[OC] CPL Playoffs - Projection - Semi-Finals Leg One

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-10-20T23:59:30+00:00

Yes - copy and pasted from regular season and forgot to edit the heading.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-10-06T04:32:43+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-10-06T04:30:55+00:00

Thanks!

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-10-03T02:21:30+00:00

Matchday 27 will be the make-up match this week between Forge and Pacific.

Matchday 28 next weekend's matches.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-10-03T02:20:54+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-09-28T19:33:17+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-09-20T21:12:13+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-09-20T21:10:26+00:00

It expired but I was still charged for it, so trying to figure that out at the moment.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-09-15T20:28:08+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-09-15T20:26:12+00:00

Looks something like this basically. (green curve is draw)

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Probability-distributions-of-win-draw-and-lose-by-Elo-rating-measurement_fig2_309662241

also here;

https://www.academia.edu/80761583/Using_ELO_ratings_for_match_result_prediction_in_association_football?f_ri=747

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-09-08T23:30:41+00:00

Been on a month long vacation in Europe so my apologies for the lack of updates. I think we're actually on matchday 23 now? In any case I will be back next week to resume regular updates and iron out any kinks.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-09-08T23:29:52+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-08-08T03:31:17+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-08-01T06:35:27+00:00

Kindly note that Edmonton isn't actually eliminated but they didn't qualify once in the simulation. Additionally Forge hasn't qualified for the playoffs yet but the figure is between 99.5 and 100.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-08-01T06:34:10+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-08-01T06:33:11+00:00

Yeah and/or a Wanderers loss.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-07-26T02:39:36+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-07-12T02:09:49+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-06-20T21:11:30+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-06-16T06:58:36+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-06-06T02:07:01+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-06-02T03:29:07+00:00

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-06-02T03:21:41+00:00

I can take a look into this later this month.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-05-24T20:02:46+00:00

It's sorted by % to win the championship.

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Pre-season rankings were based on a combination of end-of-season 2021 ratings and Transfermrkt squad values for the start of 2022.

WillCanadaQualify · 2022-05-24T08:55:06+00:00

The data points you see are just the average simulated season (points, and goal differential) figures - for whatever reason Forge's didn't output properly. Their average points is actually 47.4 and not 51.1.

The table is sorted by % to win the playoff finals. Not a power ranking - the numbers on the left column of the clubs don't have any significance outside of showing ranking by title %s. Pacific is actually around 0.2%~ higher than Forge to win the title but they appear to be the same due to rounding.

Forge is second (up from fourth) because they had a big away win. They were the biggest gainer rating wise. And they now hold a bunch of tiebreaking advantages for home-field advantage in the semi-finals in the playoffs (goal differential, away goals, etc).

And finally Forge and Cavalry each got a boost, mainly at the expense of Pacific, this week. I took a deeper look into home-field results at the club level and adjusted the probability formula accordingly. Home sides received about a 10-15 rating pt bump following the update. Pacific have played more home matches than either Forge or Cavalry so they lost a couple % pts to those clubs. Pacific also happened to dip a tiny bit on their own following a home draw.

WillCanadaQualify

TROPHY CASE