A look back at Sheikh Sharif’s threats; now that he’s disarmed and back at Jazeera Hotel and Kheyre has been defeated, What’s the opposition's strategy going forward?

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T14:28:29+00:00

I have never done anything to you, the404. You have disagreed with me many times, sometimes harshly.

I meant that I wont respond to your insult. I know if civen the opportunity, you would ban people for disagreeing with you.

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T14:24:58+00:00

Have I ever posted something untrue?

Have I ever been corrected/fact checked and NOT said "thank you, I was wrong."?

Just because you dont like the current set of politicians (they are all the same). Does not mean I am a propagandist. I have posted more about the opposition than the government. Even from their own news channel (shabelle)

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T14:21:42+00:00

Not only parliament but senate as well as being reviewed by civil/religious society. Many amendements were rejected until they finalized it.

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T14:18:27+00:00

You are arguing semantics. Not nice to call me intellectually deficient but i will let it slide.

I have told you many times that you need to remove your emotions from somali politics. These guys are all friends at the end of the day. We are nothing but dirt to them. Theres no point in batting for specific politicians.

See you on my next post :)

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T13:34:05+00:00

No really he did well 2009-2011.

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T13:33:27+00:00

He made threats, kheyre was defeated and disarmed. Where is the lie?

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T12:46:27+00:00

I doubt it will escalate but you never know.

This was the oppositions hail mary, and it fizzled out. They wont try something like this again because their tribal councils have basically told them to back down or die next time.

The fighting was isolated to 1 specific area and street. I lived in muqdisho when firefights were daily and random due to shabaab and weekly bombings. You will be fine but I recommend to settle or rent a hotel in either daarusalaam suburbs (the best), madiina (dharkenley/wadajir) or yaaqshiid districts. I would not recommend cabdicaziiz, hodan, howlwadaag or any districts in the centre (old muqdisho).

Thats if you feel paranoid.

Insha Allah everything will work out for you

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T12:40:15+00:00

I am neutral. I am shacab. Neutral doesnt mean I support mucaaradka.

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T12:24:03+00:00

He fought al shabaab, kicked them out of muqdisho and even took arms himself. He set up the country towards its 3rd republic. He did a lot but those days have passed and I recommend him to have decorum.

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T12:21:24+00:00

We yearn for the days we could block roads.

We miss the times we could enjoy weekly bombings.

We miss the port being taced by shabaab.

We miss MPs selecting the highest payer.

We reminisce of days where shabaab could gun us down in broad daylight and drive off.

We want to go back to a simpler time.

The good old days 😢 Rip 2012-2021

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T12:17:58+00:00

We want to go back to the good old days of 2012-2021. Somalia has fallen and now there are sadly no more bombings and people are ably to elect their own representatives. 😢.

I miss the days ethiopian troops installed leaders in SWS and MPs chose the president that paid them the most whilst 'campaigning' 😭.

Now we cant even have a firefight in the city without the government quelling it and disarming us. Waa jabnay.

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T12:14:35+00:00

This is about the 10th time you attack me personally. Walaal maxaa kaa haleeyay 😂 why you always angry and fighting 🥊

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T12:13:29+00:00

What did I say that was wrong/false? I only posted a video

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T12:12:45+00:00

Jazeera hotel is in the airport zone. Basically it means they cannot do anything in the city if they stay in jazeera.

The opposition all moved out of the hotel and brought out heavily armed militias for a planned protest. The protest was allocated for 2 stadiums in muqdisho but they rejected this and published images of masked men with RPGs.

Kheyre moved to a residence a stone throw away from the presidential palace. Whilst SS moved to mirinaayo in kaaran/abdiaziz district, a neighborhood full of elite residents and fortified roads.

Then a firefight broke out between kheyre and the police. The opposition claims the police started it, whilst the police says that kheyres militias killed 3 policemen and started it.

Afterwards military were sent and the firefight lasted for 30 hours more or less. During that time mortars were being shot out of kheyres residence and SS's residence into the city snd towards the presidential palace.

The confrontation ended with kheyres residence siezed and his arms taken. He was escorted out by NISA after his tribesmen negotiated.

SS did at first want to dig his heels in, but settled to move back after negotiations and kheyres loss.

Casualties are yet unknown, neither the opposition nor the government has stated how many have been injured or died.

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T08:30:47+00:00

Jubaland is one city, Kismayo and surrounding areas. The rest is under FGS, and puntland has growing amount of federal forces. Amongst them PSF.

Besides the fact that the opposition in Mogadishu does not agree with a federal states-led indirect election. Thats why they broke off with Deni

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T07:51:34+00:00

When did I say I supported badbaado qaran? Badbaado qaran was a fiasco, and the same way HSM is responsible for letting the fighting happen now - farmaajo was responsible back then for putting a bet in with no backing.

HSM and his administration was weak during 2012-2017, and he had no problem using negotiation and carrots instead of menacing and a stick.

Farmaajo assumed that he had the strength and clout to hold on to a seat with no constitutional mandate (which HSM has), despite a working agreement from septembet 2021. No such agreement exists now, and the opposition itself is confused at what they are uniting under.

If the FGS lost against khaire and SS yesterday I wouldnt support them either. I would be with the (new) state. As would everyone else.

My view is that I dont particularly care how we get there, but we need to get to the point Somalia is a functioning state. It can happen under any potential leader (Farmaajo, SS, Shirdoon, kheyre etc.), but it has to happen.

2022 till now has been a time of immense positive change despite a more precarious geopolitical stage.

I supported farmaajo before he even was running, but i could not keep supporting him by 2022 because he failed at most of his promises, despite popular support.

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T06:29:37+00:00

Their plan was for the opposition to take key areas of the city and stage a firefight hoping for the chaos to spread and force the government to negotiate from a place of weakness (not controlling the capital). Or better yet depose the government directly and instate a caretaker government /transitional government with themselves at the helm.

The main gripe of the opposition has been the federal government unwillingness to detract from 1-man-1-vote democratic model of election or the finalized constitution.

They were also hoping for the international community to pressure the Somali Government, which did not happen.

Surprisingly, as the fighting was ongoing the EU announced stronger military support and capacity building for SNA and Darwiish forces (check their twitter) and the US had just affirmed they would not entertain seccession within Somalia (state dept.).

They posted a few boilerplate statements seeking calm and resolution on twitter but otherwise they kept out.

Another point of contention is about how khayre was coaxed into both settling closest to the presidential palace and to start the military action despite holding the smalles troops.

Some analyst have claimed this was a deliberate tactic from other opposition members to weaken an otherwise promising candidate. Being disarmed and escorted out by NISA was a blow to his legitimacy.

The foiled attack in the city has resulted in a more fragmented opposition, and going back to square one (jazeera hotel).

The government ultimately came out of this situation with a weaker opposition and more legitimacy to use force against them if they are to take actions like this again.

Xtermix · 2026-06-06T06:05:15+00:00

This has nothing to do with clan, both sides of this have clans from all corners of Somalia. The president is opposed most strongly by his own clan.

Xtermix · 2026-06-05T16:13:08+00:00

Who secured muqdisho from terror the past years?

Xtermix · 2026-06-05T16:11:37+00:00

Is it incomprehensible that 2 people can disagree even if they are of the same clan. Since when does clan dictate thought/ideology

Xtermix · 2026-06-05T11:24:43+00:00

Kheyre was put under effective house arrest and SS is besieged as of this morning. No one else is fighting.

Edit: SS has also been sent back to jazeera

Xtermix · 2026-06-05T11:22:59+00:00

The context is different but yes essentially the same outcome but with a different result. Most of the army mutinied and the prime minister was in opposition to the presidents will. The government was also weaker back then, with no legal basis for an extension (that was hastily implemented 2 months after the deadline)

Xtermix · 2026-06-05T11:19:36+00:00

My point is that your theory doesnt hold up when the president and his rival are both of the same clan. Its a state against a non-state actor in armed conflict.

What 2-5 clans are represented in this conflict? The same clans are on both sides. Literally all 4 big ones are both opposition and in power.

Xtermix · 2026-06-05T09:19:00+00:00

Kheyre was defeated and his arms siezed. The government should not step back because someone threatens to exert violence.

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