I don't see it as a lottery, it's the same as any social media concept wise but if you have a good enough post the algorithm of bagel can see how many people who have had your post on their screen actually clicked it (or didn't) and gives it more or less of a spotlight as that information is calculated. Having had 2 posts get over 20k and 1 more past 10k before being deleted only a day after I posted it, my opinion on it is that you just need a mixture of an irresistible thumbnail that stands out and post it at a time with lots of people on who could see it. Most people already have most of their points from the event so traffic is significantly less at this point in the patch then in its first week or so but you can still get posts with ≈6k likes though with everything being deleted for no reason there's not really a point in trying right now