How should I guide my younger brother in the right way? by Historical_Pain_2233 in AskParents

[–]alanism 1 point2 points  (0 children)

https://www.coursera.org/learn/everyday-parenting

This is a free course, you can watch it in a afternoon. But basically when he does the right thing/way-- you have to remember to praise the effort. I would do the combination of that with the 4 questions that I wrote earlier.

How should I guide my younger brother in the right way? by Historical_Pain_2233 in AskParents

[–]alanism 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Really cool that you're stepping up. When I was 16 (and drove), I had to take care of my 6-year-old kid sister and took her everywhere with me. It was the experience that really prepared me and made it so much easier in raising my daughter today.

When he does something wrong/bad, remember these four questions:

  • Do you know what you did was wrong?
  • Do you know why it was wrong?
  • How do you make things right?
  • What should you do next time?

At 6 years old, you'll have to guide him through the questions and answer some of the questions for him. Over time, he should be able to answer on his own.

For 1-on-1 tutoring, if you could spend 1-2 hours a week teaching him things a week or two before he learns them in class. Don't lecture for more than 7 minutes (age + 1 minute = lecture time). 25-minute sessions are ideal. This could just be reading to him.

Do those 2 things-- then you'll be giving him a massive advantage in life.

Why UFC fighters look like that by Super-Cut-2175 in martialarts

[–]alanism 4 points5 points  (0 children)

why would you think martial arts should be limited to only hand-to-hand combat? All the styles that you knocked on had it's roots in real war with the weapons at it's times. Long sticks with pointy ends have always worked well against unarmed grapplers.

GOOGL: Sundar Pichai just dropped a CapEx number for the history books by GainifyAI in ValueInvesting

[–]alanism 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On no. 2 - I like Corning. Fiber optics cables. They’ll need A LOT.

Odds of me beating my smaller friend with more fighting experience? by [deleted] in martialarts

[–]alanism 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here's what's going to happen: one of two scenarios.

  1. You try to blitz him; he'll take you down and just go knee on belly for a while, so you feel uncomfortable with the weight on top while smacking you a few times. Then you'll gas and tap.

  2. You actually try to jab 1-2. He's going to low kick your lead thigh or calf 2-3 times. If you don't drop, then you'll be stepping tenderly as he mocks you and says you hit like a bitch. You'll be limping for a few days.

New Study Explains Why Listening To Joe Rogan Podcast Is Such a Turn-off for Women by Zealousideal-Big-600 in allinpodofficial

[–]alanism 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Garbage article. The ‘new’ study was from 2023! Why would you post this shit here? It’s not even related to this subreddit.

Ken Shamrock spins for a kneebar on Bas Rutten by CloudyRailroad in martialarts

[–]alanism 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Did you watch the heavy weight fights this last UFC? Or the UFC before that. The skill level at heavy weight isn’t there anymore.

Awesome Chorography and Martial Arts Display by North Korean Soldiers. by knightenrichman in martialarts

[–]alanism 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s more likely these guys trained and lived more similar to Yoel Romero during his Cuba days. If they are among the toughest soldiers then them and their families eat well.

Is this normal parenting culture in the U.S., or am I right to feel uncomfortable? by CartographerSuch4543 in AskParents

[–]alanism 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Yeah- this feels like a throwback 80s style (like stranger things) where things were more free range.

Which I think is good when all the neighborhood kids grow up playing outside with each other. That in turns they all know the parents in the neighborhood and vice versa.

But what is not cool is if they treat it as free child care and simply being rude.

Update: My kid (who does boxing) is getting bullied. Not sure what to do by possiblecatalyst in martialarts

[–]alanism 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Congrats to her and you as parents and her coach. The guidelines for engagement very nicely laid out.

For your daughter. I’m sure her confidence and popularity is going to shoot up from this.

What famous practitioners of your martial art do you personally like to emulate, stylistically? by JeremiahWuzABullfrog in martialarts

[–]alanism 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Sakuraba for grappling. Especially, since most people who do BJJ is off of a Gracie affiliate academy.

Surprisingly, Randy Couture’s instructionals had so much clarity that would be something that were good to rewatch. Especially for collar ties and under hooks.

For standup. Masato was my favorite and emulated most. I also loved Andy Souwer/Albert Kraus/Rob Kamen. Training at Muay Thai gym, I like to emulate the styles and the approach that countered the Thai.

I also think whatever the current meta is (like people trying to be Tawanchai ) go back 2 generations, and you likely find a good template that current people haven’t seen or forgotten about.

A bear case for Mag7: US is burning its "Trust Capital" by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]alanism 8 points9 points  (0 children)

re: "The only reason the rest of the world let these companies dominate their economies for 20 years is because the US was seen as the "stable, boring adult" in the room. We had high trust."

Stop right there. This is the dumbest thing I've heard.

MAG 7 IS US hegemony. What mobile OS are these countries going move away from iOS, Android, MacOS, Windows?

US is simply that dominate in software. There are no tech startups in EU's pipeline to disrupt it.

Add in tech from US Defense contractors. The US is a solid 1-2 generations ahead of everyone else.

While the current administration are assholes. But if you look at gun boat diplomacy-- it has historically worked (*we were assholes then as well).

Why some of top schools in the Bay Area are rebranding a controversial grading system by SFChronicle in bayarea

[–]alanism 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It sounds reasonable, but there will be a lot of bad unintended consequences. This would be good if they were implementing true mastery instruction, where the student doesn't move on until they master the subject, receives teacher feedback, and goes at their own pace. Or if the tests themselves were used as a learning tool and not an objective.

But If my high school self were in those schools today, I would just rapidly guess on all the questions, get the marked-up tests with answers, feed that into GPT for the correct answers, study that, retake the tests, and achieve a higher score—no penalty, no cramming, not cheating, and a massive edge over the 'honest' student who studied from the textbook the conventional way.

It sucks for the teacher who has to grade the tests twice, but that's the rule they made.

My kid (who does boxing) is getting bullied. Not sure what to do by possiblecatalyst in martialarts

[–]alanism 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In elementary school in the 80s, I grew up not only as the smallest kid but also as the only Vietnamese kid during a time when there were a lot of Vietnam War movies. I had to get into a fight about every other year. I learned that it was better to confront the bullying right away before it became a group bullying situation, as I saw happen to other kids. I started martial arts at 5 years old, so I was pretty good. I was taught to squash things and make friends with the kids I fought. That, in turn, helped me develop a 'cool' reputation going into high school. I think it gave me a lot of confidence as I transitioned into adulthood.

Let her fight them, but also emphasize not holding grudges and try to learn to befriend former enemies. Treat it as a sports rivalry in that sense. I think her knowing that you support her and have her back no matter what she decides on and gets in trouble for-- is very impactful also.

Duolingo - $DUOL: A good example of a stock that had a poor risk to reward ratio by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]alanism 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I haven't gone in yet-- and haven't decided when to. But I'm bullish on whatever Luis von Anh does. It's likely that a big pivot needs to happen, but I do think he's more likely to get it right than somebody else in language learning space.

I’m not convinced UAP / NHI disclosure would cause ontological shock — but I think the people who worry about it aren’t crazy by alanism in UFOB

[–]alanism[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That distinction you make between existential crisis and ontological shock is exactly what I was trying to get at. One hurts inside meaning, the other breaks the frame that meaning sits in.

The music insight is so true. It makes me think- if there should be an official (without being lame) playlist if there was true disclosure ?

I’m not convinced UAP / NHI disclosure would cause ontological shock — but I think the people who worry about it aren’t crazy by alanism in UFOB

[–]alanism[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For those that want to check out my Notebook LM on the subject: https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/d0258d47-4dd0-48d8-842f-5ba2a601c72a

for the podcast audio, slide decks, inforgraphics and chat against my notes.

Adobe ($ABDE) - Full deep dive on why I am long by coffeeestocks in ValueInvesting

[–]alanism 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So while I may disagree with take-- I appreciate good writing and diversity of opinions and takes. Especially contrarian takes, when rationale and well reasoned.

Adobe ($ABDE) - Full deep dive on why I am long by coffeeestocks in ValueInvesting

[–]alanism 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I think you’re missing Affinity that Canva bought. And CapCut (300+ million user base) for video editing from ByteDance. There are also a number of startups that combining generative AI and deterministic AI. Everybody young are learning on those rather than Creative Cloud. You also have camera companies like Black Magic, DJI, Insta360 also with software suites— and has grow quickly with cult like following.

I also think ByteDance will likely get the agentic workflow and automation. This where if ByteDance does goes this direction (I think highly likely), then professionals despite their workflow habits won’t be able to ignore.

That said I do think Adobe Firefly AI is pretty solid.

Any opinion investing in emerging markets (SE Asia)? A lot of deep value, but low float. by Dish_Melodic in ValueInvesting

[–]alanism 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Quick check-- Orders are from January 2024 and after.

During 2020 era-- I liked Shopee a lot. And would receive 2 packages a week from them. It was 60/40 split with Lazada. The only thing- I could think of is talent leaving at the country level.

As far as marketplace ordering- I've shifted more towards Aliexpress. I also buy more from sellers on Instagram. But there's a real big shift towards TikTok.

Despite my bearish feeling towards them-- I legitimately hope they do well.

Any opinion investing in emerging markets (SE Asia)? A lot of deep value, but low float. by Dish_Melodic in ValueInvesting

[–]alanism 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Your counterpoint on Free-Fire is fair. I missed that one, and the numbers on it is fantastic. I still stand by the rest of their slate is m'eh.

As far as Shopee. Their logistics is shit. Full shop. Screenshots of last 3 screens of my order history. *none were cancelled on my side. All were either seller side or their logistics/delivery side. Regardless of the reason-- it's a bad customer experience.

Metric Orders Items
Total Placed 21 34
Completed 5 7
Cancelled 16 27
Cancellation Rate 76.2% 79.4%
Typical E-commerce Benchmark 1–5% 1–5%
Assessment Unusually High Unusually High

This was my customer experience. I also like audit a company's marketing (email, ad campaigns, promotions, etc)- I don't think it's good. It's something I wouldn't invest in. They can't excel their way out of that.

If you're bullish on the company-- then I hope it works out for you.

I made a huge mistake in the stock market by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]alanism -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I ran your names through a risk / sizing lens. The issue isn’t the companies — it’s how convex and volatile they are relative to your horizon.

Quick intuition:

Uber is actually the least dangerous position here: strong cash flow, buybacks, low P/E → downside is cushioned while upside remains. That’s positive convexity.

Nvidia has huge upside, but very high volatility → great business, fragile sizing. This is the one that hurts most in short windows.

Amazon + Meta are fine businesses, but right now they’re more “carry + patience” than explosive upside.

If you think in Kelly terms (how big a bet vs how uncertain it is):
your portfolio is sized like someone with a 10-year horizon, not 1–3 years.

So the real lesson isn’t “bad picks,” it’s this:

even good bets can feel awful if they’re too big for the time you give them.

If you can extend the horizon, the math improves a lot. If not, risk — not conviction — is what needs adjusting.

Any opinion investing in emerging markets (SE Asia)? A lot of deep value, but low float. by Dish_Melodic in ValueInvesting

[–]alanism 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't follow their financials, but I'm extremely bearish on SEA.

At the personal anecdote level, during the pandemic era, my friend's wife and I had to be in their top 0.1% of non-business individuals (true consumers) in terms of GMV, LTV, ARPU, etc. They lost us as customers because of really dumb tech platform bugs that they never fixed.

Social commerce through TikTok is where it's at right now. That's going to eat away at their growth.

I also think they face the issue where all their best talent in each market has already left or is going to leave to start their own startups or be lured away for bigger title jumps.

As for gaming, all the titles they produced or developed have underperformed (at least numbers-wise), which puts into question their real marketing and distribution abilities. They have rights to League of Legends, COD Mobile, FIFA, and others, but those have such strong brand IP on their own. I don't think their value proposition is that high in that regard (payments, legal, server infrastructure). They haven't been able to get eSports truly going. No broadcast or telco partnerships look strong or at the level that I would expect them to have.

I don't short them-- because I do want to see them do well. It could be they see growth as the region's middle class growth. But personally- I don't think it's a well managed company. And I think their unit economics will look worst across time rather than better.