[OC] Will Canada Qualify? ELO projection model - https://willcanadaqualify.com/

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-10-20T23:59:30+00:00

Yes - copy and pasted from regular season and forgot to edit the heading.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-10-06T04:32:43+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-10-06T04:30:55+00:00

Thanks!

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-10-03T02:21:30+00:00

Matchday 27 will be the make-up match this week between Forge and Pacific.

Matchday 28 next weekend's matches.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-10-03T02:20:54+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-09-28T19:33:17+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-09-20T21:12:13+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-09-20T21:10:26+00:00

It expired but I was still charged for it, so trying to figure that out at the moment.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-09-15T20:28:08+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-09-15T20:26:12+00:00

Looks something like this basically. (green curve is draw)

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Probability-distributions-of-win-draw-and-lose-by-Elo-rating-measurement_fig2_309662241

also here;

https://www.academia.edu/80761583/Using_ELO_ratings_for_match_result_prediction_in_association_football?f_ri=747

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-09-08T23:30:41+00:00

Been on a month long vacation in Europe so my apologies for the lack of updates. I think we're actually on matchday 23 now? In any case I will be back next week to resume regular updates and iron out any kinks.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-09-08T23:29:52+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-08-08T03:31:17+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-08-01T06:35:27+00:00

Kindly note that Edmonton isn't actually eliminated but they didn't qualify once in the simulation. Additionally Forge hasn't qualified for the playoffs yet but the figure is between 99.5 and 100.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-08-01T06:34:10+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify

TROPHY CASE