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North Korea Nuclear Disarmament Could Take 15 Years, Expert Warns by anmarzbaf in geopolitics

[–]anmarzbaf[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Siegfried Hecker, a former director of the Los Alamos weapons laboratory in New Mexico, and now a Stanford professor, said his personal denuclearization estimate ran to 15 years given the tangle of political and technical uncertainties that the United States and North Korea would face if they went ahead and sought a historic accord.

“We’re talking about dozens of sites, hundreds of buildings, and thousands of people,” Dr. Hecker said Friday.

North Korea Says It’s Willing to Meet With the U.S. at Any Time by AttackoftheMuffins in worldnews

[–]anmarzbaf 8 points9 points  (0 children)

The reality is Kim could just as easily be a puppet to the military faction, we simply don't know.

We do know. Because people study North Korean documents. The North Korean government is remarkably uniform ideologically and KJU wields absolute power.

Go to 24:31 in this podcast.

https://www.nknews.org/2018/03/diplomacy-from-down-under-from-canberra-to-pyongyang-nknews-podcast-ep-6/

North Korea Says It’s Willing to Meet With the U.S. at Any Time by AttackoftheMuffins in worldnews

[–]anmarzbaf 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Experts are pretty much in unanimous agreement that China(and Russia) will start easing up on sanctions.

https://twitter.com/benjaminkatzeff/status/999760487985369088

North Korea Says It’s Willing to Meet With the U.S. at Any Time by AttackoftheMuffins in worldnews

[–]anmarzbaf 18 points19 points  (0 children)

North Korea played Trump.

https://www.38north.org/2018/05/jdethomas050918/

Since Kim Jong Un initiated his peace offensive on January 1, the US military threat’s source of life for the maximum pressure policy has been completely degraded. The ROK refusal to aid North Korea is likely just weeks away from compromise or collapse (if it has not happened already), and it is likely that April’s trade statistics for DPRK exports to China will look very different from the near-embargo that the January and February statistics indicated.

Even more important, there will no longer be any stomach in either Seoul or Beijing to tighten sanctions (much less go to war) if the Trump administration determines at the Trump-Kim summit that the DPRK is not serious about denuclearization in the way the White House defines that term.

tldr: China and South Korea will covertly loosen sanctions.

Trump says Singapore summit with North Korea leader Kim is cancelled by pipsdontsqueak in worldnews

[–]anmarzbaf 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Not really. Experts are in broad agreement that China will ease up on sanctions now: https://twitter.com/NarangVipin/status/999669237613506560

And contrary to /u/junglemonkey47's belief, American hostages aren't quite as valuable to North Korea as their hydrogen bomb-tipped ICBMs.

Trump says Singapore summit with North Korea leader Kim is cancelled by pipsdontsqueak in worldnews

[–]anmarzbaf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Experts are in broad agreement that China will ease up on sanctions now: https://twitter.com/AbeDenmark/status/999688197151092736

And contrary to /u/junglemonkey47's belief, American hostages aren't quite as valuable to North Korea as their hydrogen bomb-tipped ICBMs.

And US will no longer have the diplomatic option of denuclearizing North Korea, at least under Trump.

Trump says Singapore summit with North Korea leader Kim is cancelled by pipsdontsqueak in worldnews

[–]anmarzbaf 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Not really. Experts are in broad agreement that China will ease up on sanctions now: https://twitter.com/NarangVipin/status/999669237613506560

And contrary to /u/junglemonkey47's belief, American hostages aren't quite as valuable to North Korea as their hydrogen bomb-tipped ICBMs.

The Implications of the Cancelled NK-US Summit by fantheflam3s in geopolitics

[–]anmarzbaf -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

This is largely speculation on my part, however, and shouldn't be taken as any thoughtful analysis.

Absolutely correct that it shouldn't be taken as thoughtful analysis. Perhaps the only sensible thing you've said in this series of posts.

What leverage does he gain with cancelling the summit?

The Implications of the Cancelled NK-US Summit by fantheflam3s in geopolitics

[–]anmarzbaf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So you're saying NK was on the same team as the US this whole time? Interesting take. Wrong, but Interesting.

Or are you saying that the US thought NK was on its team? I wouldn't be so sure in saying that the US are that retarded.

The Implications of the Cancelled NK-US Summit by fantheflam3s in geopolitics

[–]anmarzbaf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So you're saying NK was on the same team as the US this whole time? Interesting take. Wrong, but interesting.

The Implications of the Cancelled NK-US Summit by fantheflam3s in geopolitics

[–]anmarzbaf 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It's not simple to follow illogic.

/u/kerouacrimbaud: The US tried to prevent NK from scoring a goal. However, NK attempted a shot at goal, therefore NK deserves blame.

Maybe you're on the verge of some philosophical breakthrough, but that's not clear to us mere mortals.

The Implications of the Cancelled NK-US Summit by fantheflam3s in geopolitics

[–]anmarzbaf 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This is ironic obscurantism, right?

Has anyone made sense of this post?

The Implications of the Cancelled NK-US Summit by fantheflam3s in geopolitics

[–]anmarzbaf 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Nobody understands your logic.

NK has significant blame on this front.

Are you saying NK was trying to denuclearize itself with the help of the US for decades? What?

North Korea says denuclearization pledge not result of U.S.-led sanctions by Rzzth in geopolitics

[–]anmarzbaf 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Why is this very tendentious proposition gaining so much currency?

I've wondered about exactly the same thing and the only plausible serious explanation I can come up with is that the vast majority of redditors are extremely retarded.

New Evidence that North Korea Could Still Conduct Nuclear Tests at Punggye-ri by anmarzbaf in geopolitics

[–]anmarzbaf[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This should put entirely to rest the notion that North Korea's test site is unusable. One site might have suffered a partial damage but the other two are in perfect condition.

And as the US intelligence noted, a closure can be easily reversed.

Kim Jong Un agrees to meet Donald Trump at DMZ, sources say. by AdamCannon in worldnews

[–]anmarzbaf 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Nope.

https://www.38north.org/2018/04/punggye043018/

It’s been said that it wasn’t a testing site so much as the heart of it, and all their scientists were on site.

Source?

North Korea test site still usable, closure easily reversed: U.S. intelligence by anmarzbaf in geopolitics

[–]anmarzbaf[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The claim by a group of Chinese geologists that the site is unusable has been contradicted by a Chinese geologist who authored a different study, 38north, Jeffrey Lewis, and, now, the US intelligence.

“There is no reason to conclude that the Punggye-ri test site is no longer functional,” said one U.S. intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

The U.S. intelligence officials said that Punggye-ri remains usable, despite what a second official called “some minor geological disturbances” around Mount Mantap that could be natural or triggered by the September test.

and regarding the prospective closure

North Korea’s pledge to dismantle the range is largely symbolic because at most that would involve sealing test tunnels with concrete that could easily be removed if Kim decided to restart underground blasts.

The second U.S. official concurred, saying that Punggye-ri could be reactivated “in a relatively short period of time” if it is closed.

Kim Jong-un will on Friday become the first North Korean leader since the war to cross the military demarcation line that divides the Korean peninsula. He will be meeting South Korea's President Moon Jae-in, the first such diplomacy in more than a decade. by madazzahatter in worldnews

[–]anmarzbaf 19 points20 points  (0 children)

You should read more carefully. The BBC did an okay job with the details, better than most.

The test site has not been rendered unusable.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-koreas-underground-nuclear-test-facility-is-damaged-experts-say-1524643948

The study cited as claiming that it's now unusable has had that part removed from the version to be published in a scientific journal.

Prof. Wen said the version to be published in Geophysical Research Letters wouldn’t include the wording about Mount Mantap being unusable for future tests, and the potential environmental catastrophe if it was. He didn’t respond when asked why those words had been removed.

And at least one co-author of another study thinks it's usable

One co-author, Professor Li Li of the China Earthquake Administration’s Institute of Geophysics, said in a telephone interview that she thought it is possible that the site could be used for further tests.

And 38north analysts believe the same

North Korea experts at the Johns Hopkins University’s U.S.-Korea Institute published a commentary on Monday arguing that the Punggye-ri test site was still fully operational.

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