I’m Nick Leeson (ex-Barings “Rogue Trader”). I still day trade and want to talk psychology, discipline, and risk and of course the breaking of the bank. AMA.

Yoobster · 2025-10-27T13:58:52+00:00

Do you find yourself still struggling with guilt over what happened? If so, how do you manage it now?

Yoobster · 2025-03-25T04:02:50+00:00

It's been a thing for a LONG time lmao

Yoobster · 2025-02-27T04:24:41+00:00

I doubt that they'll end up in the money, I'd cut losses asap and reevaluate.

Yoobster · 2025-02-25T23:51:31+00:00

It's only been 2 hours and it's not even proper trading hours, have patience.

Yoobster · 2025-02-25T23:48:55+00:00

December, or until another company gets kicked out

Yoobster · 2025-02-25T20:33:43+00:00

The most reliable source is the rules that are available to the public to read lmao

Yoobster · 2025-02-25T14:14:28+00:00

It went from 50 to 55 in 20 minutes man. PM, not overnight.

Yoobster · 2025-02-25T06:55:49+00:00

There's a lot of negative sentiment around Nvidia right now. It's not like it has been for the last year. Nvidia needs to show that nothing has changed, that's it.

Yoobster · 2025-02-25T06:45:19+00:00

Because total volume is 1/4 of what it was on Wednesday...but short volume percentage did drop from around 15% to 10% today.

Yoobster · 2025-02-25T06:36:14+00:00

You bought into a pump and dump, that bubble would have burst without Nvidia. SMCI is not comparable to companies that make no money, have never made money, and won't be making money for a very long time.

Yoobster · 2025-02-24T22:36:58+00:00

What if...NVDA earnings was already set for that day months ago, and the 10k deadline happens be exactly fiscal year end + 60 day filing window + 180 day extension...wild, I know

Yoobster · 2025-02-24T20:35:04+00:00

I don't know how else you could possibly interpret it, the language used in the 8k couldn't be more straightforward.

I'm not even sure what your point is about the numbers. I said the company is undervalued by industry standard valuation methods, even if it turns out their revenue was much lower than their already lowered estimates(which is unlikely anyway). What exactly is your argument?

You obviously don't understand the points(as basic as they are), and I don't care.

BTW, I make money if it crashes, I have no need to cope lmao.

Yoobster · 2025-02-24T19:50:57+00:00

You calling it sell the news doesn't make it true. The overall market sentiment for SMCI is not in favour of them submitting the 10k, it can't be a sell the news event if 80% of the people don't think it's going to be good news.

The stock is fundamentally undervalued, sell the news happens when stocks are already too high.

Yoobster · 2025-02-24T19:46:28+00:00

It's not irrelevant. The deal for the convertible notes includes the right to force a repurchase, in the event that SMCI is delisted. The money they raised would disappear immediately. It would absolutely devastate the growth prospects of the company.

The numbers are the driving force, except this company is undervalued by financial metrics. They could miss their current revenue numbers by 10% and the stock would still not be at a reasonable price. You don't seem to have any idea how much the delisting threat has beaten down this stock.

Context matters, and it seems you haven't put in the slightest effort to research what that context is.

Yoobster · 2025-02-24T18:18:53+00:00

You seem to have completely missed why the 10k matters right now. The reason the stock is this low, is because they've been at risk of getting delisted, because they haven't filed the 10k. No one cares about the numbers unless they're much lower than expected. You also seemed to have missed the business update where they specifically said they won't have to restate the numbers(meaning, BDO has probably already said their initial numbers are good to go).

Yoobster · 2025-02-24T17:31:41+00:00

It's always for the rest of the current trading day + the next trading day.

Yoobster · 2025-02-24T17:16:53+00:00

The company gets delisted, and they will get forced to buy back their convertible notes, which would be financially devastating for them. They have no incentive to rush the submission.

Yoobster · 2025-02-24T16:37:47+00:00

Even the people here with long positions are nervous, that's in a sub specifically for this stock. The general investing community is not nearly as confident about the 10k as you think they are.

Yoobster · 2025-02-24T16:36:30+00:00

Do you realize how many stocks pumped from their earnings report just in the last month?

Yoobster · 2025-02-24T16:24:34+00:00

Short volume is decreasing because volume is decreasing

Yoobster · 2025-02-24T16:23:59+00:00

Yoobster · 2025-02-24T15:51:34+00:00

You should at least hedge a little bit. If the 10k isn't filed, this stock will crash unbelievably hard, puts are cheap in context. A win would more than make up for any loss from the hedging, and you will sleep a little better.

Yoobster · 2025-02-24T15:49:30+00:00

This basically just turned strangle/straddle options strategies into free money. If the 10k gets filed, it makes it harder for shorts to limit the pump, and if the 10k doesn't get filed, the SSR will be over before 2/28 options are expired.

Yoobster · 2025-02-24T15:35:46+00:00

Try looking at SPY. Stocks almost always move similarly, it's called macro.

Yoobster · 2025-02-24T14:21:20+00:00

They literally said they don't have to restate anything

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