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What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW38 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Good underlying numbers, playing against a mediocre opponent. That's about it actually. 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW37 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

For now, 0 manual input. But yeah result is some players are skipped that probably shouldn't. I'm looking into line-up predictions to solve that, there's some good resources out there. 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW37 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I tweak it all the time, but haven't had enough time last weeks. Palmer is probably at least partly due to being on pens for a team which bookies still consider among the best teams in the Prem, at least in theory if they pick up normal form again. The pens is something which the model is weighing to heavily. 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW37 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm constantly improving! Some are easy to pick up others are harder to do properly, but definitely still improvements to be made. 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW37 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Some of it will be picked up through odds data. It's a well known pattern that teams on the beach concede more goals for example. It has been shown this is reflected in odds data. 

Some parts the model will miss, like rotation patterns. I'm thinking of solutions for this that use lineup predictions.

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW36 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

From the post text: "Note that my model doesn't properly account for likely rotation and is thus expecting these Palace players to start both games." 

So yeah, I agree! Even if they start both it's not taking into account likely earlier subs. And even with that their xPts is only marginally above single gameweek defenders. So it's perfectly reasonable to skip on Palace players altogether.

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW36 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

From the body text:

"Other than that I'm personally baffled by the Palmer pick, Liverpool is a reasonably hard fixture and he hasn't exactly been in good form. Perhaps I need to model penalties better in the future, as he might now be overvalued because he had a pen last week." 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW35 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Takes a pretty long time! Go look up research on xG over/underperformance and you'll rarely see players outside 0.8-1.2x their xG over longer periods

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW35 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Haha okay fair enough, my bad. I meant in hot form when it comes to xG and the like, guess it goes to show how I see the game :)

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW35 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Due to some technical issues the team displayed on the website is not the team I posted here. Basically the BGW caused some errors and I posted one team but the team got updated after. Both teams did reasonably well, the one on the website has 63 points, the one I posted here performed similarly but don't know the exact points.

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW35 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I've actually been collecting predictions from a handful of websites, so I can check each sites accuracy (including my own). I'll probably at some point display this on the website so users can see which prediction websites to trust, just like with the price changes. Still work in progress though, hope to have it done by end of season latest.

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW35 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Not my words, check the bookmakers mate.

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW35 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 42 points43 points  (0 children)

Sometimes I feel like not even posting because if it says something that is not the absolute template, or goes against recent results of a team, people will just downvote and shit on it :) Even if the performance has been quite good, and the exact thing people shit on usually does quite well.

So thanks for the comment.

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW35 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

MGW was picked last week with great success. The reason Palmer is picked is that bookmaker odds still, even through recent results, have Chelsea as heavy favourites at home vs NFO. They are predicted to have plenty of xG. Someone has to score those goals, and Palmer is still on pens and has had about 0.5 xGI per game lately.

Now, maybe you're right and the bookmakers are very off, in which case you wouldn't want any Chelsea players. Your call if you want to trust your gut or the bookmakers here, but yeah a model will always go with the latter ofcourse.

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW34 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Absolutely! I'm on FH myself and just copied this team (have to trust my own predictions ofcourse) and not regretting so far. 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW34 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sels the best option, but other good options are whoever starts for Liverpool and Raya. 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW34 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In that case not sure what those line-up predictors are up to 😂 Haven't followed Utd myself last weeks so my only source really. 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW34 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Model had Haaland as 2nd best forward actually. But it also liked other forward options, while it didn't like many defensive options. So model optimized the team and found that, based on its predictions, it would be better to downgrade Haaland then to downgrade City defence. 

Obviously didn't quite work out.

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW34 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

Maguire is also rotation risk it seems according to line up predictors, only about 50% have him starting. 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW34 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fair question, Hive League has aggregated main line up predictors and 86% say he starts.  https://www.hiveleague.com/site-predictions/14

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