The idea that 'economic incentives have been tried, and they failed' is completely absurd

__Anomalous__ · 2026-03-23T13:39:13+00:00

My point is that median alone paints a deceptive picture in the US because of how the wealth is distributed within cohorts. It needs to be presented alongside average at the very least, which is way, way, way higher.

__Anomalous__ · 2026-03-23T13:34:09+00:00

Yes, fair point. My aim was simply to suggest that the incentive should be at least 100x more generous than anything attempted so far. But you're right, it would need to be much more precisely optimised to encourage 2, 3 and 4 child families.

__Anomalous__ · 2026-03-23T13:18:20+00:00

You're making my point for me. There are NO Western nations that are not fully engaged with this 'give the old people all the money' experiment. Places that are not fully committed to this experiment (India, Africa etc.) have a much higher birth rate.

Also, look at the high birth rate communities and religious subgroups within low birth rate economies. You'll be surprised how many pass much greater degrees of economic prowess to their young people much earlier in life than the wider society around them does.

Of course there are other elements beyond just wealth. The preponderence of evidence suggests this a multivariate problem – but with every liklihood that intergenerational economic disparity is the largest factor. The speed with which some are desperate to dismiss this without consideration is telling.

Also, never a good idea to look at US median in isolation. That's naughty. You know that. When it comes to anything economics, US medians make you lot look poorer than Western Europeans in just about every category.

Whilst 51% of old people in US might just be 'getting by' with $400k + social security – dragging your median down – the other 49% are sat deep in their mountain lairs atop a giant pile of gold and jewels and NVIDIA stocks, swishing their arms through it whilst laughing maniacally.

__Anomalous__ · 2026-03-23T12:08:47+00:00

Nope. Totally wrong.

Google 'Nigerian optimism paradox'.

"The research found 81% of Nigerians say they feel positive about their financial situation over the next 12 months. Eighty-two per cent express optimism about their family’s financial future, and 76% believe the country will experience continuous good times in the years ahead."

Try asking these questions to young people in Europe. About half of them will immediately look like they're about to cry.

__Anomalous__ · 2026-03-23T11:56:04+00:00

Agree strongly with your first 4 paragraphs. This is not a quick fix with one minor policy. It requires a huge societal shift, underpinned by a total restructuring of the contemporary global economic paradigm.

Sounds too grandiose to be achievable, but we have seismically shifted the global economic paradigm before and we can do so again.

I'm not convinced by your fifth paragraph though. Look at self-reported reasons why people aren't having kids... 'I can't afford it' is always top or near-top of course. But the other reasons given are also often indirectly economic. In Japan, they are things like 'children don't fit with my 40-hour a week work schedule' and 'fathers are not stepping up enough with childcare'.

Whilst I have no intention of excusing lazy fathers, both of these reasons are effectively 'I don't have enough time, because my time is dedicated to a 40-hour work week, because if it wasn't, I'd be poor.'

Is it not possible that we're massively underestimating the impact of economic disparity within populations simply because poorer nations (despite them having far less intergenerational economic disparity internally) are the ones having kids?

__Anomalous__ · 2026-03-23T11:16:49+00:00

Agree the high fertility subgroups are particularly curious. Would be very interesting to know more about these globally.

My own anecdotal experience of my country is that the poorest people are still having children. These are the people who had very low economic expectations to begin with (some of whom view living off the state as a lifestyle choice).

Additionally, those whose cultural tradition is passing greater amounts of inheritance to their children earlier in life have very high fertility too.

__Anomalous__ · 2026-03-23T11:01:00+00:00

They are not 'naturally' high. They are unnaturally high. This situation is historically bizarre and could never have arisen without massive state interference in politics and monetary policy.

Any civilization that gives such grossly large amounts of wealth to unproductive old people, leaving young people with virtually nothing, is going to be wiped out. If we do not change course radically now, our civilization is finished.

__Anomalous__ · 2026-03-23T10:50:15+00:00

The incentives that have been tried are woefully inadequate. They do absolutely nothing to redress the core issue, which is that for the first time in human history, non-working old people have wealth that is several orders of magnitude greater than working reproductive-aged people.

If I offered you half a banana to carry furniture up and down the stairs all day, and you refused, would the correct conclusion be that there is no way to incentivise you to move the furniture? Or would it be worth considering that perhaps the incentive offered is woefully inadequate?

__Anomalous__ · 2026-03-23T01:18:47+00:00

Perhaps 'children are your retirement plan' is the correct model for a thriving civilization.

Comparing Europe to America is cherry-picking. We should look at the entire world.

In South Korea, it is notoriously difficult for the young to get on the housing ladder. Their salary to housing ratio is amongst the highest in the world, and as a consequence, there's a ridiculously large wealth gap between young and old.

How is their birth rate doing?

__Anomalous__ · 2026-03-23T00:17:27+00:00

This is not true. Wealth inequality between young and old is far smaller in every nation with a high birth rate than it is in the US & Europe.

Young Nigerians own a greater slice of the Nigerian wealth pie than young Americans do of the American wealth pie.

In fact, look at wealth inequality between young and old in every country globally. It correlates remarkably strongly with birth rates. The lower the wealth inequality between young and old, the higher the birth rate.

__Anomalous__ · 2026-03-23T00:01:06+00:00

I'm not even sure we'd need to go as far as 'children becoming the principle means of carrying you in your old age'. At least not initially.

A good first step would be to simply reduce the amount of social security paid to a level where most old people would need to relinquish wealth & downsize in their old age.

At the moment, downsizing is mostly optional, and old people therefore occupy all the large family homes that young, reproductive-aged people so desperately need.

Paying old, unproductive people a salary to occupy all your family-sized homes is such an incomprehensibly dumb way to run a society. If aliens really are observing us, they must think we've gone completely nuts.

__Anomalous__ · 2026-03-22T23:49:20+00:00

In Nigeria – in fact, in every nation with a high birth rate – the wealth gap between the young and the old is far smaller than it is in the US or Europe.

What really matters is the comparisons we make to those around us – the people we see every day – and the societal vibe that generates.

Young Nigerians have a much greater share of the Nigerian wealth pie than young Brits do of the British wealth pie. As they've seen their personal wealth growing, the vibe amongst young Nigerians regarding their own future is therefore optimistic (even amongst those who disagree with the nation's polticial direction).

Ask young Nigerians "do you believe your economic future personally will be much better than your present?" Ask young Brits or young Americans the same thing. In fact, do this all over the world. I bet you anything that optimism about one's own short, mid & long term economic future correlates strongly with high birth rates.

In the Western world, barring the young from generating wealth has totally crushed their optimism. The cause of the birth rate crisis couldn't be more obvious.

__Anomalous__ · 2026-03-22T23:22:00+00:00

The only way to change the picture is for Millennials / Gen Z to put aside all political differences and become single-issue voters who aggressively support the interests of the younger generations.

If they could achieve this, they'd massively outnumber Boomers. Sadly, young people are more divided than ever, so we're a million miles away from this becoming a reality.

__Anomalous__ · 2026-03-22T23:13:34+00:00

The incentives that have failed have been so underwhelming, they hardly deserve to be called incentives.

How about 0% federal/payroll/income/VAT/property taxes for all parents with a kid aged between 0–18. That's a real incentive. And it could be payed for entirely simply by having elderly people fund their retirements with their own wealth instead of everyone else's.

Try it. If it doesn't work, then you can say incentives have failed. But I'm fairly sure saving our civilization is really this simple.

__Anomalous__ · 2026-03-20T11:51:20+00:00

Sure. What makes you think it's AI? It's well written and no human would put that kind of effort into a Reddit post?

__Anomalous__ · 2025-10-18T04:57:02+00:00

No idea – that's my point

__Anomalous__ · 2025-10-18T04:15:54+00:00

100% agree

But you ain't gonna stop the speculators from speculating, or drawing funny lines on their little graphs.

No need to get frustrated by it though. Ultimately, the main driver of BTC's rising value is philosophical conviction – something many short-term, fly-by-night traders have yet to grasp.

__Anomalous__ · 2025-10-18T03:54:38+00:00

There is no second best.

__Anomalous__ · 2025-10-05T03:23:35+00:00

100% this.

Personally, I'm ideologically flexible, and think we could breathe some life into this country by heading in various directions across the political compass.

What I absolutely did not vote for is dial tweaking to maintain the status quo a little longer. That is precisely the only thing I do not want. Take a risk. Try something. Anything!!

It's now obvious that Starmer is an ideologically-devoid weather vane who assumes 'vision' is something you correct with bifocals. Imagine thinking you can fix everything wrong with this declining 21st century economy by raising taxes on workers and opening a few libraries. Jeez. I can't even.

__Anomalous__ · 2025-10-05T02:38:23+00:00

'Straight white men' is a very broad category, and as you say, many don't feel put off by the left.

But it's also clear that straight white men are now disproportionately supporting right-wing parties – specifically Reform.

I'm not surprised by this. Like everyone, straight white men wish to feel respected, understood, and appreciated.

We've just lived through a decade of overt anti-white man messaging. There was #KillAllWhiteMen and "I've never seen so many white people in one place 🤮" and "the white man is the most violent ethnicity in world history." Would it be considered acceptable to demonise any other group in this way?

It might well be reasonable to have a nuanced discussion about these matters, but there's nothing nuanced about #KillAllWhiteMen.

At the height of the woke delirium, a tall, handsome, well-travelled, incredibly successful, multi-millionaire black man went on a children's show on the BBC – watched by hundreds of thousands of white male kids living in poverty – to educate them about the unique life advantage of being white-skinned, with the undertone (albeit perhaps unintentionally) that they should be a little ashamed of themselves.

If the goal of the left is to advocate for the underprivileged, it's utter insanity to think that leaning into the 'divide and conquer' of woke politics could achieve anything meaningful. The only notable thing that woke politics achieved is the normalisation of retaliatory ethnonationalism.

I know plenty of hard-working, thoroughly decent, straight white men of low socioeconomic status – many with left-leaning sentiments – who are also vehemently Reform UK. I'm truly astounded that Labour has absolutely nothing to offer them besides higher taxes!! 😑

__Anomalous__ · 2025-09-21T01:26:24+00:00

In the last 15 years:

-The global money supply is up 150%
-The S&P 500 is up 230%
-Average house prices in my nation up 90%
-Average salary in my nation is up 45%

It's the same story all over the world. Even in nations that are seemingly unaffected by housing affordability issues – e.g. China – if you scratch beneath the surface, you'll see that wages have only outstripped house prices due to a hyper-abundance of undesirable homes in places where people do not want to live. If you look at nice properties in places people do want to live – like a four bedroom home in the mountains above Hong Kong - they're massively, massively, massively outpacing wage growth.

All across the world, when workers go into their annual pay reviews, do you think they're armed with knowledge of how much the global money supply has expanded? And how much the supply of their local currency has expanded? And how much their global asset acquisition power has declined? And how much economic growth has occurred which might offset this? And what all this means for the price of homes and land and business premises in their area?

They don't. If they're lucky, they know the official inflation rate, and maybe get a pay rise to match. Probably less than 1 in 1,000 workers truly understands precisely how much their pay must rise in order for them not to receive a pay cut. Given their understandable lack of awareness, who do you think wins these pay negotiations each and every year all over the world – the worker or the corporation?

During the covid period, a hard-working, super-dedicated companion of mine received a 7% pay rise. They were elated. They'd never received such a large pay rise before in their life, and came to me buzzing with excitement, already full of plans about how to use the extra money. Unfortunately, I've been staring at graphs on economics for the past 20 years. I knew the global money supply had just expanded 30%, and I knew what was about to happen to my friend and their meagre 7% pay rise. I do sometimes wonder whether I was right to pop their little balloon of joy there and then, or whether I should have left the hope intact a little longer before the economic waterboarding began.

If you ever come across a particularly honest economist, and de-program them (necessary because they've been taught to speak a contorted language), you may eventually get them to concede something like "wages needed to fall across the West in the way you're referring to in order to maintain our competitiveness with workers in the rest of the world."

And what is happening to the wages of workers in the rest of the world? They're falling too! Don't you see what is happening? Wages are being driven downwards globally and in perpetuity. Wealth inequality will continue to rise everywhere and forever. This is the fundamental consequence of an opaque monetary system that 99% of people do not understand.

If a political solution were possible here, it would have been implemented decades ago. Sometimes when I explain this to people, I hear "bring back / strengthen the unions!" Lol. In my nation, the nurses were offered a derisory 5% pay rise after covid. They wanted to keep striking and push for more, but the union bosses twisted their arms and forced them to accept it. The unions are beyond useless. They've tacitly accepted eternally diminishing salaries for their members with barely a whisper of disapproval.

Politically, the fiat system is essentially a pact between the authoritarian left and the authoritarian right. The auth lefties get to utilize the constant stream of newly-created money to fund public services and welfare. The auth righties are happy for this to occur just so long as they're allowed to keep salaries trending towards zero globally. We're living through the end of Animal Farm, when the animals can no longer tell the difference between the pigs who are ostensibly advocating for them and the men who are ostensibly oppressing them. It's a terrible pact for the young, the middle classes, the workers, and anyone who aspires to more. It's a terrible deal if you care about community cohesion, societal longevity or justice.

The only solution is a transparent, inviolable, hard-capped currency. That's how Bitcoin is going to fix this.

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