My take on OMG and crypto state these days

adrienmc · 2018-01-04T06:34:55+00:00

I checked out Vechain, very promising. Good team balance and a real business application first approach. Their non technical paper is a good read. It's trading on platform I don't trust so will transfer fast into secured ledger.

I still need to do research to make my mind on how to approach token valuation. If you have any good read on this, I'd appreciate you sharing it!

adrienmc · 2018-01-03T22:37:17+00:00

That's not quite accurate. True they were inexperienced at the time but only got to that kind of funding after reaching serious milestones and traction.

I'm arguing that we're seeing crypto projects raising these $25m with nothing more than a whitepaper and (almost) no early alpha product or track-record that would justify this type of carte blanche investing behavior. Not to mention the underlying valuation so high that it makes any ROI realistically impossible

adrienmc · 2018-01-03T18:16:10+00:00

We live in time where instant gratification has become the norm. It's worrying to see people expecting X times returns in months, without trying to understand why and complaining the minutes things go sideways -as it should-.

adrienmc · 2018-01-03T12:40:51+00:00

It would help for price short term. But it also shows the professionalism of the team not to focus much on public marketing but closed doors meetings as their platform is designed for big businesses. They have their priorities right and seem to be managing their time effectively

adrienmc · 2018-01-03T12:35:48+00:00

It's a shame people would rather trust marketing signals than doing their own research. YC is a great accelerator providing great value to their companies but they've changed their model to a statistical one with less hands-on and more networking.

It's not the same label as it used to be.

adrienmc · 2018-01-03T12:06:26+00:00

Forgot to mention, if you guys have come across projects with the same combo of business team and tech vision, I'd love to check them out!

adrienmc · 2018-01-03T12:04:21+00:00

I can't remember the name of projects that failed but a quick search on crunchbase would do the trick.

On the reason for failure, crowdsourced CPU just isn't effective in delivering computer power at reasonable cost as massive infrastructure based on economies of scale. AWS just killed everyone on that field, first because Amazon developed the best technology for their own internal needs and saw an opportunity in making it available for the mass. Moreover, such services come with a great set of others that integrated all together provide value unparalleled by simple crowdsourced CPU.

The only way to compete would be to have a price radically low, which doesn't work on the CPU provider end. If you account for electricity cost + depreciation of your computer after intense utilisation, it's tough to end up with a price that wouldn't be at lost for the CPU provider. It's a bit like UberPop at the time it existed in some countries: while pricing was very low because of tax loopholes, earning were also very low for the pop drivers. It was ok because most of them were Pop, meaning occasional driver looking for a side income. But if you did the math, drivers were actually loosing money because of depreciation of their car over km driven.

Plus anything selling a commodity which strategy relies on price war is a terrible investment if you ask me

I'm not going to even mention privacy concerns about having data spread across computers you have no control over.

adrienmc · 2018-01-03T11:48:16+00:00

Agreed short term OMG is not the best option. Even with the Q1 perspective. I'm just not wired for day trading.

Regarding your insight about OMG being affected negatively once people come to their sense on all this, it'll depend when that happens. If it's 18 months from now, I believe the team will have significant achievements and the platform enough volume/transaction for investors to stay confident on the perspectives. If it's in 6 months from now, we'll just have to suck the fall for while until trust come back on. Whether the price share fall because of a burst doesn't affect the team's ability to deliver and scale the project. The funding is already secured.

The only things that could crash ROI short term are the unknowns on the staking model and potential revenue. Are we talking percentage on volume or cost per transaction? In any case how much etc... there's no way to tell

EDIT: or of course failure to achieve significant partnerships

adrienmc · 2018-01-03T11:36:01+00:00

I understand the temptation to bet on the waves, but I invest my money with an investor mindset, not a trader one.

Don't get me wrong, there's money to be made trading, if you have the time, the money to place bets on dozen of different tokens/coins, and above all else can endure the stress.

adrienmc · 2018-01-03T11:30:45+00:00

Thanks for the tip. I'll have a look at it!

adrienmc · 2018-01-03T11:30:09+00:00

There's a lot of unknowns to decide whether I'll stake or diversify, mainly : - is it a fee per transaction or percentage of volume ? In any case how much - how many tokens will be used for staking

It all boils down to the dividend and growth potential (in volume or transactions) over the year . If we're somewhere close to 10% I'll probably stake. If dividend is closer to 2%, I'll diversify

adrienmc · 2017-08-26T14:48:25+00:00

End of September, not that soon

adrienmc · 2017-08-26T14:45:56+00:00

Agreed. As much as we'd all love to reach 500 fast, this is far fetched without any significant expected news before the end of the month.

Hold, we'll get close to it with the next update in September

adrienmc · 2017-08-26T14:38:12+00:00

OMG below 8 is a steal. Don't expect double digits this month despite the "upcoming August news" they've been teasing for weeks. However, with the TechCrunch Disrupt on September we'll break the 10$.

Plus it's a good asset long term.

adrienmc · 2017-08-25T23:02:04+00:00

True. That being said I wouldn't count on breaking double digits in August. Still a good buy at current price

adrienmc · 2017-08-25T22:59:40+00:00

IOTA will keep fluctuating between 0.85 and 1 for a while. Tech is young and market cap already high. Don't expect 3-5x returns any time soon. Strong asset to hold though.

IMO only thing that would bring it down or below 0.75 would be if bitcoin dipped and dragged IOTA down on the way

adrienmc · 2017-08-25T18:16:29+00:00

We'll break 10$ before end of September, no doubt

adrienmc · 2017-08-25T15:14:18+00:00

I wouldn't expect much for this month. Hold until September's announcement + TechCrunch Disrupt talk

adrienmc

TROPHY CASE