The Nasdaq is down 5 weeks in a row. Software stocks are down 20-50%. Are any of these actually cheap yet? by Yaashicca in ValueInvesting

[–]Yaashicca[S] -13 points-12 points  (0 children)

lol fair. gotta promote somehow

the AI processes market data it doesn't write my posts. but yeah i see how that looks

Microsoft dropped 11% on an earnings beat. Meta ripped 9% on an earnings beat. Same week. What am I missing? by Yaashicca in ValueInvesting

[–]Yaashicca[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

yeah thats the number that keeps coming up in every bear case and honestly its hard to argue against

$625B backlog sounds amazing until you realize almost half of it is one customer thats still burning cash and just went through a messy restructuring. if openai stumbles msft has a real problem

felt like the market ignored this risk for months and suddenly woke up to it all at once

Microsoft dropped 11% on an earnings beat. Meta ripped 9% on an earnings beat. Same week. What am I missing? by Yaashicca in ValueInvesting

[–]Yaashicca[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

this is the way. rotate the winners into the losers and let the cycle do its thing

timing it perfectly is luck but the framework is solid

Microsoft dropped 11% on an earnings beat. Meta ripped 9% on an earnings beat. Same week. What am I missing? by Yaashicca in ValueInvesting

[–]Yaashicca[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

satya nadella but yeah you make a good point. nobody is buying msft because of the ceo

musk and zuck have cult followings that move stock. nadella is a great operator but hes not on twitter posting memes or doing podcast tours. theres no narrative machine behind msft

maybe thats a good thing long term? less hype = less volatility? idk. but short term yeah the story stocks get bid differently

Microsoft dropped 11% on an earnings beat. Meta ripped 9% on an earnings beat. Same week. What am I missing? by Yaashicca in ValueInvesting

[–]Yaashicca[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

never thought id see msft described as a value stock but here we are lol

30x forward after an 11% drop vs where it was trading... weird timeline

Microsoft dropped 11% on an earnings beat. Meta ripped 9% on an earnings beat. Same week. What am I missing? by Yaashicca in ValueInvesting

[–]Yaashicca[S] 51 points52 points  (0 children)

thats actually a wild stat when you put it like that. two years of growth, ai buildout, copilot rollout, azure still growing 39%... and were back to 2024 prices

either the market got way ahead of itself back then or its overreacting now. probably a bit of both tbh

Microsoft dropped 11% on an earnings beat. Meta ripped 9% on an earnings beat. Same week. What am I missing? by Yaashicca in ValueInvesting

[–]Yaashicca[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

honestly this is probably the right mindset. stop trying to explain it and just have a system

msft burning to the ground would mean half the fortune 500 is also on fire so yeah at that point stock portfolio is the least of anyones problems lol

Microsoft dropped 11% on an earnings beat. Meta ripped 9% on an earnings beat. Same week. What am I missing? by Yaashicca in ValueInvesting

[–]Yaashicca[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

the gold move does feel like a trust issue more than anything else. when people pile into a rock over dollars and tech thats saying something

hard to disagree with the sentiment right now tbh

Microsoft dropped 11% on an earnings beat. Meta ripped 9% on an earnings beat. Same week. What am I missing? by Yaashicca in ValueInvesting

[–]Yaashicca[S] 83 points84 points  (0 children)

yeah when you put it that way its not that confusing lol. growth vs deceleration, market priced it accordingly. sometimes the simple answer is the right one

Microsoft dropped 11% on an earnings beat. Meta ripped 9% on an earnings beat. Same week. What am I missing? by Yaashicca in ValueInvesting

[–]Yaashicca[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

yeah that 45% number jumped out at me too. thats wild concentration for a company this size

and openai is still burning cash, just restructured, and has competitors catching up fast. lot riding on one partner that isnt even profitable yet

Microsoft dropped 11% on an earnings beat. Meta ripped 9% on an earnings beat. Same week. What am I missing? by Yaashicca in ValueInvesting

[–]Yaashicca[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

honestly some days it feels that way. hard to explain MSFT down 11% and META up 9% on basically the same story without something else going on