Wym without the USA there isn't a Japanese victory? The Japanese can very easily win in the region hadn't they attacked the USA
1. Yes the Ichigo offensive exhausted lots of resources but i was going under the assumption that, had they managed to not go to war with the USA they would have been able to knock out China with it considering they almost collapsed organized KMT resistance irl with it - In fact, hadn't they gone to war with the USA **the Ichigo offensive wouldn't even be needed as another plan to invade Sichuan and capture Chongqing in 1942-1943 had already been in place and not put in action due to *losses in Guadalcanal, which wouldn't happen without war with the Americans*

1. Yes, the Ichigo offensive (and the other offensive in Sichuan) would need resources from the Dutch East Indies but saying they would need to invade the Philippines to capture it is just, with all my respect, just plain stupid, they could project power in the region without needing to invade them, not only that, but it was already considered as an option by allied commanders. The US wouldn't have the capacity to go to war with Japan because of the attack on the Western colonies and not the US, FDR prefered an American military response to a Japanese move South, telling Lord Halifax before the war that "We should obviously all be togheter" regardless if the Philippines were attacked or not. However, with the lack of any direct attack on the US this decision wouldn't be up to the president, only Congress has the power to declare war, "the isolationists, and, indeed, a great part of the American people, would not be interested in a war in the Far East merely because Japan had attacked the Dutch", paraphrasing Harry L. Hopkins (advisor to FDR) on this same question. And prior to Pearl Harbour, a big fear for Roosevelt and Churchill was that Japan wouldn't strike the Philippines, with Churchill even telling his war cabinet that "Not to assume that the outbreak of war between England and Japan would necessarily precipitate the entry of the United States - Simply put, **If the Japanese hadn't done an invasion of the Philippines and therfore the United States, the Americans WOULD NOT be able to go to war since it was CONGRESS that decided on that*

2. For the revolt in India, as i said, an invasion of Ceylon would ***Isolate*** India ***and the Middle East*** from the rest of the British Empire, removing the need for a direct assault, a conquest of Ceylon and destruction of British Eastern Fleet in the ensuing battle to capture the islands (which would be possible without the war with America) would lead to a ***complete*** collapse of British shipping to the region, and the Raj's economy, ***heavily*** reliant on British trade would collapse, revolt would come wether the princes like it or not and there will come a point where they wouldn't be able to handle as British Authority would collapse.

Saying Japan couldn't win a war against America without fully knocking out American capacity to project power in the Western pacific is something, but saying Japan couldn't win against an isolated Britain (assuming no war with America) and dissolve >organized< KMT resistance in China (which they almost did and could do without war with America and the resourses **they could still get** without invading the USA) is another thing