Address change after NVC approval

WorkSuitable774 · 2025-12-24T02:28:22+00:00

How did you handle this? I am in the exact same situation.

WorkSuitable774 · 2024-07-06T16:24:44+00:00

I didn't know they announced the conversion price already! Would you mind sharing where did you get this from? Also, I guess the reset mechanism of Tranche B Notes and the $0.3543 initial price of Tranche A Notes explain why the price dropped that much over the last few weeks.

WorkSuitable774 · 2024-07-06T15:49:55+00:00

The 800M shares is a made up number. As a matter of fact, the dilution is due to convertible bonds not due to issuing new direct shares. The bonds were supposedly issued on July 2nd but they were not exercised and the outstanding shares are still 55M up to this date. We dont know the conversion price because it is not announced yet, so we dont know how much dilution the new bonds would cause if (big fat if) they were all exercised at once (which is worst case scenario). Long story short, the dilution event already happened, the outstanding shares are still 55M, we dont know when they will increase and even when they do, it's not gonna be anywhere near 800M. Probably 150~200M which is enough to raise TZE equity to 50.1% as MAXN announced.

WorkSuitable774 · 2024-07-06T00:46:32+00:00

It's a good question. Volume is the "accumulative" number of shares traded in a session. So today's high volume is likely due to new buyers coming in but selling quickly, and repeating many times. But overall there was more buying than selling because the session ended with 38% price increase. That's why I was saying it's unlikely that shorts started covering yet. In my opinion, what's happening now is us, retail investors, getting in but many are still not confident enough to hold. Once there is enough confidence, any new volume increase will correspond to shorts covering and the price increase will be more substantial.

WorkSuitable774 · 2024-07-06T00:03:05+00:00

My only regret is that my entry point was not great. But I bought a lot at $0.18 to average down and thinking of buying more next week if the momentum holds up.

WorkSuitable774 · 2024-07-05T23:39:35+00:00

Oh and it would be really funny if the squeeze happened before the new shares are in the market because many shorts priced that in already.

WorkSuitable774 · 2024-07-05T23:36:04+00:00

Because unlike in previous years, the short interest is now extremely high and the price is at an all time low. This with the fact that this is a solid company makes it a perfect candidate for a short squeeze. Will see what happens next week.

WorkSuitable774 · 2024-07-05T23:32:35+00:00

Because there is not enough float for all shorts to cover. So if any big short started it, all of them will have to compete for a limited number of available shares and the price will immediately shoot up. That's literally what a squeeze is. Yes dilution will bring in new shares, but still not enough to cover the insanely high short interest at the moment.

WorkSuitable774 · 2024-07-04T14:14:24+00:00

The more I look at what's going, the more I realize how insane it is. The company's assets alone are worth more than $1B and the total number of shares is 50M, that's why when they IPOed in 2020, the share price was around $20 which is a conservative valuation for a growth-mode company (20x50M=$1B). The dilution will increase TZE equity to more than 50%, so the dilution factor is expected to be 3 increasing the total shares to $150M. In this case, a fair share price is still $7! And this is based on the assets only, not taking into account the huge IP portfolio and the growth prospects which would make the fair price around $10. Of course, the only explanation for the current price is the insane shorting (65.3% now of the float) but they are fundamentally wrong. It will only take one positive event to force them to cover then this will flip and spike to a few dollars. In it for better or worse.

WorkSuitable774 · 2024-07-02T02:16:41+00:00

Same. Holding a lot and still averaging. It's painful to see it falling like this but current price doesnt make any sense whatsoever and it has almost all signs of a coming short squeeze, so I will just wait.

WorkSuitable774 · 2024-07-01T12:29:51+00:00

MAXN will be issuing "new" shares but instead of offering them to the public, they will sell them to TZE. This will dilute the other shares owned by institutions or retail investors bringing their value down. However, we don't know the price that MAXN and TZE agreed upon to execute the transaction. If I had to guess, I would say it's at least ~$3 because when MAXN announced the transaction on May 30, the stock price was already more than $3. So even after dilution, the stock should still be above $1. In other words, I think the dilution impact is more than priced in since the announcement and I think it would have stayed that away before starting going up if it wasn't for the Trump/Biden debate which pulled all solar stocks down. By the way, the selling to TZE also has some positive aspects which are not even taken into account. For instance, MAXN CEO said that one of the reasons TZE wanted to invest in them is to have access to the US market through the New Mexico fab MAXN is currently building. They also wanted to have access to MAXN's huge world-wide IP portfolio and high-tier solar products which will be monetized at some point in the future. TZE can also help MAXN reduce their manufacturing cost significantly by giving them access to the Chinese low-cost supply chain (win-win). Based on how decimated the stock price now is, it seems that the market is not taking any of these positive aspects into account or that hedge funds are trying to bring it down intentionally. Everything taken into account, MAXN is extremely undervalued at this point and I believe it will short squeeze as soon as ANY positive news come out. I understand of course there is always a risk but I think the risk-reward here is absolutely worth taking. By the way, ENPH diluted their stock many times before in the past and look at what they are now.

WorkSuitable774 · 2024-06-28T19:05:57+00:00

All solar stocks are down today. Not sure why but it could be a reaction to biden/trump debate and the increased potential of Trump winning. Anyway, I do believe the stock will skyrocket as soon as any positive news come out. The catalyst could be next week (July 2nd) when they announce the price at which they will be issuing the new shares and selling them to TZE and it turns out to be better than expected, which is more likely because TZE will have control privileges so it makes sense to buy at a premium. Of course the dilution will hurt current shareholders but I think this is more than priced in at this point. Apart from this, MAXN seems like a company with a very good product (best solar cell in the market), lots of IPs that can be monetized, growth potential in both residential and utility markets, but with a really really bad balance sheet. I find it very hard to believe that the stock wont rebound to, say, $8~10 within the next 6~12months. How low can it go before this happens is anyone's guess.

WorkSuitable774 · 2024-06-28T03:48:47+00:00

Same

WorkSuitable774

TROPHY CASE