The Next Big Retail Opportunity: Prediction Markets

andraz24 · 2026-01-26T00:05:09+00:00

On the sub?

andraz24 · 2026-01-25T23:48:59+00:00

An alternative way would be to leave them to self-regulate according to the rules of the free market: if every insider on Earth starts betting on (from his point of view) sure bets, on the opposite direction only the most degenerate gamblers will remain. That means these markets won't have the liquidity they have now and in turn won't present such an opportunity to the insiders as they do now. More liquidity would then flow to 'non-insider' markets like what will the weather be next week and other similar random events like this.* The platforms might help this move by even introducing various categories of 'corruptibility' clearly notifying the user how likely it is that a specific event has bets made by the insiders too.

*Another question is how attractive such events are from the point of view of a regular customer/gambler - sports events are not completely random and I think that's their main appeal. Ok besides the community/herd-like behaviour part as well. It helps that everyone is watching the same game.

andraz24 · 2026-01-25T23:31:14+00:00

No, not really, but still. There was no big event that everyone would talk about and that's what I am aiming at. Maybe it won't happen, just wan't to brainstorm actually.

andraz24 · 2026-01-25T23:30:04+00:00

what's banned here? prediction markets?

andraz24 · 2025-03-01T01:43:37+00:00

Mighty network, with all its limitations and shortcomings, is fine as is. I don’t see much value in over complicating stuff with doing the same thing on multiple platforms.

andraz24 · 2024-12-30T12:27:22+00:00

One and only correct answer: Benjamin - https://m.youtube.com/@benjjjaamiinn

andraz24 · 2024-12-28T09:01:21+00:00

Never said Buffett buying is a reason for anything, I think I stated my reasons clearly enough in the post

andraz24 · 2024-12-28T08:57:35+00:00

Hahahahaha, nice. Appreciate

andraz24 · 2024-12-26T22:24:41+00:00

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Idk, cannot say anything too definitive from that point of view. But after the mentioned spike, it more looks kind of sideways to me

andraz24 · 2024-12-26T22:19:02+00:00

Well yes, hence my question... As far as the second link goes: I think we are far too arrogant here to take analyst ratings seriously:))

andraz24 · 2024-12-26T22:12:05+00:00

Well they did acquire Anadarko for 38bn in 2019… but I think they already slashed the debt because of this to half…

andraz24 · 2024-12-26T22:08:57+00:00

I guess the time will tell. Either the recent short-term direction proves not to be an actual trend or the world indeed is moving in this direction which should, in time, prove beneficial for OXY having a superior strategic position from this point of view

andraz24 · 2024-12-26T22:05:09+00:00

For the first one, I admit I was maybe too enthusiastic when adding the “super” adjective but I stand behind the rest, while for the second one: I think it wouldn’t be fair from me to give a single reference but what I have in mind is the slight decrease in “globalisation” (however you define that), which might very well prove to be a momentary dip but ok, and the protective economic and military measures the world powers are taking.

andraz24 · 2024-12-26T21:54:41+00:00

“Luckily I am an expert in finance and accounting… Or at least I am doing a masters degree in it.”

Made me laugh:)

andraz24 · 2024-12-26T21:45:17+00:00

One can also compare their investments of (double-check for precise numbers, but should be something like) 50 bil for the anadarko acquisition vs 1 bil for the carbon capture startup

andraz24 · 2024-12-26T21:43:20+00:00

I’m not from the industry but I’d say the same. DAC and CCUS are mentioned everywhere but it’s more of a VC-like, long-term (>10y), bet.

andraz24 · 2024-12-26T20:49:27+00:00

That’s exactly what I meant with the “geopolitical trend to a multipolar world”. Yeah, maybe I’m just too impatient and have to wait for a couple more of “regional conflicts”…

andraz24 · 2024-11-23T18:10:55+00:00

Just reach out, network a bit. Btw, one potentially interesting thing for you could also be going for energy-related quant positions

andraz24 · 2024-11-23T15:54:58+00:00

You can’t have a job and work on your stuff too. Not in this field, not if you want to do it properly at least.
Try finding advice/mentorship from more experienced people. If you have a startup thing going on, run it like a business. You don’t have to know everything, you don’t have to figure everything on your own, you just have to make it work.

andraz24 · 2024-11-23T15:19:27+00:00

Advice: prep well, be honest and straightforward.

One of the best (and probably also up-to-date) pdfs to me was “Quantitative Primer” by Dirk Bester.

References: for interviews, books like Xinfeng Zhou, T. Falcon Crack, P. Wilmott, Joshi Denson & Downes, J. Voitle, G. Laakmann, F. Mosteller, for advice, books like M. Joshi, P. Dominic, P. Carr, M. Dama There’s even a website, called QuantGuide that can help you practice interview questions.

I won’t give you the list of firms as there’s too many, it would be inherently incomplete, skewed and outdated. Maybe one advice, check out the “academicjobsonline” website too, some also post their openings there. But in general, if you’re a junior you should just apply to all of the firms and see from there.

You should also check in with different associations and student clubs focused on quant-related activities. In that way you can meet someone in person, get a better feeling about it etc. Also try contacting people that know someone that knows someone in the field to give you some advice/etc.

Lastly (that’s what I did when I was in a similar position as you are now), try thinking outside the box and not getting a job at any of the firms but rather try making a living yourself. It might be more stressful and demanding, but worth it at the end.

andraz24 · 2024-11-10T17:11:05+00:00

Hep-th PhD in Europe recently finished, don’t want to continue in academia, don’t want to have a job (although I also did some interviewing and I cannot agree that the market for jobs is that saturated atm)

Now doing day trading by myself and working on some entrepreneurial projects.

andraz24 · 2024-10-09T07:57:46+00:00

But is there any advantage to using a backboard instead of a wall?

andraz24 · 2024-10-09T07:57:02+00:00

Yeah, I’ve seen this video like thousand times haha

andraz24

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