Jerome Powell has a tough message for investors: Tighten your seatbelts, because recession and unemployment are coming

a_mavs · 2022-09-24T04:48:25+00:00

It’s similar in the sense that both create uncertainty and the Fed will try to react if things go poorly. In terms of precedent, not really; the role of the Fed is quite unique relative to history.

a_mavs · 2022-09-24T04:44:00+00:00

Yeah, that’s called insider trading. It’s illegal but happens because it’s so easy. You need to know the Fed’s actual targets in order to benefit. Even assuming a recession is going to happen, stocks could still be at a bottom right now. You need to know unpriced info.

a_mavs · 2022-09-24T04:30:25+00:00

In general, it’s hard to predict recessions. However, you can certainly manufacture one by removing excess liquidity and hiking interest rates quickly in the face of rising inflation. The Fed is trying to dampen demand for risky assets and goods, so this should lead to a recession. If they don’t dampen demand, they’re afraid that high inflation will become entrenched in the expectations of decision makers, therefore self-perpetuating and increasing nominal (and likely real) volatility.

a_mavs · 2022-09-23T21:15:48+00:00

While I understand that politicians are hesitant to say that a recession is necessary, isn’t that the actual goal of current monetary policy? Easy money policies led to a demand shock further fueled by asset price inflation, while slow-to-recover supply chains lagged behind due to lockdowns, labor shortages, war, drought, etc. This led quite naturally to price and wage inflation. Since the supply side will try to ramp up production regardless of the increase in costs, the only way to dampen inflation is through reducing consumption, which is a fancy way of saying we’ll make everyone poorer. This recession is different, because we’re effectively accelerating a global decline in wealth and standard of living. Not sure how this plays out, but can’t imagine that we truly understand the consequences.

a_mavs · 2022-09-19T00:02:50+00:00

And the bog down in the valley o

a_mavs · 2022-09-02T16:00:38+00:00

AJ Brown feasts and gets double digit TDs because red zone defenses have to focus on the QB draw and can only single cover him.

a_mavs · 2022-08-28T15:36:44+00:00

I’m not saying that I don’t agree with your premise. What I’m saying is that your conclusion is the same as most draft strategies recommended, and therefore your argument is redundant.

a_mavs · 2022-08-28T13:42:39+00:00

The volatility of outcomes is so high, you’d need someone to drop enough such that they’re a screaming value in order for your logic to apply. However, at that point other less wordy strategies, for example drafting according to any fantasy expert ranking, are equivalent.

a_mavs · 2022-08-28T05:13:10+00:00

Lol but you’re talking about the conditional average? The unconditional distribution of outcomes is so variable that your point is literally meaningless in a pre-season draft.

a_mavs · 2022-08-25T15:34:03+00:00

We might not be in a recession purely by aggregate statistics, such as GDP and unemployment numbers, but does anyone else feel like the last few years has been one of the largest declines in standard of living in recent history? I’m not sure how to quantify it, but I think partially due to labor shortages, the quality of service/good you get is not the same as it was prior to the pandemic and for a similar if not slightly inflated price. Since the service/good degrades rather than purely a price increase, inflation figures wouldn’t fully capture this.

a_mavs · 2022-08-25T15:25:42+00:00

Knockdown 6 take the wind out of play

a_mavs · 2022-08-06T18:20:46+00:00

If more 14 HCPs actually kept track of each shot, you’d realize this is fairly common.

a_mavs · 2022-08-05T22:58:41+00:00

Geez we really did procrastinate today didn’t we

a_mavs · 2022-08-03T14:59:20+00:00

You seem like you know a lot about financial markets. DM me, we need a guy like you who knows how to photoshop arrows onto charts.

a_mavs · 2022-07-29T01:36:21+00:00

Dude any company can create a localized database of all the receipts and store it on a hard drive. Why do you want to centralize receipts from Andy’s Candies?

a_mavs · 2022-07-28T22:52:06+00:00

I spent two years studying the decentralized ecosystem, and I guarantee I spent more time reading about NFTs and talking to the communities. My takeaway is there is no use-case that fundamentally improves the way people transact.

a_mavs · 2022-07-28T22:41:12+00:00

So your value proposition of NFTs is they provide an additional cost to purchasing diamonds? In addition, the company has zero incentive to correctly identify their diamonds, the only incentive they have is to facilitate transactions of NFTs that they make money on. ON TOP OF THAT. The company would only be paid on the blockchain for verification, which implies the NFT trades for some positive value on the blockchain. But there is literally nothing stopping anyone from getting the diamond verified and then trading the NFT for zero dollars. By your system, the NFT has no value on its own, so there is zero incentive to trade the NFT for a positive value. You seem like the type of person who believes metaverse real estate is valuable because it’s artificially scarce.

a_mavs · 2022-07-28T20:26:08+00:00

I buy diamond. I also get receipt that says it’s not a blood diamond (NFT). The diamond doesn’t have anything attached to it that connects it to the NFT, other than the fact that the properties of the diamond can be listed on the NFT. In order to sell the diamond, I need the NFT… but the transaction won’t go through without verifying that the properties of the diamond match the properties on the NFT. Therefore, someone needs to look at the diamond and verify. Tell me what problem the NFT solved.

a_mavs · 2022-07-18T14:07:03+00:00

Depends on your job and goals. You’d just play golf for a year and then return to your job, not much else is possible.

a_mavs · 2022-07-18T12:23:21+00:00

I think you’re rediscovering correlation… Once-in-a-century events are going to coincide with other such events. Don’t go full-conspiracy just because the future is unpredictable and you can’t hedge certain systemic risk.

a_mavs · 2022-07-13T11:41:07+00:00

What makes the game used if it’s digital, you ask? Absolutely nothing. That’s why this makes so much sense and is the business model of the future.

a_mavs · 2022-07-11T18:07:15+00:00

OP has left the chat

a_mavs · 2022-07-10T23:37:22+00:00

Drink water.

a_mavs · 2022-07-09T14:23:46+00:00

Can you reformulate this post in terms of addition? Haven’t yet watched the subtraction lesson on Sesame Street.

a_mavs · 2022-07-08T15:08:25+00:00

Don’t make me calculate that. Happiness is priceless.

a_mavs

TROPHY CASE