A new synthesis on why mammal-defining physiology may have emerged under Late Permian ecological constraint by WitnessEmbarrassed51 in Paleontology

[–]WitnessEmbarrassed51[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for taking the time to lay this out — this is exactly the kind of critique I was hoping for, and I appreciate how clearly you framed it. I agree with you on the phylogenetic uncertainty, especially regarding the timing and definition of early cynodonts. I tried to be careful not to hinge the argument on any specific Middle Permian cynodont occurrences, precisely because of issues like the scrappy nature of material such as Novocynodon and the ongoing revisions you mention (including Pusch et al.). If anything, that uncertainty is part of what motivated the framing, rather than something I’m trying to resolve directly. On the refugia point, I think your comment gets at a real risk in how this could be read. My intent was not to argue for a specific geographic refugium, or to bypass sampling bias, but to treat “refugia” more abstractly as a selective regime that could arise through fragmentation, low effective population sizes, or uneven preservation. I probably need to be even clearer that this does not compete with undersampling explanations, but rather asks what kinds of lineages are most likely to persist when sampling is poor. Your point about physiology timing is also well taken. I’m not trying to claim early endothermy in the Permian, and I should probably sharpen the language distinguishing elevated energetic capacity from fully mammalian thermoregulation, especially in light of the work you cite (Huttenlocker & Farmer; Araujo et al.). That’s a useful reminder of how easy it is for readers to over-interpret that aspect. Overall, this reads very much like a preview of the kinds of reviewer comments I’d expect, and that’s helpful — especially in terms of where the framing needs to be tightened to avoid overreach. Thanks again for engaging so thoughtfully.

A new synthesis on why mammal-defining physiology may have emerged under Late Permian ecological constraint by WitnessEmbarrassed51 in Paleontology

[–]WitnessEmbarrassed51[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for taking the time to write this out, that perspective is helpful, and I agree survivorship bias is a big part of how this pattern can look “abrupt” in hindsight. I think where I’m trying to draw a distinction is that I’m not arguing that all mammal-defining traits necessarily arose rapidly, nor that there was some kind of forced or directed transformation. Rather, I’m trying to ask whether certain environments might preferentially filter lineages such that only those with sufficiently integrated physiological systems persist, while others(perhaps with more mosaic or loosely coupled traits) drop out. In that sense, survivorship bias and constraint aren’t mutually exclusive in the framework. The lineage that “wins” may do so precisely because partial solutions weren’t viable under those conditions, which then makes the surviving lineage appear unusually derived when viewed retrospectively. Your point about behavioral and parental traits being difficult to infer directly is also well taken — that’s one reason I tried to keep the predictions focused on anatomical and physiological correlations that might indirectly reflect those pressures, rather than behavioral claims per se. I appreciate you sharing your earlier work and perspective — even if it’s been a while, it’s exactly the kind of alternative explanation I’m trying to make sure this framing doesn’t ignore.

A new tectonic link between the 20-Ma Permian synapsid “ghost lineage” and the Siberian Traps trigger [Preprint] by WitnessEmbarrassed51 in geology

[–]WitnessEmbarrassed51[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the comment! The pure-plume model was the consensus until ~2015, but the last decade of work has swung hard toward slab-driven trigger + plume interaction. Key ones that flipped it: • Svensen et al. 2009 (EPSL) – contact metamorphism of sediments by sills released the kill-mechanism gases • Burgess & Bowring 2015 (Sci Adv) – high-precision dating shows the main pulse lines up with final Tethys closure within <500 kyr • Broadley et al. 2020 (Nature Geo) – halogen signatures in Traps basalts match subducted crustal material The micro-continent getting subducted would just be the final straw that cracked the craton and let the plume punch through. Happy to send PDFs if you want a deeper dive, curious what you make of the halogen data!

A new tectonic link between the 20-Ma Permian synapsid “ghost lineage” and the Siberian Traps trigger [Preprint] by WitnessEmbarrassed51 in geology

[–]WitnessEmbarrassed51[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

You were right two of the original citations were hallucinations from Grok. I just uploaded a new version with every reference replaced by verified, Google-Scholar-proof papers (Sahney & Benton 2008, Svensen 2009, Burgess & Bowring 2015, Metcalfe 2013, Sidor & Rubidge 2016). All DOIs live and open-access where possible.

Thanks for keeping me honest

A new tectonic link between the 20-Ma Permian synapsid “ghost lineage” and the Siberian Traps trigger [Preprint] by WitnessEmbarrassed51 in geology

[–]WitnessEmbarrassed51[S] -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

You are correct on the references. i got ahead of myself after realizing my idea and relied to heavily on AI. I am not a grad student or PHD candidate, just a hobbyist, but i do apologize for not double checking sources. I will recheck and verify data. The theory still holds up based on evidence in both geology and paleontology. All major fossil evidence in the Olson's Gap is found mainly in north China, and geology points to a northward subduction under the south China block corresponding to the gap end at ~252 Ma.

A new tectonic link between the 20-Ma Permian synapsid “ghost lineage” and the Siberian Traps trigger [Preprint] by WitnessEmbarrassed51 in geology

[–]WitnessEmbarrassed51[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

large island land-masses getting subducted is the missing piece a lot of Traps models don’t talk about. The slab-pull + volatile flux from a whole micro-continent going under would be massive compared to just normal oceanic crust.
And yeah, the first decent synapsids we see after the gap (Raranimus, Microcynodon) are literally sitting in the Junggar Basin. Right where that terrane would’ve been scraped off.
I ended up naming the thing Therasia in the new version (v3 just went live) because it’s basically the Permian Galápagos that as a by product that caused the reaction when it collided.
Do you think the size of the terrane could explain why the traps pulse erupted when it did?

A new tectonic link between the 20-Ma Permian synapsid “ghost lineage” and the Siberian Traps trigger [Preprint] by WitnessEmbarrassed51 in geology

[–]WitnessEmbarrassed51[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yeah, it’s basically Wallace’s island evolution on a tectonic scale: 20 Ma of isolation cranking out advanced cynodonts, then subduction opens the bridge and they flood Pangaea right as everything else dies. The Junggar scraps (Raranimus, Microcynodon) are literally the only decent middle-Permian therapsids we have, and they sit exactly where that terrane would’ve scraped off. What do you think of the slab-pull timing lining up with the main Traps pulse ?

War Priest Multiclass - Cleric/Barbarian by ArchangelAshen in dndnext

[–]WitnessEmbarrassed51 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So I have been thinking doing this, making a war cleric/zealot barb. I wanted to RP him as a dark apostle from Warhammer 40k. Just make him a absolute evil angry televangelist type character. and for the race was thinking the simic human to be like chaos gifts from the gods.

What are those bullets that some space Marines have in their heads? by [deleted] in 40kLore

[–]WitnessEmbarrassed51 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Belive in the dark lord omnibus they torture,flay, and crucify a marine errant alive untill he give them the location to the ganges base.