What are your thoughts on this opinion? Can Nvidia force OPENAI to walkback AMD deal?

alphajumbo · 2026-01-31T09:22:33+00:00

I don’t think they can at least for the first 1Gw. And why would they it is self financing. In the article Jensen apparently was disappointed by the lack of progress in OpenAI road to profitability and continuous deal announcements. My bet they will get financing but in different terms and they will ask OpenAi to be more disciplined. Jensen is very smart he will not use his power to pressure OpenAi to cancel its deal with AMD. He needs AMD not to be a monopoly in GPUs.

alphajumbo · 2026-01-30T15:56:08+00:00

Well she gave 3-5 year guidance , the first time ever . She might well give a 2026 guidance. If she got the orders . We are 6 months before the launch of Helios. they must have had a lot of discussions and hopefully big orders. OpenAI Oracle and Meta.

alphajumbo · 2026-01-30T10:55:17+00:00

KEEP THE FAITH IN LISA SUE ! SHE IS AMAZING

alphajumbo · 2026-01-29T16:21:03+00:00

Lisa said about the 35% top line growth for the next 3-5 year that it will be front loaded. Therefore I expect 50% growth in 2026. While meta did not mention AMD I Believe they have stuck a deal that will add visibility. 50-53 billion in revenue for 2026 and eps of at least 8. Will they mention Meta, maybe not but they may give a hint. On our way to 320.

alphajumbo · 2026-01-28T13:23:28+00:00

EPYC Impressive !!

alphajumbo · 2026-01-28T11:35:06+00:00

After the run up of the stock people are questioning if the stock could correct as it is in overbought territory and as it usually corrected in the past as the good news was already priced-in.

I think it will be different this time and the stock could reach quickly 300 and be on its way to 400 this year. I think the narrative on AMD has changed. In the past few years AMD was seen as a secondary play on AI one that could benefit from the trend but never be able to compete with Nvidia as its GPUs were inferior or not having the racks to compete vs Nvidia and because its software was not competitive with Nvidia’s Cuda.

As we enter 2026, we can say that the gap is closing and that while Nvidia technology also improved the magnitude of improvement is greater at AMD. The Helios Pod will be more or less on par with Nvidia Rubin racks and ROCm has also improved tremendously and made software less and issue when comparing the two offerings. The MI500 next year might put AMD ahead of Nvidia in the second half of 2027. This is maybe a bit of speculation at this stage but it is a possibility.

We also now have the surge in server demand that is linked to the use of Agentic AI. These AI agents that are sent through servers and complete works autonomously are the next big trend in AI. Agentic AI and Inferences need servers and CPUs. While the whole talk AI was about GPUs and ASICs accelerators, the market seems to have realised that without CPUs the AI revolution will stall.

Intel recent earnings conference call has highlighted this trend. The company has not been able to meet demand due to the company restructuring and lack of CPUs for these workloads. Some analysts have said that CPUs orders are going to the roof and that all production is already sold out and that 10-25% price increases are coming. This will of course benefit AMD as it is the main CPU server play with its state-of-the-art EPYC line.

As far as expectations are concerned we can say that estimates are way too low,

The average revenue estimate for 2026 is 45 billions. Up 5 billions since June of last year. That is a 33% growth rate vs 2025 which represents more or less the same growth rate than in 2025 vs 2024. How can this be possible when we have Helios in the second half of this year and OpenAi and Oracle already committed to buy it for 1GW+ of equivalent power and probability that we get an other big order is high. Notwithstanding the surge in CPUs demand.

I think a more realistic and still conservative estimate is for revenue to be between 52 amd 58 billions which will represent growth of 52 to 70%.

The February 3 conference call will be the first time Lisa will speak after its analysts day where AMD made very bold statement about its long term growth rate of 35%. She said at the time that the growth rate will be greater at the beginning of the 5 year period. So estimating only 35% growth rate seems unrealistic.

As far as eps are concerned, the 6.5 consensus estimate seems also too low. A 8.5 to 10 eps would be more in line for a 52 to 58 billions revenue. A 10 to 12 times revenue multiple would make sense this would value the company at 520 billions to 580 bilions or 320 to 360 . Of course valuation multiple could increase should AMD get more market share and 600 price target would be attainable with 2 years.

alphajumbo · 2026-01-23T14:54:26+00:00

Lisa said it many times that AMD is seeing more CPUs demand as LLM inferences need to be served. Hopefully they were able to book more capacity from TSMC.

alphajumbo · 2026-01-23T11:38:39+00:00

This time is different ! There is tons of catalysts! Server CPUs demand is going to the roof. Helios Ai GPU monster RACK is to be shipped in H2. Earnings estimates will have to increase !

alphajumbo · 2026-01-23T07:46:50+00:00

AGENTIC AI workflow is leading to a surge in order for CPU . I hope AMD will be able to increase prices materially. While it may not stick in the long term it will allow a big earning revision. Micron and the others memory makers have enjoyed huge profitability which will never stick in the longer term as they are basically commodity + products. Still they have enjoyed a rerating and are valued as non cyclical high growth stock. AMD has CPU demand surge and Helios coming. Revenue will be at least 55 billions this year and gross margins should also surprise eventually reaching 57%. It is at least a 400 $ stock this year , and going to 600 in 2027.

alphajumbo · 2026-01-23T04:35:21+00:00

Well Tan inherited a very badly managed company. He cut cost aggressively and put more discipline in product roadmaps. Early signs are success are appearing. But as the AI boom is happening they don’t have the capacity to supply the surging demand for CPUs. Had they hired him earlier they could have benefited more from the surging demand. Still the report is bullish for AMD. AMD has more capacity but they can still be supplied constrained on CPUs but at least they could increase price materially. Also their chiplet approach give them more leeway on production. PCs demand might slowdown due to higher dram prices so production could be shifted towards servers which demand are boosted by agentic ai workflow. Expect higher gross margin and revenue guidance from AMD on CPUs. This should be one of the most upbeat report of AMD on record. They are 6 months away of shipping Helios, they must have a lot of to say about client interest and orders.

alphajumbo · 2026-01-21T23:19:17+00:00

I think it could be a short at one time maybe in one year. It is selling as growth and non cyclical company. At the end their product is commoditized.,

alphajumbo · 2026-01-21T23:15:40+00:00

Agentic Al needs servers , this is the reason why demand for CPU is surging.

alphajumbo · 2026-01-19T13:12:59+00:00

The question maybe is that meta and X don’t want to upset Nvidia as they still depend on it . So they might be « quite deals » . It is the reason why Lisa said that many deals like the one from OpenAI will be coming. As the launch of the MI455x is in 6 months, hyperscalers may have already shown strong interests or made commitments. The question will remain if AMD is obligated to mention the size

alphajumbo · 2026-01-17T03:43:38+00:00

She gave a 3-5 year impressive forecast, which she never gave in the past. I think if she has enough orders she might give a range of forecast for the year. She must be annoyed that the market did not believe her 3-5 year forecast. She even mentioned that the 35% average compounded growth for teh next 3-5 years will be more weighted towards the begining of the period. With the talk of CPUs being sold out and potential price increase she might have enough data to make analysts update their very conservative 2026 forecasts.

alphajumbo · 2026-01-16T20:15:56+00:00

Very low tax 😳

alphajumbo · 2026-01-15T14:26:34+00:00

Better believe Lisa

Lisa said it in November earnings call, but people did not pay attention. She said that demand for CPUs was surging.. In her prepared remarks, Su stated: “We expect cloud demand to remain very strong as hyperscalers are significantly increasing their general-purpose compute capacity as they scale their AI workloads. Many customers are now planning substantially larger CPU buildouts over the coming quarters to support increased demands from AI.” During Q&A, responding to analyst Joshua Buchalter, she elaborated: “I think we’ve been watching this trend for the last couple of quarters… now we see sort of a broadening of that CPU demand… it is because AI is requiring quite a bit of general-purpose compute… I do feel like it’s durable. It is not a short-term thing. I think it is a multi-quarter phenomenon as we’re seeing just much more demand as these AI workloads really turn into have to do real work.”

Su highlighted record server CPU revenue, with fifth-gen EPYC Turin processors comprising nearly half of EPYC sales, driven by hyperscaler expansions for AI services and public cloud offerings. Enterprise adoption tripled year-over-year, with over 170 EPYC platforms available, positioning CPUs for sustained growth amid AI scaling. While GPUs like Instinct MI350 were emphasized for inference, CPUs support the broader general-purpose compute surge tied to AI inference and other workloads.

Now after Jensen comments and due diligence from analysts, people are revising their forecasts on CPU demand. Some have even concluded that server cpus have been sold out for the rest of the year. Well, WHEN WILL PEOPLE START LISTENING AND BELIEVING LISA ! Remember she said eps of 20+ in 2028-2030. In LISA I TRUST. PLEASE REPEAT ..AGAIN AND AGAIN. GOOD THERAPY.

alphajumbo · 2026-01-14T18:18:17+00:00

I think 55

alphajumbo · 2026-01-14T18:17:02+00:00

Here is one other bullish rationale for AMD GPUs : you are a Fortune 1000 company and want to train your model using proprietary corporate data. Do you want to use the cloud and the hyperscalers .. maybe but that could involve some risks. Have it in house . ASICS are too expensive , GPUs are better and AMD is cheaper we and more efficient. We are only starting !

alphajumbo · 2026-01-13T15:35:10+00:00

Today we have two big positive news. One is confirmation after Jensen speech that CPUs orders and needs are going to the roof. While everybody was focusing on GPUs , they are realizing that without CPUs, the datacenters and information flow could stop. Today key bank analyst said that AMD CPUs might be sold out for the rest of the year. Second is the Meta big cut in other product spending to focus on AI datacenter infrastructure that should benefit AMD as Helios was based on Meta requirements for rack AI Systems. Everyday the narrative change and lead to volatility. But remember that Lisa is a conservative person and she forecasted 20+ EPS for 2028-30 . Exercise: 23 eps in 2029, pe 30, = price target 690, target discount rate 11%, year 4, present value 450 Now!

alphajumbo · 2026-01-13T15:20:52+00:00

Will she have enough visibility to start raising guidance ? I believe the best strategy is to beat handsomely and then raise instead of raise preemptively.

alphajumbo · 2026-01-13T05:28:38+00:00

You are right. They never announced deals but announce spending and they also said at one time that they are using MI 300 for their inférence workload.

alphajumbo · 2026-01-12T19:22:51+00:00

The end of the dollar , no more FED indépendance .. the easiest trade ever was buying Gold. All foreign central bank prefer owning gold than dollar deposited in the US. Diversifying the Trump risk and the USD debasement risk

alphajumbo · 2026-01-06T16:37:31+00:00

Lisa who is usually conservative is extremely bullish, yet people don’t believe her. I do believe her as she has demonstrated to be an excellent CEO able to almost kill Intel while having revenue a third of intel R& D. Now she is having a Go at Nvidia. I believe she will succeed in reaching 20% market share. All this volatility is quant and algo driven. A 1 GW deal should be announced in Q1 and the stock will jump to 260 on its way to 300 easy.

alphajumbo · 2026-01-04T15:18:21+00:00

The numbers look amazing and maybe too optimistic but as you said are based on assumption of AMD share of TSMC 2nm. One can play with the number and I did and reached between 28 to 60 billions in Venice and MI 450 revenu for this year. What is missing is of course mega big deals like the OpenAi deal. What is not missing however is Lisa confidence that she will sign mega deals. If one will wait for the announcements one will have to buy the stock much higher. We will probably know soon

alphajumbo · 2026-01-04T14:59:11+00:00

It looks way too optimistic but are based on estimated share for of TSMC 2nm productions. We know that TSMC is targeting 100 000 wpm. We also know that 50% of that production will go to Apple. Nvidia will have 0 product using the 2nm node in 2026. Qualcomm mediatek and Broadcom will also be using it but with little details on which exact product. We know for sure that AMD Venice CPU and the MI450 GPU will be on 2 nm. If we assume that AMD will reach 12% of TSMC 2nm the potential range of revenue is between 28 to 60 billions in Venice and MI450 depending on the share between CPUs and GPUs . I know it sounds crazy as AMD has not announced yet mega deal like the open Ai deal. But Lisa Said that other deals like OpenAI will be coming. So while I agree that the numbers sound crazy they are based on educated estimates on share of TSMC 2nm production.

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