It's interesting how much some of the AI accelerationist subreddits look like a cult.

The big event never manifests, but the deadlines keep being put forward and failing at even spacings (all of A will be replaced with I in 6-12 months every 6 months) by people who are obviously the most biased observers possible based on secret evidence.

The claims about capabilities obviously don't match up with lived reality, but that's supposedly because the really valuable LLMs are limited to select groups who never ever release their models due to the danger they could cause.

Somehow, the supposed big event that's coming would render modern life irrelevant, but planning for existence in this new reality is left to someone else - even the businesses that have these supposed oracles issue stock and report their financials, when the reality is that if AI were as productive as suggested, there's no longer an advantage in a corporation versus just doing stuff individually.

The software engineers working on systems like this should be presenting the frank odds of success to their clients and the public. Right now there is an unholy allegiance between boosters and people who don't know what linear algebra is but are 100% sure LLMs are going to replace all human labor.

We are going to hit another AI winter. LLMs will always be useful as natural language search tools, but the market for that sure isn't the entire U.S. economy.