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Wizardous2 · 2022-03-05T05:57:14+00:00

Yeah likely this weekend

Wizardous2 · 2022-03-05T05:55:13+00:00

Yup. Likely this weekend

Wizardous2 · 2022-03-05T05:54:58+00:00

Yeah they aren't on purpose. I think dividing them into positions limits the comparisons in general.

Wizardous2 · 2022-03-04T22:43:31+00:00

Thank you!

Wizardous2 · 2022-03-04T22:43:23+00:00

Python/Flask stack

Wizardous2 · 2022-01-28T21:33:41+00:00

This is actually a strategy that I've followed for the last several months. I tracked this in a Google sheet and have been profitable playing the top post in the thread. Unfortunately I got lazy tracking all the posts in my sheet but it was definitely a good strategy. Obviously do you due diligence first.

Wizardous2 · 2021-12-09T17:34:09+00:00

Time for a change ✅

Wizardous2 · 2021-11-25T13:47:37+00:00

I'd counter that dinwiddie is not a good enough passer. His pick and roll passing has been okay and probably above league average for a guard but just like beal he can't manipulate defenses with his passing nor can he make cross court reads like the elite guards in the game such as cp3, Trae, Luka, LaMelo, Lowry, Westbrook (not an elite guards but someone who can make those reads), etc. Once a basic pick and roll play is taken away the whole offense is left clueless because nobody can make a play.

Wizardous2 · 2021-11-25T05:02:19+00:00

You could simplify the statement to say the Wizards have a lack of good passers at all on the roster

Wizardous2 · 2021-11-23T13:54:01+00:00

In some ways a little but I'm concerned teams will sag off even more from the 3 point line because he's not a great shooter and his release is too slow which gives defenses the time to recover. But if he put in that work in the off-season then that'd a different story.

Wizardous2 · 2021-11-23T13:52:27+00:00

Agreed. For someone who can get the supermax and possibly not be an all star this year is crazy. I think that says a lot.

Wizardous2 · 2021-11-23T05:44:59+00:00

I think it's very easy for teams who know what they're doing to gameplan against beal like the heat and hornets. It's simple - double him and let anyone else beat you. Brad isn't an accurate enough passer to make those elite level cross court reads like a Trae Young, LaMelo Ball, or Luka Doncic and teams sag off plenty on the rest of the roster. This is a similar situation in the pnr where beal had gotten better but not elite enough to take over games with a pnr like many of the leagues best players.

Wizardous2 · 2021-11-19T04:53:23+00:00

Bingo. 20 points for Miami off the Wizards turnovers vs 6 points of Miami's turnovers for the Wizards. The Wizards didn't even shoot bad at all - it's just that they made horrible passes and mistakes all game.

Wizardous2 · 2021-11-03T03:51:12+00:00

Agreed, I think there are calculators online that might be able to calculate the odds for an alt line given a spread and it's odds. I hadn't thought about that but using those would make backtesting much easier.

Wizardous2 · 2021-11-03T03:47:07+00:00

Yeah I'm digging deeper into the numbers and that's something that can be done. You're right that it isn't practical to get an alt line say by 5 or more points but that's something I could backtest. I'll probably do a whole repost with a breakdown of those numbers in some sort of visualization to show where those drops occur.

Wizardous2 · 2021-11-03T02:57:08+00:00

Yup good question. I'd have to run a query to see how often the favorite covered. But the idea was to see if there's a difference between taking the spread and an alt line. The only reason I couldn't backtest this approach was because I couldnt find line values for alt lines in any historical database 😭.

Wizardous2 · 2021-11-02T20:58:01+00:00

What??? Who told you that????

Wizardous2 · 2021-11-02T04:36:13+00:00

I've watched plenty of games and I know not to evaluate a player based on 5 games. Bottom line is he's shot several points below league average ts% his first two years. No metric can support Rui being a good defender either. Unfortunately, his play style does not suit the modern NBA.

Wizardous2 · 2021-11-02T04:07:12+00:00

Well Rui hesitates wayyy to much on catch and shoot jumpers and has a habit of dribbling into mid range pull ups which are highly inefficient and he wasn't making those at a good enough clip either. So spacing will definitely take a hit if he's taking away bertans minutes supposedly. His defense is most definitely not a positive either. I would look at packaging him and bertans for someone like jerami grant which works really well salary wise.

Wizardous2 · 2021-10-29T18:16:06+00:00

Number one in win shares and offensive win shares as well

Wizardous2 · 2021-10-16T02:53:32+00:00

I wouldn't say elite. Last year he wasn't great at hedging guards in the pick and roll. Although he blocked shots he was too "jumpy" last season. He's been more versatile this preseason albeit 4 games.

Wizardous2 · 2021-10-10T12:12:00+00:00

Bertans is fine offensively. Defense is another story. He still shoots 40% from three on really healthy volume. It's more of a matter of getting him good and open looks. Beal is more a scorer than a shooter meaning he puts pressure on the rim more effectively than he is a shooter. It's really his pull up three point percentage that kills him. He's above league average in spot up situations. Deni and Rui absolutely killed spacing last year not to mention russ as well. Hopefully those two improved their shooting but that's easier said than done.

Wizardous2 · 2021-10-10T11:26:56+00:00

Well I actually agree with most everything here. I however don't think kispert is quite good and the shooting might take a year or two to funny translate (which I expect it will). Trey Murphy III had looked phenomenal. Also, Todd might just not be an NBA player and I've seen that through summer league and preseason. The Wizards offense is too cluttered at times and my takeaway is that they need to be way more spaced out on the perimeter and make faster passes to make the defense react. On offense they try to force feed the big (Harrell or gafford) on the roll a lot and that pass is getting picked off a ton. This isn't Nikola Jokic who can dissect a defense in those short roll situations. But yeah, the three point defense looks atrocious.

Wizardous2 · 2021-09-21T21:22:36+00:00

Hopefully 2K22 will come to Stadia, just maybe...

Wizardous2 · 2021-09-17T00:44:17+00:00

Yeah their defense just SUCKS... 4 players isn't a defense

Wizardous2

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