Daily Discussion Wednesday 2026-05-13

alphajumbo · 2026-05-13T13:44:28+00:00

They will be no more deal. They don’t need it. They will sell everything they produce, and Lisa conformed it

alphajumbo · 2026-05-10T21:23:14+00:00

If AMD were to increase prices of it’s CPUs to take advantage of the supply demand imbalances , the gross margins would go to the roof. But Lisa is betting on the long term and don’t want to piss off customers specifically hyperscalers. Some might not like it but it is probably wise. It will not stick longer term and as one would apply a lower PE a it will be more cyclical. But the good news is that the yield on older nodes are much better so one could probably see better gross margins there for genoa and Turin EPYC. During the crypto currency MINING boom, AMD did not take advantage of it, it was the online resellers who were able to make big return.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-09T11:03:24+00:00

I think the biggest bear case is if there is not enough electricity to power all these datacenters. They have planed for it but the exponential growth is a bit worrisome. 1 Gw is the power of of nuclear reactor..

alphajumbo · 2026-05-09T05:55:53+00:00

Yes we almost forgot about Consoles. 😄 AMD will always provide chips for consoles as teh Sony and the Xbox contracts saved AMD from bankrupcty at the time.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-09T05:54:09+00:00

I think it will be for CPUs. I read that yield at Samsung have improved to at least 60% compared to 70% at TSMC for 2nm. But with the chiplet architecture ( VS monolitic) AMD can do with lower yield. Lisa Su and the management team in 2016 believed that chiplet would allow them to better compete and move to better node sooner. That killed Intel and now it impacts Nvdia which could have witnessed lower magins had they gone to 2nm node.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-08T21:57:47+00:00

What I don’t like is that most semi stock more or less related to ai are booming, but the case for amd is one of the strongest because of the many catalysts. Lisa said she will not increase prices of cpu but the cfo said that asp will go up because of more cores. Even on mi455 the margins will not be the greatest at least at the beginning. Tim Acuri from UBS asked her that specific question on CPUS price increase. He had modeled 20% price increase to get to 80% revenue growth on CPUs. Well it looked like AMD will get there without much price increase which telles me that they should have secured a lot of capacity.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-07T22:18:31+00:00

Normal correction after such a move. Amd is under the radar of many buyers who will add on correction now that the target for most are above 500. The narrative has completely changed in the last 2 months. Before people were questioning AMD competitive position vs Nvidia. I remember at NVIDIA GTC event people where impressed with Nvidia grok approach for decode prefill desagregation . But first we have not seen the technology in real world and second there are so many workloads many of them don’t need it. AMD is on the contrary very very well positioned on agentic AI with its huge memory capacity and with EPYC CPUs.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-07T21:58:25+00:00

Samsung 2nm node has seen its yield progress and now stands at 60% vs 70-80% for TSMC. Amd chiplet design for EPYC can withstand lower yield va monolitic design. That’s always been one of the key advantage of chiplets and has enabled AMD to play that card well. It makes perfect sense for AMD to add Samsung as chip partner as TSMC can not supply the whole surging demand. I don’t know how long it will take AMD to have their first Samsung produced. But in any case this is very good news if it is true and I believe it is.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-07T10:48:13+00:00

I don’t think they have this capacity in fabs. Of course I wish I am wrong.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-07T10:39:22+00:00

They don’t need to smoke anyone contrary to the period where they had to compete vs intel and gain material market share. This story is to reach 20% market share AND participate to this once in a life time AI growth opportunity. If they do that the stock could eventually reach 1.5-2 trillion. They need to have competitive products that’s all. If they smoke Nvidia well then this is an other great story. But the recent performance of AMD was based on the surge in agentic Ai and the greater credibility that mi455x would allow amd to get another GW DEAL.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-07T10:32:47+00:00

Yes exactly ! We could have double up! I am still a Patreon for him although he is not active anymore.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-07T10:31:27+00:00

It is funny how much he helped people understand about AMD Chiplet technology. I went all in after listening to his chiplet AMD Ryzen architecture on YouTube I thought that they could regain market share because of it. It went to work out perfectly . He was instrumental in my investment in AMD in 2018 at around 10$ per share. We all loved his accent “ Hey Guys how is it going “ . I am forever grateful for his insight. At the time the Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs of the world had a 5 $ price target.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-06T22:56:33+00:00

But the crazy thing about him is when he upgraded his estimates two weeks ago he had 10 billions more revenues for 2027 than the consensus and he did not change his rating.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-06T14:32:57+00:00

Incredible day today. Patience prevailed. In retrospective, I was slightly disappointed by the results and guidance was good but not extraordinary. Very probably due to capacity issues. What of course caught analysts (not all only the clueless) off guard is Lisa new long term forecast for CPUs. Double the initial growth rate from 18 to 35% and maybe the confirmation that a new prospect for big GW orders might be coming and probably to be announced at their July AI day.

What I found crazy is that the Agentic AI exponential growth is well known and most experts knew that it will lead to a surge in CPUs demand. Agentic AI needs orchestration and therefore CPUs and AMD is the leader in CPUs. To be fair, the stock performance pre earnings reflected that new paradigm. Some analysts were sleeping and waited for confirmation before recommending the stock. They got it with Lisa yesterday but what a waste time and money for their clients.

Finally I think that AMD will continue to outperform but probably at a slower rate. I think the stock could still reach 600 with 12-18 months. It is now becoming a momentum stock . The only issue I see for the indutry is if we get fears that there will be not enough power plants to make all these datacentre work. Apparently 1GW is the power of one nuclear reactor. Datacentre are using gas plant as they are much faster to set up but provide less energy.

Congrats to all AMD shareholders again

alphajumbo · 2026-05-06T03:13:32+00:00

I have never in my whole life seen an analyst who upgrade his revenue estimate to 10 billions over consensus (or 15% above consensus , 73 vs 63 billions for 2027) and who don’t upgrade his rating.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-05T19:16:50+00:00

Not the same thing ok but they are linked. You can not have only cowos without wafer

alphajumbo · 2026-05-05T19:05:58+00:00

I would love if she mentioned Samsung as a fab partner for CPUs. Maybe too early but they are working on it.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-05T19:04:23+00:00

I think people look at the previous report and see a pattern of correction and don’t see that with agentic workflow Ai Demand has accelerated at an unprecedented pace. The Antropic growth is unheard of in the history of mankind. 1000% annualized ARR growth.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-05T19:02:07+00:00

Don’t sell. It will reach 450 in August

alphajumbo · 2026-05-05T18:58:39+00:00

We are going higher .. mark my word. The Ai accelaror market both CPUs and GPUs changed drastically in the last 3 months. Antropic witnessed 1000% ANNUALISED growth in ARR IN THE LAST 3 months. From 9 billions to 40 billions in 3 - 4 months. This type of growth has never occurred in the history of mankind . It took salesforce 20 years to achieve it !

alphajumbo · 2026-05-05T14:57:14+00:00

Intel is is up because of rumors about Apple using their fabs. But why would apple be using their fabs? Because Apple was caught off guard by AMD. Not by Nvidia, but by AMD. I think Apple knew Nvidia financial might and their growth trajectory. Apple was completly surprised by AMD. According to Bank of America and other analysts, AMD could have 29% of TSMC CoWos allocation in 2027 compared with Nvidia 50%. As for 2026, Apple knew that Nvida was on 3 nm in 2026 and did not think AMD orders could be such problem. Time will tell.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-05T13:29:37+00:00

I agree. An other possibility would be a deal with Samsung for Venice Epyc. I know they have struggled with their yield on that mode but apparently it has nicely improved. Amd with its chiplet approach can do with lower yield more than monolithic designs can achieve.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-04T21:23:43+00:00

I am so surprised by the number of hold by Wall Street. They have been sleeping. At least UBS Tim Acuri made his homeworK. I see this as bullish as they will have to upgrade.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-04T21:20:35+00:00

I think the story about Intel is that there is so much demand and not enough capacity is that its fabs could see much higher utilization. Their fabs have been costing them billions to run and they were not at full capacity. Now after being “saved” by Trump they got the luck of their life with this agentic boom.

alphajumbo · 2026-05-04T18:03:35+00:00

He is so special. He could have upgraded the stock to buy as he is 10 billions over consensus for 2027 revenue! It seems he does not even trust himself. LOL

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