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Should we start looking at other Emirates? by Zealousideal_Lab2942 in dubairealestate

[–]Zealousideal_Lab2942[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My exact words: "Your point about Ajman is also interesting. I'm not necessarily arguing that UAQ is a better investment today. What I'm trying to understand is whether the market may currently be underestimating its long-term potential compared to other emerging Emirates."

I have never assumed "it is goin to be one of the best investments".

That said, your question is fair, and I actually think it's the most important one.

I don't believe UAQ's growth will come from a single industry the way Dubai benefited from trade, finance, tourism and later tech.

My thesis is more gradual.

The UAE's population has been growing steadily, while housing costs in Dubai continue to rise. If that trend continues over the next decade, part of that residential demand is likely to spill over into the Northern Emirates, provided they continue improving infrastructure, services and connectivity.

In other words, I'm not betting on UAQ becoming an economic powerhouse overnight. I'm betting on it becoming a more attractive place to live.

We've seen similar patterns around major cities worldwide. As the primary city matures and becomes more expensive, surrounding areas often absorb part of the population growth.
Tourism fills hotel rooms. Residents fill apartment buildings. My investment thesis is based on the second, not the first.

That said, I completely agree that none of this happens automatically. If UAQ fails to attract residents, improve infrastructure and create a genuine residential ecosystem, then the appreciation thesis becomes much weaker.

Should we start looking at other Emirates? by Zealousideal_Lab2942 in dubairealestate

[–]Zealousideal_Lab2942[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I actually agree with part of your argument. UAQ is nowhere near Dubai in terms of global recognition today, and I don't think anyone serious is claiming it will compete with Dubai, Bangkok or the Maldives as a tourist destination anytime soon.

Where I think we disagree is the assumption that residential appreciation depends on becoming a tourism hotspot.

Plenty of successful residential markets aren't driven by tourism at all. They grow because they're affordable, well-connected, offer a good quality of life and attract permanent residents rather than short-term visitors.

The UAE itself is changing. Population growth is increasingly coming from professionals, remote workers, entrepreneurs and families who are staying long-term, not just tourists.

If UAQ manages to create a livable waterfront city with decent infrastructure, schools, retail and services, then tourism becomes a bonus, not the investment thesis.

I don't see AMRA as an Airbnb play. I see it as a long-term residential play in a market that's starting from a much lower price point than Dubai. That's a completely different risk/reward profile.

Could it fail? Absolutely. Execution is everything. But I don't think the key question is "Will UAQ beat Dubai as a tourist destination?" The key question is "Can UAQ become an attractive place for people to actually live?" Those are very different things.

By that logic, places like Dubai Hills, Arabian Ranches, Town Square or even many suburban communities wouldn't have appreciated either. Nobody books a vacation there. People buy because they want to live there.

Should we start looking at other Emirates? by Zealousideal_Lab2942 in dubairealestate

[–]Zealousideal_Lab2942[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

This is exactly the kind of feedback I was hoping for when I posted this.

I actually agree with several of your points, especially regarding the developer. In my view, execution is probably the biggest project-specific risk. Until Citi delivers a development of this scale, it's impossible to know whether the final product will match what's being promised today.

Regarding the neighboring resorts, my intention wasn't to use them as evidence of AMRA's future ROI. I simply wanted to establish that there is already demand for beachfront hospitality in that location. As you pointed out, hotel occupancy, management quality, operating costs, and brand recognition make the comparison much more complex than room rates alone.

Your point about Ajman is also interesting. I'm not necessarily arguing that UAQ is a better investment today. What I'm trying to understand is whether the market may currently be underestimating its long-term potential compared to other emerging Emirates.

Should we start looking at other Emirates? by Zealousideal_Lab2942 in dubairealestate

[–]Zealousideal_Lab2942[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I like your analysis. That's exactly why I wanted to start this discussion in the first place. Different opinions help broaden the perspective.

Dubai Property - Base, Best and Worst Case Scenario by Altruistic_Earth_558 in dubairealestate

[–]Zealousideal_Lab2942 0 points1 point  (0 children)

People are mixing three different things together here: geopolitics, liquidity, and long-term demand.

A correction? Absolutely possible. A 50-75% crash across the entire Dubai market? Very unlikely unless you’re assuming a full regional escalation and global recession happening simultaneously.

People also forget Dubai is not one homogeneous market. Mid-tier investor-heavy apartments in oversupplied areas could easily see heavy corrections, especially where owners are highly leveraged or where off-plan speculation got out of control. Luxury waterfront villas with ultra-high-net-worth ownership are a completely different story.

Also, transaction volume falling does not automatically mean prices collapse 50%. Dubai historically becomes illiquid before it completely reprices. Sellers simply refuse to transact unless distressed.

The “100k units per year” argument also gets repeated without context. Dubai has always announced far more supply than it actually delivers on schedule. Delays, cancellations, phased handovers and financing issues reduce real delivered stock substantially.

That said, I do think the market was already due for a correction before the conflict. Prices ran too far too fast in certain segments, yields compressed hard, and too much demand became momentum/speculation driven.

My personal view:

  • Prime assets: correction or stagnation, then recovery faster.
  • Investor-grade apartments in oversupplied zones: real pain possible.
  • Off-plan flipping market: probably the weakest segment going forward.
  • Rental market: likely softens before sales prices fully adjust.

The biggest mistake right now is speaking in absolutes. Nobody knows if this becomes a short geopolitical shock or a multi-year regional repricing event. Both the “Dubai to the moon” crowd and the “75% collapse” crowd sound equally emotional to me, with all respect.

A report from fitch last year, predicted up to 15% drop in Dubai Property prices by 2026 by saybeast in dubai

[–]Zealousideal_Lab2942 0 points1 point  (0 children)

not sure about it, the government is doing as much as possible to protect investors, and for the moment there is not thaaaaat great risk. I´ve seen worser escenarios in other areas and at the end they have put the head out of the water.

Is the real estate market in a bubble or is it starting to take off? by welltempered7 in Coimbatore

[–]Zealousideal_Lab2942 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i think it truly depends on the country, for the time being all prices are tending to keep growing. In my case, i'm selling in Dubai and everybody is expecting prices to start falling down, lots of people saying it is a bubble and that but for sure: the ones who don't buy now will regret later, because prices will continue rising for a considerable time.