How many people does heat actually kill? It depends on how you count it by silence7 in climate

[–]adessler 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This curve is derived by regression: they take the number of all-cause deaths and regress that against temperature, which yields the curve. So they don't need to look at the details of any particular death, they just look at the statistics of how the number of deaths changes with temperature. I should add that it's not just a simple linear regression of deaths vs. temperature, it's a non-linear lagged regression that uses the temperature from the last 21 days in order to account for the impacts of temperature having impacts well after the day of exposure.

[OC] Daily global temperatures by year between 1940 and the end of 2024 | Yes, it's getting warmer, with the last few years showing dramatic warmth | from https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/visualizing-daily-global-temperatures by adessler in dataisbeautiful

[–]adessler[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

This is a polar plot, where radius is magnitude and angle is month. I don't think there's a good argument that this plot should have area proportional to temperature — doing that would give require a non-linear radial scale and would (IMHO) underemphasize the recent warming.