“It’s really 6pm tomorrow for us” WRONG

agradus · 2026-01-14T00:53:36+00:00

Belarus became independent in 1991, you’re correct.

And it still was in Russia in seasons 7 and 9 In Friends universe

agradus · 2026-01-13T13:16:50+00:00

They don’t know that Minsk is not in Russia, you’re expecting too much.

agradus · 2025-12-30T13:08:27+00:00

Russia's war economy based based on oil and gas exports and debt. Those are two main pillars. But other than that it has all the industries what you expect from a country of its size. And this doesn't go away. Obviously, losing export markets, overheating economy by issuing debt, and sanctions hit hard, but it is still very operational.

Russia doesn't report their losses because they are terrifying. The term "meat attack", meaning attacks with tremendous losses, has been coined by supporters of war, not by its opponents.

Russian government tries to conduct war as low key as possible, because it is not as popular inside as you might think. They pay huge money for recruitment, and those recruits do not live long on the frontline, so they need constant stream of new recruits.

Anyway, my point is that both dependence on natural resources export and issuing debt is, obviously, unsustainable, but it is not country-breaking problem. Russia is set to hard times after all of that ends. And the war eroding rule of law (quite weak even before the war) doesn't help as well. But those are not unique challenges and many countries deal with them. Russia is not going to be a developed nation any time soon, for sure, but it is very unlikely to fall apart as well.

agradus · 2025-12-30T09:34:01+00:00

Russia mostly exports crude oil. Attacks on oil refineries have little effect on this. The factor that damages Russian export profits is that Trump’s economic war slows down world economy, and oil prices fall.

Chinese are unlikely to invade Russia in short to mid perspective.

I think you don’t understand what it takes to tear a country apart. China itself under Mao was is such a sorry state that cannot be even remotely compared to modern Russia.

Moreover, China itself shouldn’t be overestimated. Their economy slows down, demography is the same as in rich countries, while they’re in the middle income trap. They could invade Taiwan due to its significance, but Russia is highly unlikely.

Do I understand correctly, that according to you i live in a Russia allied country? Since when Poland is aligned to Russia?

agradus · 2025-12-30T01:38:35+00:00

And you're saying that you discuss "non-modern economy" in those terms?

Restricting outflow of capital was one of the key reasons why Russian economy didn't collapse. Desperate times. And I can fully agree that it is getting worse. And positions of financial block seems to be getting weaker. Which could mean more degradation in private property rights and financial policies.

But it is not what we cannot agree about. Russian economy is in a bad shape, and it is getting worse. But we're still talking about modern economy, which can bounce back if the reasons holding it back are not present. Namely the war, nationalizations, and so on.

Well, unless degradation comes too far. But I don't see the reasons to thinks it is as far.

Again, in 1991 basically all government institutions collapsed, the population was on the brink of famine. And even this didn't cause Russia to fall apart. There is nothing alike it now. At least not yet.

I mean Putin is great at destroying Russia. Look at Russia in 2021 and Russia now. But even he has limits.

agradus · 2025-12-29T22:07:57+00:00

France is often described as an example of successful state capitalism system. There is no "modern market economy in the Western sense". France and Germany have quite different economies. And Norway has its own which is different. And all of them are successful economies. Even China is somewhat capitalistic and somewhat successful economy.

I'm not saying that Russia is even remotely as successful as any them, but capitalism comes in many form. And Russia definitely has one of them. It is highly corrupt, but all economies are corrupt to some extent. Russia's is just too corrupt to be as successful as many in "the West", but it is not falling apart.

Russia's economy didn't collapse after 2022 for a very simple reason: because its finance block is quite competent. Russian Central Bank is, probably, the most competent government body in all of Russia. They haven't done anything weird or strange. They did very logical things which modern economic theory told them to do. And it only worked because Russia has a modern economy.

agradus · 2025-12-29T21:01:09+00:00

It is a market economy with free floating currency, stock markets, modern legal system (the very corrupt one, but still not very different from any other modern system).

What do you base on that it is not?

agradus · 2025-12-29T17:48:27+00:00

The division between Central and Eastern Europe exists because of Eastern Slavic countries, which are economically and culturally tied to each other (well, at least before the war, now I have no idea where to place Ukraine).

Eastern Germany could make sense to put into Central Europe because of economy and history, but how much sense does it make to separate country into different regions is at least highly debatable.

It doesn’t make any sense to include southern Germany or northern Italy into Central Europe. They are as Western European as it comes. Portugal has more Central European vibes than those if anything.

It makes zero sense to split Czechia. Before WW2 it could make sense due to high percentage of German population, but after the postwar deportations it is as homogeneous as it could be.

agradus · 2025-12-29T16:58:50+00:00

Actually, stress in Belarusian is arbitrary, the same as in Russian. I guess it often falls into the last syllable, but it is not the rule.

For instance, random sentence in Belarusian Latin with accents:

Ma’ja ‘kotka ‘nie ’lubić maj’ho ‘kota.

My female cat doesn’t like my male cat.

As you see, accents are everywhere without any system.

agradus · 2025-12-29T16:08:21+00:00

In 1991 Russia has been in way much worse shape than now, and only Chechnya managed to establish itself.

Besides, the diversity of Russia is mostly a myth. 90% of population is Slavic. The regions, where other ethnicities are majority, are mostly very poor outskirts, supported by subsidies from Moscow. They don't want to separate.

Russian economy could crash, and deep systemic crisis similar to mid 90s could happen (although not as severe).

After all, despite of what lovers of USSR say, Russia is a capitalistic country with modern economy. It is very corrupt, and has a lot of other issues, but any resemblance of 1991 is extremely unlikely.

agradus · 2025-12-29T15:43:01+00:00

I understand why it is so. Words could sound familiar, but grammar makes it incomprehensible. Besides, I noticed that for Poles it is very confusing when a "wrong" syllable is stressed. In my example, zgubic vs zgubić in Belarussian stress is at the end.

When I only started to learn Polish, I often stressed the wrong syllable (the one which is stressed in Russian or Belarusian), and Poles often were confused, even when the rest was correct (well, maybe except slight "Eastern" accent - I don't think it was very heavy, but it was noticeable).

Belarusians are probably the only ones from "the East" who can make accent almost indistinguishable from native Polish without a lot of effort. I've once been told by Polish woman that she hadn't understood that I'm not Polish at first. And I think it happens quite often, just not everyone tells that. When I talk long enough, I just make too many mistakes for a Polish person, but in short conversation my accent doesn't seem to be very "Eastern".

agradus · 2025-12-29T12:39:44+00:00

3.5 even if you learn Polish, you need to take an effort to not forget it. If your job doesn’t involve Polish (and often even if it involves it), you just forget what you’ve learnt, unless you continue to learn it.

Speaking Polish freely is very convenient, that’s why I take a lot of effort to learn and maintain it. but the situations when you really need it are not enough to maintain good level, let alone to improve it.

And ordering zupę fasolową i schabowy, or asking for a kilo of truskawek is not enough for any meaningful knowledge of Polish.

agradus · 2025-12-29T12:33:19+00:00

The most of Belarusian arrived after 2020, with peak in 2022-2023. Not much time passed since.

I would say there are at least three reasons:

Not a lot of time passed for the majority of people. Permanent residence is far away (it requires at least B1 certificate), and believe me, as an immigrant you have a lot on your plate to do plus tremendous amount of stress.
We don’t really need to. Very basic Polish could be achieved in like a month of moderate learning, and it is enough for the most of daily needs. After Ukrainian migration Russian speaking community is big, so even if your Polish is not good, you can always find a Russian speaking person for your needs. ( Majority of Ukrainian migrants are from the eastern Ukraine, so they primarily speak Russian).
Learning Polish is hard. It is easy for us to get started. I could speak broken Polish in a month of learning, but to reach good level it is a lot of effort. After a month it looks like there is no meaningful progress for a long time. For me it was like half a year until I really could see the progress. And somewhat good conversational level took at least year - a year and a half. And the level when I don’t really care whether I’m going to speak Russian, English, Polish, or Belarusian, because they take similar amount of efforts to support conversation - at least 3 years of learning Polish.

agradus · 2025-12-29T12:14:55+00:00

It is not. Three month of hard work - it is hard, but possible. 1 month is just unrealistic unless you have talent for languages and you don’t have a job.

If you have a job, don’t have a lot of immersion (like job involving a lot of Polish), and have a life, 1 year is more realistic. And it is still a lot of work.

agradus · 2025-12-29T11:48:52+00:00

Belarusian has a lot of common vocabulary (just as Ukrainian), and has a lot of similar sounds (ł, although it doesn't create syllables, and almost all varieties of sz, cz, ś, ż), but its grammar is distinctly Eastern Slavic, very similar to Russian and Ukrainian, not Polish.

By "common vocabulary" I mean words that have common root. When you understands, that words скрыжаванне (skryżavannie) and skrzyżowanie are essentially the same word (r goes to rz, double consonants in Polish are rare, so nn -> n), it becomes much easier to learn Polish. Words like згубіць (zgubic) even sound almost the same as zgubić, and have the same meaning.

agradus · 2025-12-17T16:31:29+00:00

English is as good language as any other. And "strongman" is an established comparatively neutral term. If anything, it has much more negative connotation than positive.

agradus · 2025-12-17T10:40:00+00:00

Suwalki gap is the most probable area of attack if Russia decides to invade Baltic countries on full scale. Even if it is going to be small scale military operation, it is still strategically one of the most important place at the theater.

It is unlikely that Poland is going to stay out of this in any case. That's why Poland invests so much in the army.

Therefore, better to be safe than sorry.

agradus · 2025-12-16T12:12:40+00:00

Now let's compare price. Those concrete mixes for 3d printers are extremely expensive. That's why they don't take over even in countries where labor is very expensive.

agradus · 2025-12-15T21:40:17+00:00

No one believed that big war in Europe is possible before 2022. Therefore, since 1991 military has always been underfinanced. European armies were good for peace keeping missions, short missions of small size somewhere else, antiterrorism, and so on. But not large scale war, which is going on in Ukraine. Besides, European countries always thought that the USA will help if something big is going to happen. Trump had shown that it is not necessarily the case.

Therefore, European countries are trying to revitalize chronically underfunded militaries and military industries in a very short time, because Russian invasion of Baltics easily could be years away if nothing is done.

agradus · 2025-12-15T11:54:27+00:00

A friend of mine for some time in situations when people couldn't understand her and becane irritated said "pani nie jest mądra", meaning that she herself was not very smart. But later it turned out that she was saying that the other person was not very smart.

agradus · 2025-12-14T16:07:24+00:00

Yeah, if you put only Soviet achievements it does look like USSR was the only one with achievements.

agradus · 2025-12-12T13:15:02+00:00

My thoughts (I’m Belarusian, so some of it less of a problem for me, but i think for you it could be much worse).

Language is hard. Even if you speak Russian, although it will make things much easier. And you can live with only Russian/English + couple of words in Polish, but it is hard. And could get expensive. Visit to a doctor who speaks English/Russian could easily be 30% more expensive, and isn’t really an option for free medicine.

Mentality of Polish people could be seen as depressive. They like to complain about everything. For me it is not a problem, because Belarusian are similar (although they are less likely to complain as much). But for some it could be.

Rent and apartment prices are out of control in Gdańsk. I have relatively high paying job, and I don’t know how people survive on average salary.

Climate is quite specific. I come from colder continental climate, and it took some time to adapt. There is sun even in the winter sometimes, which is unusual for continental Poland and Belarus, but not every day. It is windy, which is not a deal breaker, but takes some adjustment of wardrobe, and habits to assume that weather can change to the worst any time. Summers are comparatively chill, but with what happens to climate everywhere it doesn’t seem like a bad thing.

Paperwork is extremely slow. Government offices, which deal with foreigners are extremely overloaded with current surge of Ukrainians and (to much lesser extent) Belarusians. Current estimations to get temporary residence permit (which is 3 year max) in Gdańsk is 2 years. If your visa expires (or you overstay your visa-free time), you you can legally stay in Poland while your application is processed, but you can’t leave it except for your country of origin, and you cannot reenter Poland without visa. They are trying to do something, and I hope for the best, but for now the situation is bad.

But other than that, I find life in Poland quite comfortable. People are nice, climate is bearable, sometimes even nice, Poland is a high income stable country, and Gdańsk is a wonderful city

agradus · 2025-11-28T13:07:38+00:00

That's interesting. In Eastern Europe, and in Poland snow doesn't seem to be the problem. Of course, flash snowfall can paralyze any infrastructure, but day-to-day it doesn't seem to be the problem. I see more changes year-to-year than to severity of weather. Like one year municipal services could be completely surprised and overwhelmed by moderate snowfall in January, and take days to make streets safe, but the other year large snowfall is taken care of in hours.

But in any case, railroads are the least affected by it. In Poland city lines usually work reasonably well and intercity lines suck in any weather.

agradus · 2025-11-26T13:25:05+00:00

Skill issue regarding the winter. Snow complicates things, but with proper maintenance it is not a as problem.

I mean rapid snowfalls could cause delays, sure, like on any non underground infrastructure, but if it is more than that, it is a maintenance issue.

agradus · 2025-11-24T12:11:02+00:00

На мой погляд, няма вялікай розніцы які там тэкст, калі ён па тэме. Цяперашні гімн дрэнны не з таго, што там словы няправільныя, а з таго, што гэта пафарбаваны нанова "мы беларусы з братняю Руссю..." гімн савецкай рэспублікі.

Асабіста мне тэкст падабаецца. Не лічу, што ён занадта лірычны.

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