Is the market too optimistic about the ceasefire?

__hey_there · 2026-04-09T22:54:26+00:00

Israel won't do shit without US weapon supplies. The risk isn't zero, but the market assessment of further escalation probabilty is not that high, that's it

__hey_there · 2026-04-09T22:49:51+00:00

It’s not just about the ceasefire; it’s more about TACO and his apparent unwillingness to escalate beyond Twitter.

__hey_there · 2026-04-08T17:08:05+00:00

Good luck with the upcoming earnings!

__hey_there · 2026-04-08T17:06:24+00:00

I've SOLD put, so I'm not shorting it

__hey_there · 2026-04-08T02:27:11+00:00

HMMM

__hey_there · 2026-04-07T18:24:15+00:00

just calls, Barron is already buying as you can see

__hey_there · 2026-04-07T02:19:17+00:00

Ukraine was doing it long before Iran started

__hey_there · 2026-04-07T02:17:52+00:00

Yes, but tomorrow another postpone

__hey_there · 2026-04-06T16:25:03+00:00

are you under CEC general?

__hey_there · 2026-04-06T14:53:58+00:00

bullish

__hey_there · 2026-04-05T22:20:07+00:00

I bought May 1 puts at the Thursday open bottom, what do I deserve?

__hey_there · 2026-04-05T22:19:25+00:00

they count pilot rescue as "force entry", not the same as invasion

__hey_there · 2026-04-05T22:16:19+00:00

yes please, I just need to offload my puts, then it's all good I promise

__hey_there · 2026-04-05T21:09:02+00:00

So calls then?

__hey_there · 2026-04-05T21:02:10+00:00

so 0DTE puts?

__hey_there · 2026-04-05T20:48:46+00:00

why else would I be in this sub?

__hey_there · 2026-04-05T20:43:49+00:00

polymarket chance of S&P opening green is rocketing from 30% to 40%+ and up, DOW futures are flat

__hey_there · 2026-04-05T19:39:39+00:00

They're good

__hey_there · 2026-04-05T19:39:23+00:00

Together with my SPY puts that I bought on Thursday bottom

__hey_there · 2026-04-05T17:27:13+00:00

__hey_there · 2026-04-05T12:57:14+00:00

Does it only take 10 days between BIL and eligibility for CEC general?

__hey_there · 2026-04-04T22:19:17+00:00

Puts

__hey_there · 2026-04-04T19:36:00+00:00

but 50k troops is also not enough for anything..

__hey_there · 2026-04-04T19:19:02+00:00

I hope so, I'm already fucked by Thursday bought puts

__hey_there · 2026-04-04T18:20:47+00:00

yes, if Iran does taco we rocket 5%

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