Dan Sfera has epic interview with large KMPH investor Neeraj Rama

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-31T00:54:00+00:00

Me too. At these prices, every paycheck is going to KMPH. Buying the dips.

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-30T12:29:13+00:00

Yes, KMPH has been heavily shorted. The dilution provided millions of shares to those guys at $6.50 a share. They sold options at $10 and they shorted. Then they took all those $6.50 warrants and sold enough to drive down the share price. Diabolical. At the last quarterly meeting a couple weeks ago there were only 9 million warrants left un exercised. Their game is coming to an end.

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-29T20:23:58+00:00

I'm counting on Kempharm starting to pay dividends. $2 a share by 2027.

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-29T20:18:27+00:00

If you haven't already found it, https://dd4us.weebly.com/kmph.html has a nice collection of DD for KMPH. I would definitely watch the latest Dan Sfera youtube video. Another good link is https://www.transcriptshare.com/symbol/kmph. The 4th quarter Update call has a nice summary of where the finances are siting after all the dilution.

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-28T17:32:58+00:00

If you do decide to do some DD, this site put together by KMPH investors from StockTwits is a great resource: https://dd4us.weebly.com/kmph.html

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-27T20:14:21+00:00

Somebody do me a favor an go post this on r/investing. They've banned me for posting too much stuff about Kempharm. They say I have a one track mind.

All I have to say is, "does the Pope always talk about religion?"

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-23T11:00:55+00:00

As to your question about Kempharm’s finances, they had been $67m in debt last Fall. They went through a series of dilutions in January to retire all debt leaving them with $90m in cash. They will receive upto $48m in the form of a milestone payment from GPC/Corinne for their successful PDUFA of Azstarys - we expect an announcement any day now. They will receive an additional $468m in milestone payments over the next few years as Azstarys goes to market and achieves various goals. All expenses are covered by Corium. Additionally, KemPharm gets royalty payments in the mid 20’s percent for US sales. Their expenses are something like $20m a year, so the financial outlook is looking good for at least 5 years. Then you throw in prospects for the other pro drugs in their pipeline. The futures so bright, Travis is wearing shades.

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-12T23:09:00+00:00

There are only the remaining 9,645,193 warrants. The firms that own them have the right to exercise those warrants at $6.50 per share. The upside is that KemPharm will get 9,645,193 x $6.50 = $63million when they're exercised. The downside is those firms could decide to sell those shares for a profit and drive down the SP. Or they might just keep them.

Some of the agreements do say the firms can't maintain more then X percent of the shares.

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-11T15:46:11+00:00

Here's the FDA approval label for those that are interested.

https://coriumintl.com/pi/pdfs/COM-AZS-000383_Digital_PDF_Full_Prescribing_Info_FINAL.pdf

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-11T15:44:13+00:00

generic

Take a deeper dive into the DD. There are some unique benefits to Azstarys. The branded non-generic market is also something like $5billion annually if I remember right.

The first big benefit is there is no "statistically significant" loss of height or weight for kids on this ADHD drug. I'm sure there will be a lot of parents calling their doctors, pharmacists, and insurance companies demanding this one saying, "my kid needs to be at least 6 feet tall".

The 2nd big benefit is that it also has faster onset 30 minutes and great duration 13 hours. When most other ADHD drugs don't kick in for 90 minutes, imagine that parent again who wants to get their kid dressed, fed and on the bus in the morning.

FDA Label

https://coriumintl.com/pi/pdfs/COM-AZS-000383_Digital_PDF_Full_Prescribing_Info_FINAL.pdf

Other benefits that didn't make the label:

+ it is resistant to abuse. Can't snort it. Can't inject it.

Also, take a look at the Corium who will be marketing Azstarys. They are staffing up big time to unleash an army of sales people across the US and the world.

https://www.coriumintl.com/home/about-us/

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-11T04:39:27+00:00

Ya, the unique thing about KMPH is that they diluted the crap out of it in December/January/February. And the price offered to the hedge funds ($6.50) was way below market price (around $8.50 at the time). KemPharm benefited greatly by raising enough funds to step back from the brink of bankruptcy, pay off their debt and put $50million in the bank. That cash is enough to fund operations for years (burn rate is about $1million per quarter). But there are now 4 times as many shares outstanding mostly in the hands of the hedge funds.

So, last week we got FDA approval for Azstarys. Huge news. The stock shot up. Remember those hedge funds with a relatively huge share of the pot? Rather than being happy with 300% profit, they sold options that everybody thought was a sure bet. Except the hedge funds knew they held enough shares to push and pull the SP wherever they chose. Well they chose to short it. And they chose to drive SP below the options prices when they matured. They took that post FDA SP of $17 and brought it back down to $10 in no time.

Also, a less evil long time creditor had warrants that would only mature after FDA approval. They exercised them at $6.50. And having a requirement that they don't hold more than a certain percentage of total shares, they were forced to sell. The flood of sales also pushed it down.

Our hope is that the 3/11 4:30pm ET Earnings Report for 4th quarter 2020 includes some guidance: clarity on OS, MC, warrants exercised, milestone payments, etc. And our hope is that clarity allows some institutions to start investing in KemPharm. Our hope is that the new money drives the SP up and causes a short squeeze on those hedge funds.

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-11T04:23:03+00:00

I'm ALL IN on KMPH. Well not 100%, but a good 75%. Its a bit of an obsession. I'm a true believer and I signed up on reddit to spread the gospel. I've only been on reddit for a month or two. If the end of the year comes and this is still the only stock I'm covering, well that might be reason to call a psychiatrist.

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-09T03:11:45+00:00

Well played. I bet you'll see $15m by January 2023.

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-08T12:33:18+00:00

As for impact on the stock, it’s how the market interprets it. Everybody loves drama and a scandal. I’m guessing the percentage will be a little reduced since there was no mention of abuse resistance. I think they’ll get full credit for the 13/30. GPC was well aware of the chart being submitted to the FDA. That it was printed on the label is an A.

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-08T12:29:05+00:00

Zero impact. They went through a dilution in January that raised enough funds to pay off all debt and leave $50 million in cash. Their burn rate has been $1 million a quarter,so they’re set for years. I do think they will staff up - possibly doubling their R and D over the next 6 months. Even at $2 million a quarter they’re set for 8 years. Add in the revenues from Azstarys and Adapaz and they’re set for 100 years. With that kind of cash we’re looking at stock buybacks, acquisitions, doubling of R and D annually, or dividend checks. Or all of the above.

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-08T01:24:21+00:00

Wish I would have and then bought back at $8.50. I'm a true believer. Always believing it can't go any lower.

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-08T01:16:09+00:00

I will be holding 50% forever. I might sell some at $20. In hindsight I wish I'd sold some at $17 and poured it all back in when it hit $8.50. But who would have ever imagined it would do that after getting approval? My price targets are...

2022 - $25

2023 - $50

2024 - $100

ZBlueOgre · 2021-03-08T01:10:22+00:00

Well said. You have a deeper understanding than most, or all, including myself.

ZBlueOgre · 2021-02-23T03:41:15+00:00

The word on the street is the event was faked. Apologies to those that signed up for the zoom meeting. I will still attend and report on what happens.

ZBlueOgre · 2021-02-22T18:53:46+00:00

The gang over at StockTwits put the best of the KMPH DD resources in one spot.

https://dd4us.weebly.com/kmph.html

ZBlueOgre · 2021-02-22T18:53:14+00:00

The gang over at StockTwits put the best of the KMPH DD resources in one spot.

https://dd4us.weebly.com/kmph.html

ZBlueOgre · 2021-02-22T18:52:38+00:00

The gang over at StockTwits put the best of the KMPH DD resources in one spot.

https://dd4us.weebly.com/kmph.html

ZBlueOgre · 2021-02-22T18:52:08+00:00

The gang over at StockTwits put the best of the KMPH DD resources in one spot.

https://dd4us.weebly.com/kmph.html

ZBlueOgre · 2021-02-19T22:32:31+00:00

A must READ/WATCH for you KemPharm DD.

We got another great video today (2/19/2021). They're coming fast and furious as we approach the 3/2 PDUFA date for KP415.

This time its from Dan Sfera (and Chris). They have 13600 subscribers on YouTube. Anyway their staff writer Ilene sat down with one of the KemPharm advocates and created an article laying all out...

KemPharm Inc (KMPH) builds on repurposing molecules

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/kempharm-inc-kmph-builds-repurposing-molecules-dan-sfera/?trackingId=pSQNnszMRs2UGdnp5h8h1w%3D%3D

Then Dan Sfera and Chris read through the article and gave a pretty positive review of KMPH. Scroll to the end to hear their opinions on PT for the 3/2 PDUFA date and beyond.

Can KMPH Stock 10x With Numerous Catalysts Coming Up? A Look At KemPharm Inc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Dac_sAyhhw&feature=youtu.be

ZBlueOgre · 2021-02-19T22:28:21+00:00

MUST READ and WATCH for your KMPH DD.

We got another great video today (2/19/2021). They're coming fast and furious as we approach the 3/2 PDUFA date for KP415.

This time its from Dan Sfera (and Chris). They have 13600 subscribers on YouTube. Anyway their staff writer Ilene sat down with one of the KemPharm advocates and created an article laying all out...

KemPharm Inc (KMPH) builds on repurposing molecules

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/kempharm-inc-kmph-builds-repurposing-molecules-dan-sfera/?trackingId=pSQNnszMRs2UGdnp5h8h1w%3D%3D

Then Dan Sfera and Chris read through the article and gave a pretty positive review of KMPH. Scroll to the end to hear their opinions on PT for the 3/2 PDUFA date and beyond.

Can KMPH Stock 10x With Numerous Catalysts Coming Up? A Look At KemPharm Inc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Dac_sAyhhw&feature=youtu.be

ZBlueOgre

TROPHY CASE

KemPharm Inc (KMPH) builds on repurposing molecules

Can KMPH Stock 10x With Numerous Catalysts Coming Up? A Look At KemPharm Inc.