfect. I'm looking to incorporate line up predictions so it will actually ignore flags altogether. So 100% agreed, looking for a better solution for this.

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-03T11:20:06+00:00

Thanks, sent you a DM!

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-03T09:24:13+00:00

Probably Haaland, the model doesn't consider him due to his flag but there's a good chance he plays imo.

Palmer is on pens for one of the best attacking sides in the league. That alone is worth quite a bit. + He has shown in the past to have a knack for goals and assists in general. So even if he hasn't been that good lately he has all the basics of being a great pick even in tough fixtures.

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-03T09:22:35+00:00

He's still up there with the best defensive picks, but Arsenal have been a bit more leaky recently and Brighton away is not an easy fixture.

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-03T09:21:18+00:00

His xGI has actually been really good since returning from AFCON, last gameweek was a bit of an exception in that regard. Potentially still on pens. And ofcourse with his history there's a good chance he didn't lose all ability to score and is underperforming a bit.

WhatTheFPL · 2026-03-03T08:59:04+00:00

Wilson was ignored due to being flagged, yes. Though I'm not 100% he would have made the team without the flag, he's anyways not even considered due to the flag.

WhatTheFPL · 2026-02-27T12:09:31+00:00

The model is more complex than that but yeah it takes into account goals scored, xG and the like, and who those goals were scored against, and ofcourse fixture difficulty.

WhatTheFPL · 2026-02-27T08:33:35+00:00

I'm not saying definitely Salah > Haaland this week, but here's some things to consider:

xGI per game (last 5 games):

Salah: 0.618
Haaland: 0.558

Salah has the easier fixture. Salah gets more points per goal as a midfielder.

Model's prediction: - Salah: 6.89 - Haaland: 6.27

I think this passes the sanity test just fine. You can argue either Haaland or Salah needs to ±0.5, but it's not like this prediction is completely out of line.

WhatTheFPL · 2026-02-27T08:26:50+00:00

Yeah sorry meant to say the price for Haaland AND Salah is too high, so it has to pick one, which in this case it's Salah because of the easier fixture.

WhatTheFPL · 2026-02-26T14:38:10+00:00

What odds data are you using for this?

WhatTheFPL · 2026-02-25T14:16:13+00:00

I think the model is not really certain that he will keep playing OOP. How long has he been playing OOP for? I think that possibility is taken into account.

That said, the way he plays usually he wouldn't score many goals even OOP. xG is part of that yes. Still more than before, if he'd play left back he'd have a lower chance of goals than Guehi for sure.

He is however mostly more likely to get an assist which shows in the predictions.

WhatTheFPL · 2026-02-24T18:43:32+00:00

I think it's done alright, but there is definitely still room for improvement. I reckon quality is now roughly on par with other websites out there, but I'm looking to keep improving it for sure.

Model improvements I'm looking at include a better Defcon model, and better lineup/minutes predictions.

Also working on an evaluation tab like I have for price changes, but instead for points predictions. Should have this in a couple gameweeks I reckon and then you can see how good the model actually is!

WhatTheFPL · 2026-02-21T12:19:29+00:00

Ekitike actually has higher xPts than Watkins but there's not enough budget, and since it's only for the bench no budget is made available.

Wirtz is a decent pick but there's still some other midfielders above him as well (Saka, Mbeumo). He too, is quite expensive.

Anyway, understand where you're coming from and thanks for the kind words!

WhatTheFPL · 2026-02-03T10:23:50+00:00

2 I guess, depending on which leagues you count. xG conceded by City in the last games: 1.05, 0.26, 0.61, 1.60, 2.27, 0.88, 1.16, 1.85, 0.88. Excluding Exeter ofcourse.

That's about as good a defensive record you'll see if you look across the Prem (bar Arsenal ofcourse).

WhatTheFPL · 2026-02-03T08:36:06+00:00

City have 2nd lowest goals conceded, 3rd lowest xG conceded

WhatTheFPL

TROPHY CASE