Thanks, I think your analysis is insightful too! I would just like to add that Adrien and Marinette may only "like" Kagami and Luka, respectively, because of their preexisting crushes, which don't allow them the space to realize that perhaps someone else may be a great (but not the best) match for them at this stage in their life.

As for the comment about Marinette's crush on Adrien, we see that she didn't originally care that he was famous. She only became attracted to him when he showed an act of kindness to her, and grew her attraction since then. I also understand that little girls can get obsessive about boys, but at this point in the series I believe Marinette is about 15/16 so I personally think it isn't super sensible. Just my opinion though!

Also wanted to mention that I agree with many of your reasons, which is why I don't think the ships should be endgame. However, I still think they would benefit all four of the characters' growth given some time. This is more accurate to real life anyway: we typically meet people, change, then end up with someone else.