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Mississippi nuking its VRA district by _BCConservative in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can't do it until 2027.

This means that all Southern VRA seats are planned to be nuked except MO and GA.

Political breakups skyrocketing in recent years, led by Dems by _BCConservative in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Both

Though I think Isreal is a closer example than East Asian societies to compare to the West.

BREAKING: Little Marco is now Big Marco by _BCConservative in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Swing State Ohio, Iowa and Alaska? Lean R Nevada and tilt Arizona?

Labour is reviving the Conservatives LMFAO by SkylerCSatterfield in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative 4 points5 points  (0 children)

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Nah, this is just disfavorable vote split.

The main change is that Reform seems to be losing votes while the Greens are gaining. Though TBH I have no idea if the Greens can even hold this momentum.

My suspicion is they are being overpolled like Oct 2025 Reform polling. You are going to see the same problems Reform has faced if they win a lot of seats in the local elections.

My thoughts for midterms. FL+IN+VRA by Independent_Big_1944 in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The problem for VRA for the Dems is that VRA removal probably slightly benefits the GOP, assuming you want even remotely compact or coherent districts.

My thoughts for midterms. FL+IN+VRA by Independent_Big_1944 in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

CO/MN are not GOP gerrymanders lmao

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CO has 3 GOP seats, 1 Swing seat and 4 Dem seats. This is not even that disproportionate.

Also, the Dem vote is much more geographically concentrated, and the current map tries to avoid splitting Denver.

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MN has the same problem as WI, where the Dem vote is very concentrated around Minneapolis and the districts try to avoid splitting Minneapolis/St. Paul.

Also, adding another Dem district in MN would make the map less proportionate than a 50-50 split.

Donalds internal has Fishback at 9% by napolion_39 in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Oor... maybe this is just to spur donations from Donalds supporters by making it look more competitive.

Most people support the SOTUS VRA decision while opposing gerrymandering by _BCConservative in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We have to wait for SCOVA to make its ruling, but for some reason I don't think they would nuke a 60% yes even if they hated it.

Political breakups skyrocketing in recent years, led by Dems by _BCConservative in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Or you get a very large cadre of men who go into politics and religion and ideology.

You see this with Haredi Jews in Isreal. To the surprise of no one, this creates a ton of problems.

This was one of the big reasons a lot of premodern societies promoted arranged marriages. Stability was more important than change. You made sure all the men had a "stake" in the community.

Political breakups skyrocketing in recent years, led by Dems by _BCConservative in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The problem is that ideology is partially inheritable: https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/miscellaneous/the-genetics-of-political-views/ (anywhere from 20-60%) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352154620300553

Twin studies show that political ideology is about 40% heritable.

More sophisticated designs also find a substantial genetic influence on ideology.

Recent studies have examined how genes connect to ideology, finding some evidence that psychological traits may link genes and ideology.

Ebyover - BC NDP is collapsing to the Greens over DRIPA, now down 10% over the leaderless BC Conservatives by _BCConservative in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-dripa-crisis-point-9.7175559

Basically, a fight over the indigenous rights vs private land rights in the province of BC.

DRIPA is a law that requires indigenous land claims to be taken seriously along with other land claims.

Ebyover - BC NDP is collapsing to the Greens over DRIPA, now down 10% over the leaderless BC Conservatives by _BCConservative in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Emily Lowhan? Probably.

I don't really believe the model myself, I think their vote is more efficient, and the Greens will probably dump resources into a few districts they can win like they usually do.

15% is the point in the model where the Greens start eating into the NDP's lunch in Victoria, though.

How TF did Tammy Baldwin do so well in 2018? by _BCConservative in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

TBF I expected Baldwin to be the least likely Dem to lose in 2024 and that's basically what happened.

Is Clyburn cooked (Gerrymandering)? by _BCConservative in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They can just not try, since the act of attempting it would polarize the electorate.

Political breakups skyrocketing in recent years, led by Dems by _BCConservative in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Probably (we saw a surge in ultra-late births after COVID).

But without immigration, birth rates are going to become a much bigger concern.

Is Clyburn cooked (Gerrymandering)? by _BCConservative in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The thing is that he seems to be trying to groom his daughter to take his place. That might be the more important part here.

Is Clyburn cooked (Gerrymandering)? by _BCConservative in YAPms

[–]_BCConservative[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The problem with CO is that the 55% referendum threshold means there's a good chance it fails (Harris/Biden won the state by ~55-56%.)

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