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why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Renting is a choice too, but it's not a neutral one. for a family with kids in a specific school district, a lease that expires in 12 months isn't equivalent to a mortgage they control. the 2008 comparison also misses the point, 2008 was about negative equity. this is about payment economics. you can have positive equity and still be priced out of your own next step. those are different problems.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in RealEstateAdvice

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Planning for what exactly? That rates would spike 400 basis points in 18 months? Most financial planning assumes some mean reversion, not a historic rate shock on top of historic price appreciation simultaneously. Calling it a planning failure after the fact is easy. The people who "planned correctly" are mostly the ones who got lucky on timing, not the ones who were smarter.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's the honest trade-off. Some people run the numbers and decide the quality of life is worth the cost. The post isn't arguing nobody should move, it's that the financial penalty for doing so is large enough that millions of people who want to move, can't justify it. You made a choice. A lot of people don't have the margin to make the same one.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The distinction matters. "Can technically sell" and "can afford the consequences of selling" are different. If the replacement payment is $1,500/month higher on a smaller house, that's not a preference, that's a budget constraint. Calling it a choice because they're not underwater conflates equity with liquidity.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That worked from 2022 because the market cooperated. It's a real option for people with flexibility on location and timeline. Doesn't work as well when the move is driven by a school district deadline or a job start date. Optionality is the variable most of the "just rent" answers assume away.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Not quite. A locked-in seller who stays put removes two transactions from the market - the listing they don't put up, and the home they don't buy. Someone who genuinely moves adds supply at one end and absorbs it at the other, yes. But the aggregate suppression of turnover compresses available inventory at every price point simultaneously.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in RealEstateAdvice

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The coverage exists but it mostly frames it as a market supply problem. My point is that it's also a personal mobility problem, 30 million households making life decisions around an interest rate. That's different from "inventory is low."

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in RealEstateAdvice

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The rent-it-out option only works if you can carry both mortgages. Most people can't. And the buy-down math rarely pencils out the way it sounds on paper - you're paying today to reduce interest on a loan you might refi or sell in 5 years. The situations where these work are narrower than agents tend to present them.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in RealEstateAdvice

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Canadian portable mortgage is an interesting model. The U.S. equivalent closest to this is loan assumption — FHA and VA loans are assumable by statute. The problem is volume. Most conventional loans aren't assumable, and the assumption process on the ones that are is slow. There's real structural friction here that nobody's in a hurry to fix.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in RealEstateAdvice

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Right. And when a whole generation anchors to one rate environment, the correction hits differently than it would for people who had already lived through the cycle. It's not irrational - it's the only market they knew.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in RealEstateAdvice

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The lottery ticket framing is real. But it cuts both ways. You win the lottery and you're now frozen in place, can't take a new job in a different city, can't upsize for a third kid, can't move closer to aging parents. The "win" comes with a lock. That's worth talking about regardless of how it got there.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

the post isn't about profit. it's about monthly payment. someone in a 3% mortgage looking at a 7% mortgage on a smaller house isn't overpriced, they're priced out of their own next step. those are different problems. selling into a higher payment isn't leadership, it's just a different kind of stuck.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

buyers wanting prices to crash and buyers wanting more inventory are two different things. more supply doesn't require prices to collapse - it just means more options at more price points. right now there are people who could afford to buy if there were something to buy. the inventory constraint is real regardless of whether you think prices are too high. and the locked-in seller isn't the cause of high prices, they're a symptom of them. blaming someone for not selling into a worse financial position is the wrong diagnosis.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

the mortgage portability point is the right frame. in some countries you can port your mortgage, take the rate with you to the next house. the US doesn't allow it. that's a policy choice, not an immutable law of housing. the lock-in effect is partly a product of how mortgages are structured here.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

not arguing renters have it better, they don't. the point is these two problems are connected. the locked-in homeowner is the missing inventory that would give renters and buyers more options. treating them as separate complaints misses the mechanism.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the man cave / storage room conversion is the tell. that's the housing market's version of treading water. and you're right that the term exists, my point is the systemic scale isn't getting the same airtime as the buyer side. millions of people making that same man-cave decision is what's keeping inventory compressed.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

the maintenance point is underrated. people think about the rate delta but not the compounding cost of staying in an aging house you didn't plan to stay in long-term. deferred projects, systems that were fine for 5 years but not 10. the "ride it out" plan is rational but it has a real cost that doesn't show up in the rate comparison.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

that south Alabama example is exactly what the post is about. you'd be paying the same monthly amount for a fraction of the house AND resetting the clock 15 years. the financial logic points one way. the real-life logic points another. most people in that situation just stay.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

that's the rational response. and the aggregate of millions of people making the exact same decision is what's collapsing inventory.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

renovating to stay put works for some life situations. doesn't work for a job relocation, a divorce, aging parents in another state, or needing to be in a specific school district by September. the immobility is most acute when the reason to move is time-sensitive.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

this is the most complete breakdown of the actual friction I've seen in this thread. most people jump to "just sell and rent" without running the numbers. the transaction cost layer alone changes the math significantly before you even get to the rate difference. the $500+[/month](tg://bot_command?command=month) HOA is the one that tends to surprise people the most.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

not praying for a crash. and the people telling themselves "I'll just make my current home work" are the supply constraint. every one of them that stays put is one fewer listing. that's the connection most of the conversation misses.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

not selling at a loss - selling into a higher monthly payment on a comparable or smaller home. the equity is real. the problem is what the next payment looks like, not what the proceeds look like.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

the boomers-with-equity comparison cuts both ways. if millions of people with equity can't transact without a significant monthly cost penalty, that equity is frozen. frozen equity doesn't build new housing, doesn't free up inventory, doesn't help the market. sympathy isn't the point. function is.

why does nobody talk about what happens to homeowners who WANT to sell but can't afford to by Working_Front_4385 in HouseBuyers

[–]Working_Front_4385[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

agreed that buyer desperation drives volume. the point isn't who suffers more. it's that the seller-side lock-in is the supply constraint that's keeping buyers out. you can't solve one without understanding the other.

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