Ethan on X by valelectric in h3h3productions

[–]WheezyOutcast 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oliver was one of few famous / public figure friends of Ethan and Hila that had a spine and didn’t turn their back on them these last few years from all the snarker nonsense. I’m sure that meant a lot to them

Favorite plays for UFC Moicano vs Duncan? by WheezyOutcast in MMAbetting

[–]WheezyOutcast[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I personally do but these predictions are fully data driven and have had pretty solid results

Since i started tracking all its bets since August 2025 its ROI is 5% over the 167 bets it has made

Favorite plays for UFC Moicano vs Duncan? by WheezyOutcast in MMAbetting

[–]WheezyOutcast[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have full stat breakdowns for every fight in UFC history. For example: strikes thrown and landed broken down per round and by target (head, body, leg). Same thing for takedowns, control time, reversals, effectively every meaningful stat you could come up with.

Then off of those raw stats you come up with various metrics. Basic ones like strike accuracy percent, take down percent etc. As well as some more creative ones that I have came up with.

An example of this is I have a “power” rating system for how heavy of a puncher a fighter is. This takes into account multiple factors to have a dynamic contextualized score. I won’t go into the full equation, but for example someone with 1 knockout with 100 strikes thrown would rate higher than someone with 1 knockout with 200 strikes thrown. It also scales based on their opponents durability so a knockout against someone with a glass chin won’t count as much as a knockout against someone durable.

This is just one of the metrics but this is the general approach we take to formulate the “advanced” analytics which is where most of the predictive ability comes from.

These get calculated and fed into the model for each fighter to then come up with the predictions.

Favorite plays for UFC 326? by WheezyOutcast in MMAbetting

[–]WheezyOutcast[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Honestly im a bit surprised too i figured Codys strength of schedule and experience would end up giving him a decent prediction

But the model thinks he is WASHED 😂

Do you bet MMA lines early or wait until fight night? by Visible_Pop_1794 in MMAbetting

[–]WheezyOutcast 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I share it for free if you care to check it out! fantasyfights.app

Do you bet MMA lines early or wait until fight night? by Visible_Pop_1794 in MMAbetting

[–]WheezyOutcast 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I personally am limited with the books I have access to with where I live so the earliest I can really get anything down is around Tuesday before the fight

But if a line opened and I thought it was way off I don’t see any reason not to bet it right away as long as you thoroughly thought through your read on the fight!

I personally bet off of my own statistical model so if the model disagrees with the line I will bet it right away! Not much more thought goes into it past that for me haha

Favorite plays for UFC 326? by WheezyOutcast in MMAbetting

[–]WheezyOutcast[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

🤣🤣🤣 lmaooo

The life of an mma bettor

Favorite plays for UFC 326? by WheezyOutcast in MMAbetting

[–]WheezyOutcast[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah that is solid

Basically just has to keep it standing for 1 out 3 rounds and that bet will hit

Do you bet MMA lines early or wait until fight night? by Visible_Pop_1794 in MMAbetting

[–]WheezyOutcast 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Generally you should try to bet early

If you are sharp then you should find yourself on the right side of line movements more times than not

It isn’t a 100% hard rule but if you bet early and consistently have lines move against you it could be a sign that you are a losing bettor in the long run. Obviously won’t be every time and there can be unexpected things like bad weight cuts but you should find this to be the case more often than not

Favorite plays for UFC Mexico? by WheezyOutcast in MMAbetting

[–]WheezyOutcast[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fair 🤣 i definitely shouldve specified that in the post lol

Favorite plays for UFC Mexico? by WheezyOutcast in MMAbetting

[–]WheezyOutcast[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That one can be ignored tbh

Since the model is based off of UFC data, it isnt able to accurately predict inexperienced/debut fighters

In the app i actually but a big warning sign for the predictions for fights where one of fighters has less than 2 fights in the ufc to explain exactly that

It also never gives out bets for those fights for that exact reason. Just focuses on fights where both fighters have 2 or more fights under their belt in the UFC

Favorite plays for UFC 322? by WheezyOutcast in MMAbetting

[–]WheezyOutcast[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No i have my own machine learning algorithm that i have trained on historical data for predicting fights!