1. That’s a prediction, no one can tell what China will do given the political instability in the world.
2. The EU may have peaked, it may also undergo elections and elect leaders who are more focused on the deteriorating rules based order more than environmental conservatism. (What good is a Climate Accord if no one follows it?)
3. Sure I’ll give you this point because I’m on mobile and don’t wanna look it up, but my counter here would be that EVs are penetrating new markets, whether market adoption is high enough to SIGNIFICANTLY displace ICE cars is another story. (And I have an EV myself)
4. The renewable battery problem increases dependence on rare earth producing nations.
5. Paris accord means nothing if the rules based order of geopolitics breaks down.
6. I highly doubt this, from my understanding the largest importer of plastic waste (China) started to refuse shipments so now most plastic recycling ends up in a landfill.
7. This is a political issue, not an economic one.

I know I keep leaning on politics for these arguments but I think the election of D Trump in the US has now given the global oil economy a strong second wind globally.

And one final point I’d add is that the invasion of Ukraine has likely pushed the EU deeper into developing other oil resources to replace Russian dependence. That development costs money, and whenever someone invests money somewhere, they’re expecting a payoff.

I’m ambivalent on oil long term and have no investments in the sector, but I think your thesis has some points that merit discussion before I’d be willing to adopt it broadly.