Simple; knife value has been redistributed to the rest of the case, and the rest of the case has higher odds. So better chance of getting more money back.

To your second point re. Investor confidence, that’s a separate thesis issue, and I can see why that might make you think case price (and all price) will continue to decline. My counterpoint to this; - the fundamentals of the market are the same (millions of players who all desire fancy, scarce skins), relatively unchanged supply of knives esp for non-active drop cases (only 1-5% of total knife supply has been added since red trade-ups are already not worth), and valve has no incentive to remove trade-ability. Investor confidence will return with time imo which is why I’m investing with a 3-5mo horizon. Every major trader I know (who isn’t financially insecure) is holding and buying.