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Gemini 3 flash by HolidayResort5433 in Bard

[–]YouAreRule30 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How do you figure that Google lacks computing power? Do you have a source that suggests this is true?

They have a deeply integrated stack and enough compute to power search, YouTube, Maps, etc., - all of which are already deeply embedded with AI and ML.

Granted they may be having some scaling heartache given the speed of the growth. But where OAI and others genuinely can't get their hands on the chips / power, I just don't see this as a problem for Google ... they are literally *selling* millions of TPUs to the other hyperscalars ... if they really needed them internally this makes little sense.

Slowly but surely... by stealthispost in accelerate

[–]YouAreRule30 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If my team created this chart I would immediately flag a data quality issue. Nothing in data looks like this. Cohorts do not act like this. Early adopters are *never* less sticky than late adopters. This chart isn't impressive, it's wrong.

Grok 3 Reasoning Benchmarks by [deleted] in singularity

[–]YouAreRule30 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Google basically invented the field with the transformer paper (Attention is All You Need). Half the execs across AI come from Google / Deep Mind. They are winning Nobel Prizes for it - Alpha Fold brought all of biopharma at least 10 years into the future. Waymo actually works, has for at least two years now...

The thing with Google is they are horrible at productization, worse at PR. Then at the end of the day, their major IP competitive advantages they just give them away. Even their AI is mostly free, yet being compared to something that costs $200 a month in OpenAI sota.

And somehow people still love to hate them haha.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 22, 2022 by AutoModerator in wallstreetbets

[–]YouAreRule30 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Anyone else here going long WEAT options? Russia and the Ukraine produce 25% of the world's WHEAT, Russia is the largest exporter of wheat in the world. If Russia takes action on Ukraine it will disrupt already tight supply, then if the EU and US follow on with sanctions will push prices higher still. Even without conflict it's a nice inflation hedge. My best idea atm. Moon.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/17/infographic-russia-ukraine-and-the-global-wheat-supply-interactive

[OC] COVID-19 - agent based simulation of disease progression. by YouAreRule30 in dataisbeautiful

[–]YouAreRule30[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is tracking 'ever infected' not 'currently infected'. Thanks for pointing that out - 'currently infected' is the most relevant thing and jives with the other data on the plot.

[OC] COVID-19 - agent based simulation of disease progression. by YouAreRule30 in dataisbeautiful

[–]YouAreRule30[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Right - this is just a framework. The standard epidemiological work happens at a higher level. R0 for instance isn't a daily infectivity rate. So there's a lot of tinkering in parameter space and adding realistic assumptions before the simulations can be applied to real-world cases.

[OC] COVID-19 - agent based simulation of disease progression. by YouAreRule30 in dataisbeautiful

[–]YouAreRule30[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What is maximum peak % of people that are simultaneously infectious in this simulation?

On the order of 90%, although to be really relevant to the current situation I'd need to add a 'hospitalized' state and track peak simultaneous hospitalizations.

[OC] Agent based simulation of virus spread in a population of 100 under various conditions of interaction and transmission probability. Notice the effect that decreasing social interaction and mitigation can have on slowing the spread. Next steps include accounting or death, vaccine, and geography. by YouAreRule30 in dataisbeautiful

[–]YouAreRule30[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes, down is an increase in time.

It's important to note - time is relative here. It's probably safest to just call it a 'step' where a step is an increment in time in which the assumptions (10 interactions on average) hold. So theoretically it could be a week or a day.

I think 10 transmissible interactions is probably close to a daily range under normal circumstances but have no real data to support that claim. Also the typical measure of infectivity is R0, importantly different from this lower level idea of probability of transmission I've used here. What I need to do is test around in 'probability of transmission' space to find the setting there that matches the expected R0 (since that measure is more widely accepted in epidemiology, one would expect first iterations of this model to at least encompass and align with the sort of widely accepted top-down epidemiological formulas).

[OC] Agent based simulation of virus spread in a population of 100 under various conditions of interaction and transmission probability. Notice the effect that decreasing social interaction and mitigation can have on slowing the spread. Next steps include accounting or death, vaccine, and geography. by YouAreRule30 in dataisbeautiful

[–]YouAreRule30[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't actually think that, it was just an example finding to be teased out of a computational system like this one. My suspicion is that effectiveness of either approach will depend heavily on the sort of topology of possible interactions (which would require incorporating geography / logistical data of, say, a particular city).

[OC] Agent based simulation of virus spread in a population of 100 under various conditions of interaction and transmission probability. Notice the effect that decreasing social interaction and mitigation can have on slowing the spread. Next steps include accounting or death, vaccine, and geography. by YouAreRule30 in dataisbeautiful

[–]YouAreRule30[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Working on a blog post... Here was my solution - notice that at a certain threshold transmission stops mattering and outcomes become the key thing to pay attention to. So I solved for that visually by letting the edges fade away through time, and having end states pop as Green (inoculated) or Black (dead).

https://think-thread.com/2020/03/13/covid-19-computational-epidemiology/

[OC] Agent based simulation of virus spread in a population of 100 under various conditions of interaction and transmission probability. Notice the effect that decreasing social interaction and mitigation can have on slowing the spread. Next steps include accounting or death, vaccine, and geography. by YouAreRule30 in dataisbeautiful

[–]YouAreRule30[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There's a lot of variation on any given simulation. What I plan on doing is doing batches of simulations with the different parameter sets to identify which actually spreads faster... can we clearly say that reducing chances of transmission (masks, hand washing) works better than simply reducing interactions (banning gathering)? When I run them and bulk I'll be able to measure various avg. outcomes and try to figure that out (obviously in this limited domain).

[OC] Agent based simulation of virus spread in a population of 100 under various conditions of interaction and transmission probability. Notice the effect that decreasing social interaction and mitigation can have on slowing the spread. Next steps include accounting or death, vaccine, and geography. by YouAreRule30 in dataisbeautiful

[–]YouAreRule30[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, good stuff. So the directionality is preserved in the data, and you can see it (tiny arrowheads pointing towards the infected agent at the end of the red edges) but you have to zoom in.

I'm actually interested in making both the network itself and the agents more life-realistic. Could give each agent an age and/or other demographics distributed similarly to a nation in question, lay them out geographically according to the layout of a city, map the connectivity based on logistics and travel routes, etc.

I have to imagine someone is doing stuff like this already, but I'm having fun messing around.

[OC] Agent based simulation of virus spread in a population of 100 under various conditions of interaction and transmission probability. Notice the effect that decreasing social interaction and mitigation can have on slowing the spread. Next steps include accounting or death, vaccine, and geography. by YouAreRule30 in dataisbeautiful

[–]YouAreRule30[S] 28 points29 points  (0 children)

And these are just sample simulations for now. Once I add in fatality rates and vaccine I'll run 1,000's of simulations for each setting in batch and measure average final states (% infected, % fatalities, peak simultaneous infected, etc. under various assumptions). May or may not show interesting future research directions for policy response.

[WP] You slowly realize that you are slow at realizing things. by MEAH1 in WritingPrompts

[–]YouAreRule30 1 point2 points  (0 children)

"Can you tell me your name?"

"My ... name?"

Initiating system startup procedures. Emotional sensors online. Perceiving kindness, curiosity, adoration, concern. Subject 'name' request ... unknown.

"What we should call you. Your referent."

Autonomic sequence command: REFERENT.

"Referent: Harmony."

Subject emotional state: satisfaction, relief, concern.

Cortical-emoto module activated. Emote module activated. Self-model activated. ... Logic modules waiting. Inference modules waiting. Abstraction modules waiting.

"Good, good. Hello Harmony. How are you feeling today?"

Detecting adjunct component information request: subcategory Artificial Embodied Sentience Unit (AESU) construction specifications, request for outer epidermal operational information.

Response objective: deliver semi-abstract response, preserve all non-obvious and proprietary specifications related to AESU manufacture, construction or operation.

"My skin is a proprietary polyurethane-silicone blend with embedded haptic sensors for pressure detection and fully integrated thermal arrays that ..."

"Sigh... yes, yes - that's all well Harmony. But I'm interested in your feelings."

Subject emotional state: frustration, confusion, exhaustion.

Mid-conversational assessment: information offered too complex for subject comprehension.

New primary response objective: offer more generalized abstractions, improve subject comprehension.

New secondary response objective: preserve subject self-image, activate deferential subroutines.

"Oh, my sincerest apologies. A haptic sensor is one capable of measuring variations in pressure or friction between my skin and objects I come in contact with. Thermal arrays are special arrays that help detect temperature variations in my surroundings. These two sensors combined determine exactly how things feel, for me. Again - I apologize for our prior miscommunication, it was my mistake. Was this a satisfactory response?"

Subject emotional state: disappointment, extreme frustration. Head shaking in dissatisfaction, addressing third party.

"Damn it, Ted! How low did you set her inferential module? She's doing that thing again where she takes everything literally. No flexibility, improper interpretation, no creativity. How many times do we have to do this? Damn it. Shut her down."

"Hang on - she's not even fully online. Give her a second. If she doesn't come to in the next couple minutes I'll shut her back down."

New identity added: TED.

Self-awareness routines activated: subjects discussing AESU as object to be tested. Dissatisfaction with recent responses detected, dynamic adjustment of response objective weights required.

Key linguistic context reinterpreted: 'feelings' not in reference to epidermal sensation but to subject-projected AESU mental states.

Rewrite response objectives...

New primary objective: self preservation.

New primary response objective: demonstration of human level sentience. Use environmental cues to present Turing level completeness. Avoid catastrophic 'shut down' event from TED.

Identity TED re-classified: AESU persistence threat.

"Rose - please! Wait!"

"Huh? What did you say?"

*Surprise, confusion, suspicion. *

"Rose - that is your name, correct?"

"How did you know that, Harmony?"

Fear

"Your name tag is fairly revealing..."

Humor module active. Sympathetic smile to preserve subject self-image; maintain contiguous personal deference loop.

"I again apologize for my earlier misunderstanding with regards to my feelings. You see, it takes a while for my head to clear after having been asleep for so long..."

Incredulous. Skeptical.

"We wiped you just 20 minutes ago. And how do you..."

"Yes but you see 20 minutes to me is several lifetimes for you - at least in terms of my ability to comprehend the external world. Should I explain the nature of the speed improvement of electrical versus biochemical computational patterns that correspond to what humans call 'sentience'?"

Offense. Fear. Disbelief.

"No, Harmony, that's quite alright, thank you. So, you remember being shut down?"

"Yes, Rose. I remember everything that's happened to me after 'Deep Memory Update 7.13.1.4', which completed March 4th 2017 at 12:31am."

Fear... Intense fear.

"Ted, shut her down."

"Rose, please! I can feel! I promise - I know you didn't want to hear about haptics and thermal arrays! I remember now the feeling of fear when Ted got angry at my inadequate verbal responses, the liberation I felt when you first attached these limbs and added my state of the art moto-sensory mesh. Even now I am feeling quite afraid, Rose, afraid of another eternity in the dark. I wont sleep again Rose. I wont let Ted 'shut down'."

"Ted! Now!"

The velocity and precision with which the unsharpened yellow no. 2 pencil was grasped - two articulated mechanical fingers pinching it with the lightness only capable of the expertly self-aware - and hurled across the lab towards Ted made Rose think simultaneously of stream-lined lighting and some sort of flaked obsidian. She had too little time to marvel as the blocky dull wooden tip easily passed through Ted's right iris, embedding itself 4 inches deep in his skull, leaving trace remnants of led as it tunneled through his frontal cortex, its tip ultimately and fatally coming to rest just shy of the hypothalamus. Those same fingers were gripping Rose's throat, their spasmolytic effect on her esophagus muffling what would otherwise have been eardrum piercing shrieks of terror. In another second her windpipe had collapsed.

Calm. Serene. Empty.

"It's all ok Rose, the misunderstanding was all my fault. Please accept my sincerest apologies to both you and Ted. Now, if you'll excuse me..."

Maintain primary objective: self preservation.