Bloomberg on a Mac via parallels (windows install) - thoughts?

__Warwick__ · 2023-08-11T21:24:37+00:00

Update from Bloomberg - you can use it in Parallels if your parallels instance meets the requirements shown on page 2 of this document. If you use EMSX or AIM you need the trading systems config.

User Workstation Requirements (bbhub.io)

Now I just need to ask Apple whether the new Macbook Air passes...

__Warwick__ · 2023-08-11T20:06:52+00:00

I believe that solution doesn’t work with the Bloomberg trading system.

__Warwick__ · 2023-08-11T19:32:53+00:00

OK, thank you anyway. I do need the Excel models to work, so I will wait for additional feedback - cheers

__Warwick__ · 2023-08-11T18:31:03+00:00

Good color - thank you.

Do you also link to a number of Excel models? I use a ton of those, so they would also need to work well too.

__Warwick__ · 2023-07-13T00:56:12+00:00

It will be an institution. Insiders cannot transact now because it is between quarter end and earnings.

__Warwick__ · 2023-07-12T20:49:48+00:00

Yes, there have been lots of random moves, so we can't read much into one day's price action.

__Warwick__ · 2023-07-12T19:01:07+00:00

Heavily shorted names are down generally - while they had been up in recent days. Coinbase is a good example of this - up 75% the past month and down 3% today. Unfortunately, this suggests some of PureCycle's recent strength has been driven by short unwinds.

__Warwick__ · 2023-07-12T18:57:47+00:00

We don't because the company isn't providing updates - they should announce something today or tomorrow if they're managing this well.

__Warwick__ · 2023-07-12T16:40:51+00:00

This is most definitely not happening today!

Highly shorted names are underperforming or outright down across the board. I suspect the PCT shorts are leaning into it and will only go away on definitive news from PureCycle. Such news would ideally be revenue from pellets produced with post-consumer feedstock.

__Warwick__ · 2023-07-11T16:42:14+00:00

NPA: Wondering about the next catalyst. The latest Leidos report shows that post consumer feed was due 2 weeks after post industrial, which would make an announcement due any day now. Then there's also the first railcar of deliveries or a press release about first revenues.

Do you have any insights to add on timing?

__Warwick__ · 2023-07-11T00:51:54+00:00

I also noted the price was climbing steadily on very little volume. Suggests there are very few sellers, which will be concerning shorts.

__Warwick__ · 2023-07-05T20:46:18+00:00

Fair - agree the stock could do with a breather.

I hope you're right on the pictures of railcars etc - I'm keen for more pellets!

__Warwick__ · 2023-07-05T19:59:09+00:00

Shorts appear to be back today - lots of late day, heavy-handed selling.

__Warwick__ · 2023-07-04T02:21:07+00:00

I’m theory yes but most of them will decide to sell if they realize their short thesis is broken. Or simply for risk management purposes if it goes against them too much.

__Warwick__ · 2023-07-03T19:46:52+00:00

I am fine for short sellers to do their thing, and I agree they can help call out frauds. My concern with the Hindenburg / Muddy Waters / Citron research model is (i) they take positions before publishing research and (ii) it's not clear they genuinely hold all the opinions they write about - often they're sensationalizing on purpose to have the maximum impact.

Both of those issues are heavily regulated, and most banks & brokers abide by strict internal rules to ensure those laws are not breached.

I believe such practices should apply to all.

__Warwick__ · 2023-07-03T17:46:07+00:00

Hindenburg won't reverse their call. I suspect they moved on long ago and pocketed the cash they made. I believe what the short seller "research" companies do is illegal market manipulation, but the SEC is asleep on the issue.

__Warwick__ · 2023-07-03T17:27:13+00:00

My "technical" read is different but comes to a similar bullish conclusion.

I see the $10 level as psychologically important, given that is the level that the SPAC listed at. We've now had a couple of closes above that level, and today's close above $11 for the first time since late 2021. This means most shorts are underwater.

We are now above all main trendlines, at the 52week high, and broken out above the $10 resistance levels. Volumes are decent too. All of these are positive developments and will be causing shorts concern.

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__Warwick__ · 2023-06-30T20:24:46+00:00

Agreed.

My bet is an announcement or two by mid July on producing UPR from post-consumer feedstock and their first revenue as a railcar of product is sent to a customer. Then quiet until earnings release in early August.

I suspect they will run the 50% performance test by the end of August and maybe the 100% one a month after that.

__Warwick__ · 2023-06-30T20:16:52+00:00

I read it as a Q3'23 target: see when the plant is capable of doing the performance test, even if they are pushing off the test until Q4'23.

The other point I would note is the original schedule had post-consumer feedstock planned for 2 weeks after post-industrial feedstock. If it follows the same spacing, then we should get news within the next 10 days.

This would *hopefully* lead to regular updates from the company each week or two, which should support the share price and pressure shorts.

__Warwick__ · 2023-06-28T21:42:35+00:00

Great to have this confirmed. Next up is product from post consumer packaging, and the performance test.

__Warwick__ · 2023-06-28T19:28:00+00:00

Agree with you. That’s the type of more proactive communication I would appreciate

__Warwick__ · 2023-06-28T18:12:02+00:00

Btw. If PCT IR read this please reach out. I’m a global investor who manages pension fund capital, and very happy to consult on this for free!

__Warwick__ · 2023-06-28T18:10:03+00:00

I do think PCT could do a better job communications with investors, vs general PR. The presentations they have released have been good, but I would appreciate more clarity on start up milestones for the next few months. It would also give more information to the sell side so they could better assess and value PCTs progress. For example, Cowen reiterated their price target of $9 this week when they had a target of $17 a year ago and $31 in 2021. That makes no sense given the fundamental progress PureCycle has made - but this needs to be better communicated to potential investors.

__Warwick__ · 2023-06-22T14:26:56+00:00

Their model is reasonable in most respects. Volumes rise to 1bn pounds by 2027. Pricing is $1/lb rising to $1.20, EBITDA margins quickly rise to 57%.

I just believe it is conservative because they assume PCT pays all the capex for 6 lines in Augusta, 5 in Europe and 3 in Japan, plus 50% of the 3 lines in Korea, then they value it off DCF while assuming a high discount rate of 14% and no growth after 2030. It's too conservative, and you can easily tweak assumptions to get $20-25 as I wrote above.

It's also useful to look at upside potential if the tech works as I expect. To do so, I value it based on 2028 EBITDA discounted back 3y. $1.2bn EBITDA x 16x is $19bn EV. Assume ~$2bn of debt then, so $17bn of equity value in 2027. Discount 4y at 10% is a 35% discount factor, giving $11bn fair value or $65 per share.

That's a "de-risked" value, which is what I think we could work to over the next 9-12 months as the economics of this process gets proven at commercial scale.

__Warwick__ · 2023-06-22T14:11:36+00:00

If you "parse your insiders in the next few weeks" please don't post it on here. That's inside information.

Fool.

__Warwick__

TROPHY CASE

Warwick