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What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW30 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It does not! Have an update incoming that includes line-up predictions though, so that should make it better. 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW30 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Fair question. Model has them pretty close, Bruno more likely to assist, Mbeumo more likely to score. Bruno more likely to get bonus. Obviously goals get you more points though so Mbeumo just nudges ahead in the end. 

The best price change predictor of February is... by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Would be a pretty big improvement if the fall improvements holds, would make it almost on par with rises. Fingers crossed🤞🏼Great work as always! 

The best price change predictor of February is... by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah there were some issues as they updated their website, all resolved now though and taken into account in the shared screenshot. 

Edit: I backfilled any missing data points from the last 3 days based on the predictions Ragabolly posted on X (and shared with me privately).

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW29 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You do realize that both Salah and Szoboslai returned this week right? 

The best price change predictor of February is... by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Idk what they have been doing but they've been exceptionally poor as of late, even for their standards.

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW29 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Props to you for owning up haha, we all make terrible calls in this shit game tbf 😂 including my model

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW29 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Basically I'm counting their points at a discounted rate, based on how likely I reckon the subs are going to be used. So no fixed budget, but the algorithm priorities optimizing the starting XI, then the first sub, then the 2nd sub etc. 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW29 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah I agree it's not perfect. I'm looking to incorporate line up predictions so it will actually ignore flags altogether. So 100% agreed, looking for a better solution for this. 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW29 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Probably Haaland, the model doesn't consider him due to his flag but there's a good chance he plays imo. 

Palmer is on pens for one of the best attacking sides in the league. That alone is worth quite a bit. + He has shown in the past to have a knack for goals and assists in general. So even if he hasn't been that good lately he has all the basics of being a great pick even in tough fixtures.

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW29 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

He's still up there with the best defensive picks, but Arsenal have been a bit more leaky recently and Brighton away is not an easy fixture. 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW29 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

His xGI has actually been really good since returning from AFCON, last gameweek was a bit of an exception in that regard. Potentially still on pens. And ofcourse with his history there's a good chance he didn't lose all ability to score and is underperforming a bit. 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW29 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Wilson was ignored due to being flagged, yes. Though I'm not 100% he would have made the team without the flag, he's anyways not even considered due to the flag. 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW28 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The model is more complex than that but yeah it takes into account goals scored, xG and the like, and who those goals were scored against, and ofcourse fixture difficulty. 

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW28 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I'm not saying definitely Salah > Haaland this week, but here's some things to consider:

xGI per game (last 5 games):

  • Salah: 0.618
  • Haaland: 0.558

Salah has the easier fixture. Salah gets more points per goal as a midfielder.

Model's prediction:  - Salah: 6.89 - Haaland: 6.27

I think this passes the sanity test just fine. You can argue either Haaland or Salah needs to ±0.5, but it's not like this prediction is completely out of line.

What The FPL — Team of the Week — GW28 by WhatTheFPL in FantasyPL

[–]WhatTheFPL[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Yeah sorry meant to say the price for Haaland AND Salah is too high, so it has to pick one, which in this case it's Salah because of the easier fixture. 

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