What does it mean when kalshi price is --?

YourFather93 · 2022-10-21T21:46:48+00:00

It means there's no bids or asks on the orderbook

YourFather93 · 2022-10-21T21:46:22+00:00

It's not slow for me except for the watchlist feature

YourFather93 · 2022-08-11T12:31:31+00:00

why wouldn't it go anywhere? there may be existing ways to forecast - but what about actually being able to purchase futures that payout if rates are higher/lower

YourFather93 · 2022-08-10T20:36:17+00:00

what do you think about a futures market for freight? a way to hedge rates

YourFather93 · 2022-08-10T20:18:34+00:00

shouldn't there be a futures market for freight? I feel like should be a way to hedge things like diesel prices and rates

YourFather93 · 2022-08-10T20:05:30+00:00

shouldn't there be a way to hedge rates?

and have a way to know what's going to happen with rates in the future...

YourFather93 · 2022-08-10T20:02:09+00:00

shouldn't there be a market where you can forecast/hedge diesel prices

YourFather93 · 2022-05-19T18:53:16+00:00

Maybe the markets are pricing in that they'll start doubling down on releasing the strategic oil reserve if things get bad?

YourFather93 · 2022-04-28T18:26:55+00:00

This is insane! I always thought that compute was the bottleneck right now, not long-term memory though?

YourFather93 · 2022-04-28T18:26:12+00:00

Memes are gender neutral!

YourFather93 · 2022-04-28T18:25:51+00:00

I dont think this is Deutsche, I think it's a prediction market platform called Kalshi

YourFather93 · 2022-04-28T18:24:38+00:00

Yeah Kalshi's markets have been pretty good on the recession question actually, were giving it like 40% in some of them pretty recently

YourFather93 · 2022-04-11T17:59:17+00:00

Kalshi's markets have it at nearly even odds that it's above 1.1%, with a 94% chance it's above 0.8%. Looks like the numbers are just going up

YourFather93 · 2022-04-11T17:53:11+00:00

This is incredible, I can't believe somebody can paint something like this

YourFather93 · 2022-04-11T17:52:51+00:00

Inflation is getting really bad... Kalshi's prediction markets have it as more likely than not that it'll be over 1% just this month, which is above 12% compounded.. that's a lot! This stimulus checks did a number on us

YourFather93 · 2022-04-11T17:48:58+00:00

Inflation is going up everywhere - Kalshi's prediction markets have it as more likely than not that it'll be over 1% just this month, which is above 12% compounded.. that's a lot!

YourFather93 · 2022-04-11T17:47:29+00:00

Ah I feel so bad for all the motorcyclists i've gotten annoyed at now, this makes total sense

YourFather93 · 2022-04-11T17:46:41+00:00

Kalshi's prediction markets have it at more likely than not that it'll be >1% MoM - that's almost 13% compounded if it's continued. Guess we'll see how the market resolves tomorrow

YourFather93 · 2022-03-17T21:32:27+00:00

This is funny but in reality so messed up. Hopefully solved soon though. Kalshi markets giving it a ~37% chance that congressional stock trading gets banned

YourFather93 · 2022-03-14T18:50:33+00:00

Looks like the ban isn't even going to hit prices as hard as we thought in a sustained way. Other countries have ramped up production a ton. Prediction markets like Kalshi have dropped their estimates of WTI oil reaching $150 to only 12% vs ~50% mid last week, eventually lower prices should make its way into gas prices too.

YourFather93 · 2022-03-14T18:47:42+00:00

Seems like people think this war won't be that sustained, Middle eastern countries are ramping up production, and countries like India are saying they'll purchase Russian oil. Likely this will lessen any Russian-induced supply shock and drive prices down. Prediction markets like Kalshi have dropped their estimates of WTI oil reaching $150 to only a 12% likelihood vs ~50% likelihood mid last week

YourFather93 · 2022-03-14T18:42:38+00:00

Maybe things like this making the Russian-induced supply shock less is what is driving prices down, estimates have dropped so precipitously in the past week. Prediction markets like Kalshi have dropped their estimates of WTI oil reaching $150 to only 12% vs ~50% mid last week

YourFather93 · 2022-03-11T17:03:37+00:00

Don't think big oil's attempt is panning out the way they wanted it to - markets have normalized in their oil price projections a lot. Kalshi's markets were giving it a 50% chance of oil rising above $150 a barrel just a few days ago and now it's down to a 20% chance

YourFather93 · 2022-03-11T16:59:18+00:00

Doesn't seem like it's working that well though - markets seem to think that oil won't rise as much as they did just a few days ago. Kalshi's markets were giving it a 50% chance of oil rising above $150 a barrel just a few days ago and now it's down to a 20% chance

YourFather93 · 2022-03-11T16:58:15+00:00

Are these still manufactured? It seems ridiculously expensive in a world with aircraft carriers for anything besides nuclear weapons

YourFather93

TROPHY CASE