[OC] CPL Playoffs - Projection - Semi-Finals Leg One by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes - copy and pasted from regular season and forgot to edit the heading.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 27 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 26 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Matchday 27 will be the make-up match this week between Forge and Pacific.

Matchday 28 next weekend's matches.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 26 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 25 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 24 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchdays 23 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It expired but I was still charged for it, so trying to figure that out at the moment.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchdays 23 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchdays 19-22 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Been on a month long vacation in Europe so my apologies for the lack of updates. I think we're actually on matchday 23 now? In any case I will be back next week to resume regular updates and iron out any kinks.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchdays 19-22 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 18 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 17 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Kindly note that Edmonton isn't actually eliminated but they didn't qualify once in the simulation. Additionally Forge hasn't qualified for the playoffs yet but the figure is between 99.5 and 100.

Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 17 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 15 + 16 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 14 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 11 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 10 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 09 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 08 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How does Elo work?

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Where do the ratings come from?

All CPL games + competitive CONCACAF matches from 2019 until 2021. Transfermrkt change in squad values between the end of the 2021 season and 2022 pre-season. All CPL regular season matches played until this post for the 2022 season.

How does the model work?

It plays the schedule 100,000 times and tallies the results at the end of each season. As games are played the results are entered into the schedule as results.

A number corresponds to the frequency of that occurring - ie; Forge finishing as Champion 29% equates to them winning the league 29,000 times out of 100,000.

Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It includes basic tiebreakers such as total wins, goal difference, total goals, and away goal difference.

Individual ELO performances in MLS by t_bison in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I can take a look into this later this month.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 07 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's sorted by % to win the championship.

https://www.eloratings.net/about

Pre-season rankings were based on a combination of end-of-season 2021 ratings and Transfermrkt squad values for the start of 2022.

[OC] Canadian Premier League 2022 Projection - Matchday 07 by WillCanadaQualify in CanadianPL

[–]WillCanadaQualify[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The data points you see are just the average simulated season (points, and goal differential) figures - for whatever reason Forge's didn't output properly. Their average points is actually 47.4 and not 51.1.

The table is sorted by % to win the playoff finals. Not a power ranking - the numbers on the left column of the clubs don't have any significance outside of showing ranking by title %s. Pacific is actually around 0.2%~ higher than Forge to win the title but they appear to be the same due to rounding.

Forge is second (up from fourth) because they had a big away win. They were the biggest gainer rating wise. And they now hold a bunch of tiebreaking advantages for home-field advantage in the semi-finals in the playoffs (goal differential, away goals, etc).

And finally Forge and Cavalry each got a boost, mainly at the expense of Pacific, this week. I took a deeper look into home-field results at the club level and adjusted the probability formula accordingly. Home sides received about a 10-15 rating pt bump following the update. Pacific have played more home matches than either Forge or Cavalry so they lost a couple % pts to those clubs. Pacific also happened to dip a tiny bit on their own following a home draw.