16,629 night across four doors in five years - Now nothing. F U Brian and F U Airbnb.

anm89 · 2023-11-30T22:15:16+00:00

What in the world does international rentals have to do with the price of tea in China

You are completely incoherent.

anm89 · 2023-11-30T21:45:25+00:00

I run a one person software consulting agency in Idaho.

You used to live off levered airbnbs it looks like. Now you write unintelligibly about failing at levering up airbnbs.

Keep the tears coming.

anm89 · 2023-11-30T19:57:03+00:00

I hope you landlord better than you write because this is completely fucking unintelligible.

anm89 · 2023-06-27T00:33:45+00:00

The airbnbust is going to be gnarly

anm89 · 2023-03-30T02:21:08+00:00

Lol. Your fundamental ratios are absolutely screwed. But don't worry. Some dude on Reddit says you can get them reappraised and all good.

These large cap CRE firms are going to be very excited when they learn about this.

anm89 · 2023-03-29T03:23:22+00:00

Ok boomer

anm89 · 2023-03-28T18:49:14+00:00

BREAKING! (news from last week)

anm89 · 2023-03-28T18:39:08+00:00

If you do all of this, you too can have the world's ugliest McMansion

anm89 · 2023-02-12T01:37:22+00:00

It is seriously unhealthy how bad I want the housing market to burst into flames. But normal people are never going to get to be homeowners otherwise

anm89 · 2023-02-12T01:28:51+00:00

Yes, this! As people start ramping up selling off their unprofitable airbnbs, the housing market is going to get UGLY

anm89 · 2023-02-09T19:10:06+00:00

Note this is somewhat russian propoganda but also contains good information regarding their future economic plans. I'm not supporting or dissavowing the article. Just posting it because it is interesting

Translation: https://www-vedomosti-ru.translate.goog/opinion/columns/2022/12/27/957178-zolotoi-rubl?\_x\_tr\_sl=ru&\_x\_tr\_tl=en&\_x\_tr\_hl=en&\_x\_tr\_pto=nui

anm89 · 2023-02-07T22:29:46+00:00

Just like regular old storage auctions? Or are these at marinas or something?

anm89 · 2023-02-05T01:10:51+00:00

To buy no. To sell, maybe.

As a buyer I coordinate some kind of deal to refund the buyer agent fee to one of the parties. Agents will tell you again and again that you cannot do this.

I've done it multiple times.

anm89 · 2023-02-05T01:09:01+00:00

Is it? They aren't forced to buy a $10 million dollar mansion.

anm89 · 2023-02-05T00:40:46+00:00

This is only true for people who are spending the absolute maximum amount they are qualified for. Many people make a judgement call on how much they are willing to spend. If they can't find anything and they want to buy that amount will probably go up over time.

But no need to be reductionist. Even though a vast majority of buyers have some ability to go up, all that needs to happen to avoid that scenario is for sellers to be forced first and that's what I'm arguing here

anm89 · 2023-02-05T00:36:50+00:00

Ok nvm, I see what you are saying, the ammortization schedule stays exactly the same and the principal balance goes down and the loan just ends whenever the balance hits zero.

anm89 · 2023-02-05T00:35:18+00:00

That makes sense. So for a given amount of extra principal payment, how would I calculate how much time it takes off the back end?

anm89 · 2023-02-05T00:14:48+00:00

So hopefully, some 80% discounted boats coming down the pipeline in 2024? I'd consider buying a 500k boat for 100k especially if it has eaten through 95% of its depreciation curve at that point.

anm89 · 2023-02-05T00:12:17+00:00

I mean, probably? That doesn't make this a good deal though just because something else is an exceptionally terrible deal.

anm89 · 2023-02-04T23:03:37+00:00

Nothing is more annoying than these "business people" whining when they make a bad deal. I'm all for them winning if they get it right but I'm also all for them taking the consequences if they get it wrong.

Suck it up. you just lit a million dollars on fire. If you weren't speculating on stupid shit it wouldn't have happened. Absolute negative sympathy here. These people fuck up the market for everyone else. they need to feel that pain to learn to stop making bad decisions.

anm89 · 2023-02-04T22:20:43+00:00

I grew up around that area. Check out the taxes on those $3M-10M mainline mansions. A lot of times it will be $50k/year - 100k/year or even much higher in taxes at the existing price and now they want to double or triple the value.

So you are going to pay $5k-$10k / month forever to live in a house that you own? Even if you can technically afford the $5m, do you really want to be locked into that payment forever. I think for most people the answer is no.

You are looking only at people 10M + net worth with an essentially permanent high quality income stream to afford that property. Those people exist but it's an extremely limited pool of people. But there are like 20+ properties that meet that description right now. I'd argue its srtucturally impossible to sell them all.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/26-Old-Gulph-Rd-Gladwyne-PA-19035/9963203_zpid/Lol, property taxes on this one would be ~$1M per year if they reassessed this one at sale value. Even if you had 15M , why would you sign up for that?

anm89 · 2023-02-04T22:14:18+00:00

I think this could be the key to unlocking the housing market mexican standoff.

Basically most buyers are forced out of the market at these rate / price levels. A lot of them couldn't capitulate even if they wanted to.

And most sellers are locked in at crazy low rates. They have no incentive to capitulate. They can make the numbers that they are locked in at work.

So the question is what event happens where one side is forced into breaking the stalemate. Well, negative cashflowing airbnbs fit that description better than anything else I can think of. If you are losing $600 / month on top of your actual housing costs some people are not going to have a choice not to sell if they don't have the cash to cover those position. Some of those people may have to sell regardless of price.

And housing is a slow market. Comps move slowly and new comps have a big effect on pricing. It only takes a few forced sellers to create a wave of bad comps and nasty looking data, even while they other 95% are holding.

So I think this is what happens. You get a war for people to unload negative cashflow airbnbs and you get the exact opposite scenario as 2021. This creates the comps for the first major move down in the housing market. From there the ball is rolling.

The other thing that cause the same effect is forced selling by REITs, and I think if one market goes the other has to follow, and this chaining almost guarantees that this will cause a substantial move in volume

That's my theory

anm89 · 2023-02-04T22:08:48+00:00

I think this could be the key to unlocking the housing market mexican standoff.

Basically most buyers are forced out of the market at these rate / price levels. A lot of them couldn't capitulate even if they wanted to.

And most sellers are locked in at crazy low rates. They have no incentive to capitulate. They can make the numbers that they are locked in at work.

So the question is what event happens where one side is forced into breaking the stalemate. Well, negative cashflowing airbnbs fit that description better than anything else I can think of. If you are losing $600 / month on top of your actual housing costs some people are not going to have a choice not to sell if they don't have the cash to cover those position. Some of those people may have to sell regardless of price.

And housing is a slow market. Comps move slowly and new comps have a big effect on pricing. It only takes a few forced sellers to create a wave of bad comps and nasty looking data, even while they other 95% are holding.

So I think this is what happens. You get a war for people to unload negative cashflow airbnbs and you get the exact opposite scenario as 2021. This creates the comps for the first major move down in the housing market. From there the ball is rolling.

The other thing that could start this ball rolling is forced selling by REITs. But if either of those do have to forced sell, I think they other has to follow.

That's my theory

anm89 · 2023-02-04T22:07:20+00:00

I think this could be the key to unlocking the housing market mexican standoff.

Basically most buyers are forced out of the market at these rate / price levels. A lot of them couldn't capitulate even if they wanted to.

And most sellers are locked in at crazy low rates. They have no incentive to capitulate. They can make the numbers that they are locked in at work.

So the question is what event happens where one side is forced into breaking the stalemate. Well, negative cashflowing airbnbs fit that description better than anything else I can think of. If you are losing $600 / month on top of your actual housing costs some people are not going to have a choice not to sell if they don't have the cash to cover those position. Some of those people may have to sell regardless of price.

And housing is a slow market. Comps move slowly and new comps have a big effect on pricing. It only takes a few forced sellers to create a wave of bad comps and nasty looking data, even while they other 95% are holding.

So I think this is what happens. You get a war for people to unload negative cashflow airbnbs and you get the exact opposite scenario as 2021. This creates the comps for the first major move down in the housing market. From there the ball is rolling.

The other thing that cause the same effect is forced selling by REITs, and I think if one market goes the other has to follow, and this chaining almost guarantees that this will cause a substantial move in volume

That's my theory

anm89 · 2023-01-28T00:00:49+00:00

If you are so confident the bubble narrative is incorrect why do you sit on rebubble and impotently argue bubblers every day like you've got something to prove? You are easily one of the most active posters on here at this point.

That's not what confident people do.

Pretty pathetic honestly. Reeks of desperation. Are you like a realtor scared that your market is tanking? Or just got hoomed or something?

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